Abundance will be achieved by 2035.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source
Prediction text
Abundance will be achieved by 2035. | Alex and I are going to be unveiling a paper we've been working on for some months. It's called solve everything. How do we get to abundance by 2035?
Verbatim quote
Alex and I are going to be unveiling a paper we've been working on for some months. It's called solve everything. How do we get to abundance by 2035?
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-02-22overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-04-15overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-06-06pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
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}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connecti — Salim Ismail | 33.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.049 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (4)
Prerequisites (2)
Dependents (1)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 238_058 | Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years | Macro/Economy | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2027-03-31 | [Capital Markets 2027-03] pansion vs consensus; productivity data [230_034] Abundance will be achieved by 2035. | pending |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.655 | manifold | Will 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030? | 68% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-29 |
| 0.651 | manifold | Will I be alive at the end of 2029? | 91% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.624 | manifold | Which of these will I achieve? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-24 |
| 0.592 | manifold | If we survive the singularity, will the average guy be able to get a catgirl harem with almost zero effort? | 20% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
| 0.584 | manifold | Will Corpus Christi "run out of water" by the end of 2030? | 44% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-23 |
| 0.577 | github_release | facebookresearch/balance 0.1.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2022-11-21 |
| 0.572 | polymarket | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | 51% | mentions | pending | 2026-03-30 |
| 0.566 | manifold | What goals will I achieve this week? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-10 |
| 0.555 | manifold | What goals will I achieve this week? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
| 0.555 | manifold | What goals will I achieve this week? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-25 |
Raw metadata
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"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
"mode": "ASPIRATION",
"role": "Host",
"caveats": "Conditional on making right choices",
"context": "we're going to be unveiling a paper we've been working on for some months. It's called solve everything. How do we get to abundance by 2035?",
"to_year": 2035,
"verbatim": "Alex and I are going to be unveiling a paper we've been working on for some months. It's called solve everything. How do we get to abundance by 2035?",
"conv_cues": "how do we get",
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"sub_domain": "Economy",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 230,
"granularity": "YEAR",
"target_date": "2026-06-15",
"display_date": "2026-07-29",
"episode_date": "2026-02-13",
"parse_method": "YEAR midpoint",
"domain_bucket": "Markets",
"episode_title": "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230",
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"appears_in_eps": "230",
"is_macro_claim": true,
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"total_mentions": 1,
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"ps_cluster_tags": [
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"active_end_month": "2027-03",
"macro_span_start": "2026-04",
"recent_statement": "April 11 2026 Moonshots: real estate + minerals retain value post-ASI. March 21 2026 Moonshots: 'five major AI labs worth trillions.' Abundance Summit 2026 March: Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO, WTF Moonshots live-streamed.",
"months_from_today": 2,
"active_start_month": "2026-04",
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"track_record_grade": "A-",
"track_record_notes": "Abundance thesis (cost of solar, genomics, compute collapsing) has been directionally vindicated over 15+ years. Specific timing sometimes early (Kurzweil's 2029 vs his 'singularity now' framing). Strong signal aggregator, less strong on original calls.",
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