The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape.

The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. | SpaceX IPO / Morgan Stanley space-index product launch

Key catalyst: SpaceX IPO / Morgan Stanley space-index product launch

Watch events: Next MS space-team update; SpaceX IPO or public listing event

Current $350B base with ~8-10% CAGR reaches ~$1T by 2040. Starlink, AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab all tracking trajectories consistent with thesis.

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  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$1 trillion",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "MS Space Team flagship forecast, anchor for the broader space-economy thesis. Couples with AI_018 ($2.9T DC construction), SPC_002 (SpaceX valuation), SPC_003 (Space 60 framework).",
  "to_year": 2040,
  "conv_cues": "institutional flagship forecast; specific $ and year",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2040,
  "timeframe": "by 2040",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.7,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "S_IPO_TRILLION_2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-30",
      "observed_date": null
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    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: First $1T+ IPO in 2027",
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      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "S_IPO_TRILLION_2027",
      "expected_date": "2027-09-30",
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    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
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      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2040-03-01",
      "observed_date": null
    },
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      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
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      "status": "pending",
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      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
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      "expected_date": "2040-07-01",
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    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product i",
      "status": "pending",
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      "source_id": "SPC_001",
      "expected_date": "2040-08-31",
      "observed_date": null
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  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "Morgan Stanley Space Team",
  "attribution": "CITED",
  "granularity": "YEAR",
  "source_refs": "1, 2",
  "target_date": "2040-12-15T00:00:00",
  "display_date": "2040-08-31",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-21T00:00:00",
  "key_catalyst": "SpaceX IPO / Morgan Stanley space-index product launch",
  "parse_method": "YEAR endpoint",
  "domain_bucket": "Space",
  "episode_title": "Strategic Forecasts in Space, Satellites, and Propulsion: 2023-2026 Retrospective and Future Outlook",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": false,
  "source_report": "Space Prediction Research Plan.md (2026-04-21)",
  "appears_in_eps": "SPC-RPT",
  "futurist_phase": "Phase 3 (2029+)",
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 4,
  "report_evidence": "Anchor section: Macroeconomics of Orbit / Trillion-Dollar Frontier.",
  "active_end_month": "2040-12",
  "recent_statement": "MS 2026 space-sector outlook upgrade.",
  "watch_events_raw": "Next MS space-team update; SpaceX IPO or public listing event",
  "months_from_today": 176,
  "probability_layer": "Base-case",
  "active_start_month": "2040-01",
  "december_dispersal": {
    "reason": "december_dispersal: domain=Space → 10/2040",
    "new_date": "2040-10-31",
    "old_date": "2040-12-31",
    "applied_at": "2026-04-30T16:28:34.304992+00:00"
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  "flag_nia_bracketed": false,
  "track_record_grade": "A-",
  "track_record_notes": "MS thematic industry forecasts directionally accurate.",
  "contradicting_notes": "Macro recession, launch-failure streaks, orbital-debris crisis could compress timeline; Chinese competitive dynamics introduce downside scenarios.",
  "flag_near_term_2027": false,
  "flag_high_conviction": true,
  "milestones_phase2_at": "2026-05-01T21:36:15.951454+00:00",
  "milestones_derived_a