← Cockpit
CMQ_024predictionAI/Computetokens-per-watt

'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital economy.

Predictor: Jensen Huang

Prior probability
80.0%
Current probability
53.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
A
Resolution
in_progress
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
Edges in / out
6 / 0
Tickers exposed
0

Prediction text

'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital economy. | Tokens per Watt | Vera Rubin perf-per-watt disclosures

Key catalyst: Vera Rubin perf-per-watt disclosures

Watch events: Blackwell / Vera Rubin perf-per-watt benchmarks; hyperscaler DC efficiency disclosures.

Verbatim quote

From episode "The Global Architecture of Machine Intelligence: Exhaustive Synthesis of AI Compute, Memory & Quantum Predictions (2023-2026)"
Tokens per Watt

Resolution evidence

Status: in_progress

Blackwell / Vera Rubin architecture explicitly optimizes tokens/watt; hyperscaler RFPs evaluate per-watt token throughput.

Predictor: Jensen Huang

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.808
Brier
0.0128
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 0
of 8 resolved
Hit rate
75.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Jensen Huang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 80%2026-04-302026-05-022026-05-30
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 53.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 2 overdue ⏱ · 2 pending
  1. 2026-03-08overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-03-18hitVera Rubin + Groq LPU integration delivers 35x tokens-per-watt over GPU-only baseline
    How: NVIDIA demonstrates 35x tokens/watt improvement via Vera CPU + Rubin GPU + Groq LPU pipeline at GTC 2026
    Source: https://www.newegg.com/insider/nvidia-gtc-2026-part-2-vera-rubin-groq-and-the-hardware-that-runs-the-token-economy/conf 95%
  3. 2026-05-13overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  4. 2026-07-18pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingAMD MI400 Helios platform announces competing tokens-per-watt benchmark
    How: AMD publishes Instinct MI400/MI450 (Helios) tokens-per-watt benchmark to challenge Vera Rubin metric
    Source: AMD Advancing AI 2026 eventconf 75%
  6. 2026-07-01 → 2026-12-31pendingNVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 enters full production with 10x perf-per-watt vs Blackwell
    How: NVIDIA confirms Vera Rubin NVL72 in full production shipping H2 2026 with >=10x inference perf-per-watt vs Grace Blackwell per official disclosures
    Source: https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/rubin-platform-ai-supercomputerconf 95%
  7. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingHyperscaler RFPs explicitly require 'tokens per watt' as procurement KPI
    How: At least 1 hyperscaler (Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, AWS, Oracle) publicly references tokens-per-watt as a primary metric for AI hardware procurement
    Source: Earnings transcripts / data-center conference disclosuresconf 60%
  8. 2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingDOE / IEA adopts tokens-per-watt as data-center efficiency reporting metric
    How: US DOE or IEA includes 'tokens per watt' or analog metric in official data-center efficiency framework
    Source: DOE Data Center Efficiency Report; IEA energy outlookconf 40%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 54%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-30T22:15:00Z53.7%-8.0pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.537 blend=0.537 LLR=-0.327 κ=0.81 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.5881123843731557,
  "kappa": 0.8077,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Jensen Huang",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.47571661764684414,
  "bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.6167359075535193,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8077,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.32749416781896434,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-13",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.5883213309387909,
  "outside_weight": 0.4116786690612091,
  "posterior_prob": 0.5369879188501188,
  "posterior_logit": 0.1482224498278798,
  "predictor_brier": 0.01276,
  "inside_posterior": 0.5369879188501188,
  "blended_posterior": 0.5369879188501188,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.32749416781896434,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 8
}
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z61.7%-7.4pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.617 blend=0.617 LLR=-0.327 κ=0.81 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.6650500679109432,
  "kappa": 0.8077,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Jensen Huang",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.8032107854658085,
  "bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.6906608800016435,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8077,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.32749416781896434,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-08",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.5344649524623397,
  "outside_weight": 0.4655350475376603,
  "posterior_prob": 0.6167359075535193,
  "posterior_logit": 0.47571661764684414,
  "predictor_brier": 0.01276,
  "inside_posterior": 0.6167359075535193,
  "blended_posterior": 0.6167359075535193,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.32749416781896434,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 8
}
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z69.1%-4.1pp
Network propagation: 73.1% → 69.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z73.1%-6.9pp
Network propagation: 80.0% → 73.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12.0%0.0500.800+0.173
killerTK07
Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)
18.0%0.0500.800+0.128
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.800+0.113
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.800+0.076
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.800+0.038

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Prerequisites (6)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
correlateS_COMPUTE_10GW_2028Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028compute_scale
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK07Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)
killerTK10$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29partialthesis_timeline_v1.0_importBlackwell / Vera Rubin architecture explicitly optimizes tokens/watt; hyperscaler RFPs evaluate per-watt token throughput.

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.580edgar_8kPLUG POWER INC (PLUG) (CIK 0001093691)mentionspending2026-05-11
0.580edgar_8kPLUG POWER INC (PLUG) (CIK 0001093691)mentionspending2026-06-04
0.573edgar_8kAMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC (AEP) (CIK 0000004904)mentionspending2026-05-14
0.573edgar_8kAMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC (AEP) (CIK 0000004904)mentionspending2026-05-05
0.557github_releasefacebookresearch/balance 0.6.0mentionspending2023-04-05
0.549edgar_8kBlink Charging Co. (BLNK) (CIK 0001429764)mentionspending2026-05-11
0.542edgar_8kEnphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) (CIK 0001463101)mentionspending2026-05-15
0.534edgar_8kKeysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS) (CIK 0001601046)mentionspending2026-05-19
0.521edgar_8kKBR, INC. (KBR) (CIK 0001357615)mentionspending2026-05-05
0.521edgar_8kKBR, INC. (KBR) (CIK 0001357615)mentionspending2026-05-18

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "Performance metric derivative of 'tokens are raw material' thesis; aligns chip efficiency with energy-constrained scaling.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "Tokens per Watt",
  "conv_cues": "defining KPI; CEO",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026+",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-08",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Vera Rubin + Groq LPU integration delivers 35x tokens-per-watt over GPU-only baseline",
      "source": "https://www.newegg.com/insider/nvidia-gtc-2026-part-2-vera-rubin-groq-and-the-hardware-that-runs-the-token-economy/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.newegg.com/insider/nvidia-gtc-2026-part-2-vera-rubin-groq-and-the-hardware-that-runs-the-token-economy/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-18",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-18",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NVIDIA demonstrates 35x tokens/watt improvement via Vera CPU + Rubin GPU + Groq LPU pipeline at GTC 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-13",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-30T22:15:00.756418+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "AMD MI400 Helios platform announces competing tokens-per-watt benchmark",
      "source": "AMD Advancing AI 2026 event",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "AMD publishes Instinct MI400/MI450 (Helios) tokens-per-watt benchmark to challenge Vera Rubin metric"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital economy.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "CMQ_024",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 enters full production with 10x perf-per-watt vs Blackwell",
      "source": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/rubin-platform-ai-supercomputer",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/rubin-platform-ai-supercomputer",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-07-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NVIDIA confirms Vera Rubin NVL72 in full production shipping H2 2026 with >=10x inference perf-per-watt vs Grace Blackwell per official disclosures"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Hyperscaler RFPs explicitly require 'tokens p
... (truncated)