'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital economy.
Predictor: Jensen Huang
Prediction text
'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the modern digital economy. | Tokens per Watt | Vera Rubin perf-per-watt disclosures
Key catalyst: Vera Rubin perf-per-watt disclosures
Watch events: Blackwell / Vera Rubin perf-per-watt benchmarks; hyperscaler DC efficiency disclosures.
Verbatim quote
Tokens per Watt
Resolution evidence
Blackwell / Vera Rubin architecture explicitly optimizes tokens/watt; hyperscaler RFPs evaluate per-watt token throughput.
Predictor: Jensen Huang
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Jensen Huang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-03-08overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-03-18hitVera Rubin + Groq LPU integration delivers 35x tokens-per-watt over GPU-only baselineHow: NVIDIA demonstrates 35x tokens/watt improvement via Vera CPU + Rubin GPU + Groq LPU pipeline at GTC 2026Source: https://www.newegg.com/insider/nvidia-gtc-2026-part-2-vera-rubin-groq-and-the-hardware-that-runs-the-token-economy/conf 95%
- 2026-05-13overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-07-18pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingAMD MI400 Helios platform announces competing tokens-per-watt benchmarkHow: AMD publishes Instinct MI400/MI450 (Helios) tokens-per-watt benchmark to challenge Vera Rubin metricSource: AMD Advancing AI 2026 eventconf 75%
- 2026-07-01 → 2026-12-31pendingNVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 enters full production with 10x perf-per-watt vs BlackwellHow: NVIDIA confirms Vera Rubin NVL72 in full production shipping H2 2026 with >=10x inference perf-per-watt vs Grace Blackwell per official disclosuresSource: https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/rubin-platform-ai-supercomputerconf 95%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingHyperscaler RFPs explicitly require 'tokens per watt' as procurement KPIHow: At least 1 hyperscaler (Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, AWS, Oracle) publicly references tokens-per-watt as a primary metric for AI hardware procurementSource: Earnings transcripts / data-center conference disclosuresconf 60%
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingDOE / IEA adopts tokens-per-watt as data-center efficiency reporting metricHow: US DOE or IEA includes 'tokens per watt' or analog metric in official data-center efficiency frameworkSource: DOE Data Center Efficiency Report; IEA energy outlookconf 40%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
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],
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}Raw metadata
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}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.800 | +0.173 |
| killer | TK07 Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | 18.0% | 0.050 | 0.800 | +0.128 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.800 | +0.113 |
| killer | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | 25.0% | 0.050 | 0.800 | +0.076 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.800 | +0.038 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Prerequisites (6)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| correlate | S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 | Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028 | compute_scale | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK07 | Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | — | — |
| killer | TK10 | $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | partial | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Blackwell / Vera Rubin architecture explicitly optimizes tokens/watt; hyperscaler RFPs evaluate per-watt token throughput. |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.580 | edgar_8k | PLUG POWER INC (PLUG) (CIK 0001093691) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.580 | edgar_8k | PLUG POWER INC (PLUG) (CIK 0001093691) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-04 |
| 0.573 | edgar_8k | AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC (AEP) (CIK 0000004904) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
| 0.573 | edgar_8k | AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC (AEP) (CIK 0000004904) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.557 | github_release | facebookresearch/balance 0.6.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2023-04-05 |
| 0.549 | edgar_8k | Blink Charging Co. (BLNK) (CIK 0001429764) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.542 | edgar_8k | Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) (CIK 0001463101) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-15 |
| 0.534 | edgar_8k | Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS) (CIK 0001601046) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-19 |
| 0.521 | edgar_8k | KBR, INC. (KBR) (CIK 0001357615) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.521 | edgar_8k | KBR, INC. (KBR) (CIK 0001357615) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Cited-Executive",
"context": "Performance metric derivative of 'tokens are raw material' thesis; aligns chip efficiency with energy-constrained scaling.",
"to_year": 2030,
"verbatim": "Tokens per Watt",
"conv_cues": "defining KPI; CEO",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "2026+",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
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"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
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},
{
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"expected_date": "2026-03-18",
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},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
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{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
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"source": "AMD Advancing AI 2026 event",
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},
{
"kind": "event",
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{
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},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Hyperscaler RFPs explicitly require 'tokens p
... (truncated)