239_031predictionBiotech/Longevitysynbio

Ben Lamb / Colossal could engineer a Pikachu-like creature

Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#239 "Elon Musk: The Economy Will Be 10x the Size in 10 Years | #239" · source

Prior probability

45.0%

Current probability

40.6%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

3/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-04-30 – 2031-12-31

Edges in / out

1 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Ben Lamb / Colossal could engineer a Pikachu-like creature | Someone asked him recently if he can make a Pikachu and he said probably.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Musk: The Economy Will Be 10x the Size in 10 Years | #239"

Someone asked him recently if he can make a Pikachu and he said probably.

Predictor: Ben Lamm

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.688

Brier

0.0043

excellent

Hits / Misses

2 / 0

of 3 resolved

Hit rate

66.7%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

2 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 40.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 6 pending

2026-02-13hitLamm reaffirms 2028 mammoth birth target at WGS 2026
How: Ben Lamm public statement confirms first mammoth birth still on track for 2028
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 92%
2026-04-30hitColossal announces bluebuck added to de-extinction roster (5th species)
How: Colossal Biosciences publicly announces a new species (bluebuck) joining its de-extinction lineup
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 96%
2027-03-27pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-09-01 → 2028-06-30pendingColossal publishes peer-reviewed paper on novel-trait genetic engineering (beyond ancestral resurrection)
How: Colossal-affiliated peer-reviewed paper demonstrates de novo trait engineering (e.g., bioluminescence, novel coat patterns) in a vertebrate
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
2028-02-22pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
2028-01-01 → 2029-06-30pendingFirst woolly mammoth born to Asian elephant surrogate
How: Colossal publicly confirms live birth of mammoth-genome elephant calf
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
2029-01-19pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2028-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingColossal or competitor announces first chimeric/de-novo designer creature program (e.g., novel mammal with non-ancestral traits)
How: Public announcement of bioengineering program targeting an unprecedented engineered organism with traits not present in ancestor (Pikachu-like proxy)
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 25%
2029-12-17pendingBen Lamb / Colossal could engineer a Pikachu-like creature
2029-06-01 → 2031-12-31pendingFirst reportable engineering of a 'novel creature' (significantly outside species ancestor) in mammal or bird
How: Peer-reviewed publication or Colossal announcement of vertebrate organism engineered with traits not within natural ancestral genome (Pikachu-equivalent fictional-creature proxy)
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 15%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 41%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.6%-1.5pp

Network propagation: 42.1% → 40.6%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z42.1%-2.9pp

Network propagation: 45.0% → 42.1%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	15.0%	0.050	0.450	-0.016

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

27 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (22)

ILMN ABCL DNA NTLA SDGR PACB RXRX RLAY TXG TWST ABSI CRSP MDT ABT AZN BABA BNTX GEHC GOOGL MSFT SMMNY TEAM

Adverse (4)

DVA FMS PFE NVO

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
killer	TK13	Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	—	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5KCm_55xeQ",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "Someone asked him recently if he can make a Pikachu and he said probably.",
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "Someone asked him recently if he can make a Pikachu and he said probably.",
  "conv_cues": "probably",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "future, unspecified",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Lamm reaffirms 2028 mammoth birth target at WGS 2026",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "source_url": "https://www.euronews.com/2026/02/13/bringing-back-extinct-species-is-the-most-exciting-thing-in-2026-says-colossal-founder-at-",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-13",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-13",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Ben Lamm public statement confirms first mammoth birth still on track for 2028"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal announces bluebuck added to de-extinction roster (5th species)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.96,
      "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/colossal-biosciences-species-extinction-bluebuck",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal Biosciences publicly announces a new species (bluebuck) joining its de-extinction lineup"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-27",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal publishes peer-reviewed paper on novel-trait genetic engineering (beyond ancestral resurrection)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Biosciences",
      "expected_date": "2027-08-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal-affiliated peer-reviewed paper demonstrates de novo trait engineering (e.g., bioluminescence, novel coat patterns) in a vertebrate"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-02-22",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First woolly mammoth born to Asian elephant surrogate",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.denofgeek.com/culture/colossal-woolly-mammoth-on-track-2028-de-extinction-evolves/",
      "expected_date": "2028-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-06-30",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal publicly confirms live birth of mammoth-genome elephant calf"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2029-01-19",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",

... (truncated)