The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs.

The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem-solving across engineering, medicine, and mathematics at a fraction of historical compute costs. | Next API-pricing drop from frontier lab

Key catalyst: Next API-pricing drop from frontier lab

Watch events: Epoch AI cost-tracking; frontier-model API pricing

Epoch AI cost-per-FLOP tracking shows >40x/yr decline in frontier-model inference cost 2023-2026; OpenAI API pricing confirms directly.

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "exponential collapse",
  "mode": "OBSERVATION+FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Other",
  "context": "Wissner-Gross experience-curve framing. Couples with INF_043 (Andreessen intelligence-deflation faster than Moore's Law) and 235_014 (Altman 40x hyperdeflation). The 'AI experience curve' explicitly positions intelligence as a cumulative learning-curve asset.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "conv_cues": "framework-coining; explicit tipping-point claim",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026 ongoing",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-01-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-01",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moore's Law dynamics — an AI experience curve enables bulk problem",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "AI_016",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "Gemedy / MIT",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "granularity": "YEAR",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:18.207495+00:00",
  "source_refs": "29",
  "target_date": "2026-12-15T00:00:00",
  "display_date": "2026-04-29",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-21T00:00:00",
  "key_catalyst": "Next API-pricing drop from frontier lab",
  "parse_method": "Current-state observation",
  "domain_bucket": "AI",
  "episode_title": "Forecasting the Inference Epoch: Expert AI Predictions & Macroeconomic Trajectories (2023-2026)",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "source_report": "AI Predictions Search Plan.md (2026-04-21)",
  "appears_in_eps": "AI-RPT",
  "futurist_phase": "Phase 1 (2026)",
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 4,
  "report_evidence": "Anchor section: Economics of Compute / Collapse of Intelligence Costs.",
  "active_end_month": "2026-12",
  "recent_statement": "Wissner-Gross 2026 podcast commentary.",
  "watch_events_raw": "Epoch AI cost-tracking; frontier-model API pricing",
  "months_from_today": 8,
  "probability_layer": "Higher (in-flight)",
  "active_start_month": "2026-01",
  "december_dispersal": {
    "reason": "december_dispersal: domain=AI → 09/2026",
    "new_date": "2026-09-30",
    "old_date": "2026-12-31",
    "applied_at": "2026-04-30T16:28:34.304992+00:00"
  },
  "flag_nia_bracketed": false,
  "resolved_at_source": "validations_observed_at",
  "track_record_grade": "A-",
  "track_record_notes": "Wissner-Gross framework coining generally accurate; provocative framings sometimes aspirational.",
  "contradicting_notes": "Training capex still scaling super-linearly; cost-of-intelligence cost floor bounded by power and cooling, not silicon.",
  "flag_near_term_2027": false,
  "flag_high_conviction": true,
  "milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:50.491684+00:00",
  "reference_class_match": {
    "decision": "keyword_