245_015predictionBiotech/Longevitysynbio

Colossal could theoretically create Pikachu (engineer novel designer organisms)

Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source

Prior probability

45.0%

Current probability

40.6%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

3/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-04-30 – 2032-12-31

Edges in / out

1 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Colossal could theoretically create Pikachu (engineer novel designer organisms) | someone asked you, could you create Pikachu, and you said, yeah, we could probably create Pikachu.

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)"

someone asked you, could you create Pikachu, and you said, yeah, we could probably create Pikachu.

Predictor: Ben Lamm

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.688

Brier

0.0043

excellent

Hits / Misses

2 / 0

of 3 resolved

Hit rate

66.7%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

2 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 40.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 8 pending

2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingColossal completes mammoth gene editing (~85 genes) ready for embryo implantation
How: Colossal Biosciences confirms via press release or peer-reviewed publication that all ~85 mammoth genes have been edited and embryos are ready for implantation in elephant surrogate (currently 25/85 edited per April 2026 reporting)
Source: llm_enrichedconf 60%
2027-05-18pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFirst mammoth-edited embryo implanted in elephant surrogate
How: Colossal announces first successful implantation of mammoth-edited embryo into elephant surrogate uterus with confirmed pregnancy — verified via company press release plus veterinary documentation
Source: llm_enrichedconf 55%
2028-06-05pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
2027-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingSynthetic biology demonstration of multi-locus designer trait combination (>100 simultaneous edits)
How: Peer-reviewed paper documents successful prime-edited or base-edited mammalian organism with >100 simultaneous functional gene edits producing novel composite phenotype not found in any existing species
Source: llm_enrichedconf 40%
2028-06-01 → 2030-06-30pendingFirst live mammoth birth (or fail) — primary milestone for de-extinction technology
How: Colossal Biosciences confirms first live birth of mammoth-edited calf, currently targeted for 2028 per company guidance; failure or extended delay would refute the broader engineered-organisms claim
Source: llm_enrichedconf 40%
2029-06-24pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2028-01-01 → 2032-12-31pendingMajor regulatory framework explicitly addresses designer organism creation
How: FDA, EMA, or comparable national regulator publishes guidance or rule explicitly addressing engineered novel-species or designer-organism creation distinct from existing GMO frameworks
Source: llm_enrichedconf 45%
2030-07-13pendingColossal could theoretically create Pikachu (engineer novel designer organisms)
2030-01-01 → 2035-12-31pendingFirst synthetic-genome-derived mammal demonstrating non-natural trait combination
How: Peer-reviewed publication documents creation of mammal carrying entirely synthetic chromosome or gene clusters expressing traits never observed in any natural species — closest scientific analog to 'Pikachu-class' designer organism
Source: llm_enrichedconf 15%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 41%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.6%-1.5pp

Network propagation: 42.1% → 40.6%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z42.1%-2.9pp

Network propagation: 45.0% → 42.1%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	15.0%	0.050	0.450	-0.016

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

27 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (22)

ILMN ABCL DNA NTLA SDGR PACB RXRX RLAY TXG TWST ABSI CRSP MDT ABT AZN BABA BNTX GEHC GOOGL MSFT SMMNY TEAM

Adverse (4)

DVA FMS PFE NVO

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
killer	TK13	Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	—	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.559	arxiv	Nonthermal leptogenesis via cosmological gravitational particle production is tested by inflationary gravitational waves	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-06

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "someone asked you, could you create Pikachu, and you said, yeah, we could probably create Pikachu.",
  "verbatim": "someone asked you, could you create Pikachu, and you said, yeah, we could probably create Pikachu.",
  "conv_cues": "probably could",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal completes mammoth gene editing (~85 genes) ready for embryo implantation",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal Biosciences confirms via press release or peer-reviewed publication that all ~85 mammoth genes have been edited and embryos are ready for implantation in elephant surrogate (currently 25/85 edited per April 2026 reporting)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-05-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First mammoth-edited embryo implanted in elephant surrogate",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2027-10-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal announces first successful implantation of mammoth-edited embryo into elephant surrogate uterus with confirmed pregnancy — verified via company press release plus veterinary documentation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-06-05",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Synthetic biology demonstration of multi-locus designer trait combination (>100 simultaneous edits)",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2028-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed paper documents successful prime-edited or base-edited mammalian organism with >100 simultaneous functional gene edits producing novel composite phenotype not found in any existing species"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First live mammoth birth (or fail) — primary milestone for de-extinction technology",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2029-06-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-06-30",
        "from": "2028-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal Biosciences confirms first live birth of mammoth-edited calf, currently targeted for 2028 per company guidance; failure or extended delay would refute the broader engineered-organisms claim"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": n
... (truncated)