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240_001predictionMarkets/Stocks$100T

NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027

Predictor: Jensen Huang · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source

Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
78.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
hit
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
Edges in / out
5 / 0
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 | Right here where I stand, I see through 2027 at least $1 trillion.

Verbatim quote

From episode "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse"
Right here where I stand, I see through 2027 at least $1 trillion.

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

Jensen Huang made $1T bookings through 2027 statement at NVIDIA GTC March 2026.

Predictor: Jensen Huang

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.808
Brier
0.0128
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 0
of 8 resolved
Hit rate
75.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Jensen Huang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus

Linked via embedding similarity 0.570

Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1

Base rate
50.0%
2/4 historical
Inside weight
0.530
TRF=0.67
Outside weight
0.470
pulling toward base rate
inside 92.0% → blend 78.5% -13.5pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 92%2026-04-292026-04-302026-04-30
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 78.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 overdue ⏱
  1. 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 78%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z78.5%+0.0pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.920 blend=0.785 w_in=0.53 ipo_trillion_plus
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z78.4%-13.6pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.920 blend=0.784 w_in=0.53 ipo_trillion_plus
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:17Z100.0%+21.5pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.785
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.21504,
  "inside_posterior": 0.78496,
  "validation_notes": "Jensen Huang made $1T bookings through 2027 statement at NVIDIA GTC March 2026.",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.78496,
  "resolution_evidence": "Jensen Huang made $1T bookings through 2027 statement at NVIDIA GTC March 2026.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.920-0.126
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.920-0.082
killerTK12
Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Revers
8.0%0.0500.920+0.065
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.920+0.031
killerTK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12.0%0.0500.920+0.031

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

BBAIGTLBSYMMARAAIIRBTSOUNCRCLRIOTNVDAFANUYXYZAMZNCOINGOOGLHOODIBMMETAMSFTORCLSHOPTSLAABBNY

Adverse (5)

EMBTLTLQDHYGMUB

Prerequisites (5)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK10$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
killerTK12Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29hitthesis_timeline_v1.0_importJensen Huang made $1T bookings through 2027 statement at NVIDIA GTC March 2026.

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.713manifoldNvidia closes at $… in May 2026?mentionspending2026-05-17
0.705manifoldWill Nvidia close above $225 on May 21, 2026 after earnings?45%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.683manifoldWill Google or NVIDIA be worth more on June 1?mentionspending2026-05-01
0.675gdeltwhy keep buying nvidia stock 160006739.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30
0.664manifoldWill Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?46%mentionspending2026-05-16
0.645polymarketWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?71%mentionspending2025-11-11
0.638polymarketWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?100%mentionspending2026-03-02
0.635manifoldHow much VRAM will NVIDIA 6090 (or closest equivalent Nvidia GPU) have?mentionspending2026-04-27
0.626manifoldWill Nvidia announce an N1/N1X Windows-on-Arm PC chip at its June 1 Computex keynote?75%mentionspending2026-05-09
0.621gdeltN82E16824281393?Item=N82E16824281393&cm sp=Homepage SS P2 24 281 393 04292026mentionspending2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$1 trillion",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "caveats": "Dave notes this is a trillion in bookings to be recognized over the life of the bookings, spread across two years",
  "context": "Right here where I stand, I see through 2027 at least $1 trillion Dave, a trillion bucks. >> It's not really a trillion. It's uh that's a trillion dollars of bookings that has to be recognized over the life of the bookings.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "Right here where I stand, I see through 2027 at least $1 trillion.",
  "conv_cues": "I see; at least",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Through 2027",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-01-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-01",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "240_001",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "sub_domain": "Stocks",
  "affiliation": "NVIDIA",
  "attribution": "THIRD_PARTY_CITATION",
  "episode_num": 240,
  "granularity": "YEAR",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.546704+00:00",
  "target_date": "2026-06-15",
  "display_date": "2026-04-29",
  "episode_date": "2026-03-21",
  "parse_method": "YEAR midpoint",
  "domain_bucket": "Markets",
  "episode_title": "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse",
  "fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F005",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "appears_in_eps": "240",
  "consensus_size": 9,
  "is_macro_claim": true,
  "macro_span_end": "2031-03",
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 4,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C10",
    "C2",
    "C3",
    "C5",
    "C6",
    "C8"
  ],
  "active_end_month": "2031-03",
  "macro_span_start": "2026-04",
  "cluster_avg_grade": 4.57,
  "months_from_today": 2,
  "repeat_cluster_id": "C006",
  "active_start_month": "2026-04",
  "december_dispersal": {
    "reason": "december_dispersal: domain=Markets/Stocks → 11/2026",
    "new_date": "2026-11-30",
    "old_date": "2026-12-31",
    "applied_at": "2026-04-30T16:28:34.304992+00:00"
  },
  "flag_nia_bracketed": false,
  "resolved_at_source": "validations_observed_at",
  "track_record_grade": "A-",
  "track_record_notes": "NVIDIA CEO; his capex/compute projections have been nearly perfectly calibrated over 2023-2026. Strong operator signal.",
  "flag_near_term_2027": true,
  "flag_high_conviction": true,
  "milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:49.472654+00:00",
  "reference_class_match": {
    "top_n": [
      {
        "id": "ipo_trillion_plus",
        "cosine": 0.57
      }
    ],
    "margin": 0.57,
    "best_id": "ipo_trillion_pl