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230_034predictionMacro/Economyabundance

Abundance will be achieved by 2035.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
50.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
Edges in / out
2 / 1
Tickers exposed
28

Prediction text

Abundance will be achieved by 2035. | Alex and I are going to be unveiling a paper we've been working on for some months. It's called solve everything. How do we get to abundance by 2035?

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230"
Alex and I are going to be unveiling a paper we've been working on for some months. It's called solve everything. How do we get to abundance by 2035?

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 50.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 overdue ⏱ · 1 pending
  1. 2026-02-22overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-04-15overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2026-06-06pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 50%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z50.2%+1.8pp
Network propagation: 48.5% → 50.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z48.5%+3.5pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 48.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z45.0%+6.7pp
Network propagation: 38.3% → 45.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z38.3%-17.4pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.383 blend=0.383 LLR=-0.704 κ=0.87 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.6650500679109432,
  "kappa": 0.8684,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.8109302162163288,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.2263863792163666,
  "bayes_factor": "2.0:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.5563561088760856,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 2,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8684,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.35210589988112995,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-22",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8684,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.35210589988112995,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-15",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.5344649524623397,
  "outside_weight": 0.4655350475376603,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3827657518153522,
  "posterior_logit": -0.4778254205458933,
  "predictor_brier": 0.02669,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3827657518153522,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3827657518153522,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.7042117997622599,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 14
}
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z55.6%-3.3pp
Network propagation: 58.9% → 55.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z58.9%-6.1pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 58.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK07
Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)
18.0%0.0500.650+0.040
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.650-0.002

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq238_058
Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectiSalim Ismail
33.0%0.5000.050-0.049

Ticker exposure

28 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SDGRRXRXMARACOURCRCLRIOTRLAYDOCNADUSSRFMUDMYZMCOINGDDYGOOGLHOODNFLXRDDTSHOPSPOTUBERXYZABT

Adverse (4)

MANIBMACNCHGG

Prerequisites (2)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK07Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)

Dependents (1)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq238_058Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 yearsMacro/Economy

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2027-03-31[Capital Markets 2027-03] pansion vs consensus; productivity data [230_034] Abundance will be achieved by 2035.pending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.655manifoldWill 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030?68%mentionspending2026-04-29
0.651manifoldWill I be alive at the end of 2029?91%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.624manifoldWhich of these will I achieve?mentionspending2026-04-24
0.592manifoldIf we survive the singularity, will the average guy be able to get a catgirl harem with almost zero effort?20%mentionspending2026-05-08
0.584manifoldWill Corpus Christi "run out of water" by the end of 2030?44%mentionspending2026-04-23
0.577github_releasefacebookresearch/balance 0.1.0mentionspending2022-11-21
0.572polymarket Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?51%mentionspending2026-03-30
0.566manifoldWhat goals will I achieve this week?mentionspending2026-05-10
0.555manifoldWhat goals will I achieve this week?mentionspending2026-05-18
0.555manifoldWhat goals will I achieve this week?mentionspending2026-05-25

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Conditional on making right choices",
  "context": "we're going to be unveiling a paper we've been working on for some months. It's called solve everything. How do we get to abundance by 2035?",
  "to_year": 2035,
  "verbatim": "Alex and I are going to be unveiling a paper we've been working on for some months. It's called solve everything. How do we get to abundance by 2035?",
  "conv_cues": "how do we get",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "by 2035",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-22",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-15",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-06",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Abundance will be achieved by 2035.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "230_034",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-29",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "238_058",
      "expected_date": "2033-04-24",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "sub_domain": "Economy",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 230,
  "granularity": "YEAR",
  "target_date": "2026-06-15",
  "display_date": "2026-07-29",
  "episode_date": "2026-02-13",
  "parse_method": "YEAR midpoint",
  "domain_bucket": "Markets",
  "episode_title": "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230",
  "fault_line_id": "F001, F006",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "appears_in_eps": "230",
  "is_macro_claim": true,
  "macro_span_end": "2027-03",
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 5,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C10",
    "C5",
    "C6"
  ],
  "active_end_month": "2027-03",
  "macro_span_start": "2026-04",
  "recent_statement": "April 11 2026 Moonshots: real estate + minerals retain value post-ASI. March 21 2026 Moonshots: 'five major AI labs worth trillions.' Abundance Summit 2026 March: Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO, WTF Moonshots live-streamed.",
  "months_from_today": 2,
  "active_start_month": "2026-04",
  "flag_nia_bracketed": false,
  "track_record_grade": "A-",
  "track_record_notes": "Abundance thesis (cost of solar, genomics, compute collapsing) has been directionally vindicated over 15+ years. Specific timing sometimes early (Kurzweil's 2029 vs his 'singularity now' framing). Strong signal aggregator, less strong on original calls.",
  "flag_near_term_2027": true,
  "flag_high_conviction": true,
  "milestones_phase2_at": "2026-05-01T18:14:45.244997+00:00",
  "milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:48.783342+00:00",
  "reference_class_match": {
    "decision": "keyword_filtered",
    "computed_at": "2026-04-30T01:49:13.796883+00:00",
    "best_id_unfiltered": "fda_breakthrough_label",
    "best_similarity_unfiltered": 0.53