XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr...

XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical track-record lesson: elite human superforecasters severely underestimated near-term algorithmic-systems progress pre-2023. | Next AI-benchmark milestone exceeding SF prior

Key catalyst: Next AI-benchmark milestone exceeding SF prior

Watch events: Next SF-community AI-capability calibration event

DeepMind AlphaProof + AlphaGeometry 2 achieved IMO silver 2024 + gold 2025; empirically forced XPT recalibration.

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

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  "conv_cues": "empirical tournament result; specific probability",
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  "source_report": "Futurist Predictions for 2026-2031.md (2026-04-22)",
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  "report_evidence": "Section: Calibrating Algorithmic Velocity.",
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  "recent_statement": "XPT 2022 + DeepMind IMO 2025 results.",
  "watch_events_raw": "Next SF-community AI-capability calibration event",
  "months_from_today": -9,
  "probability_layer": "Higher (in-flight)",
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  "december_dispersal": {
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  "resolved_at_source": "validations_observed_at",
  "track_record_grade": "A",
  "track_record_notes": "Critical calibration event for SF community; forced methodology update.",
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  "flag_high_conviction": false,
  "milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:50.857001+00:00",
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    "best_similarity_unfiltered": 0.579
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  "validation_status_raw": "CONFIRMED",
  "co