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245_045predictionBiotech/Longevitysynbio

Colossal considers Colossal platform core will stay focused on biodiversity and de-extinction

Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
39.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2040-09-30
Edges in / out
2 / 0
Tickers exposed
24

Prediction text

Colossal considers Colossal platform core will stay focused on biodiversity and de-extinction | we are pretty myopically focused on biodiversity and deextinction at at the core.

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)"
we are pretty myopically focused on biodiversity and deextinction at at the core.

Predictor: Ben Lamm

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0043
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 39.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 8 pending
  1. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingColossal produces first mammoth-trait Asian elephant embryos
    How: Colossal announces and peer-publishes first viable mammoth-genotype Asian elephant embryos per public 2026 milestone
    Source: Den of Geek + Jerusalem Post 2025 coverage of Colossal 2026/2028 timelineconf 70%
  2. 2027-01-01 → 2029-12-31pendingColossal-formed spinout reaches $1B+ valuation in non-de-extinction adjacency
    How: Form Bio or successor Colossal spin-out reaches unicorn valuation in computational biology or therapeutics — would be evidence of platform DRIFTING from biodiversity core
    Source: Form Bio precedent (2022 spin-out, $30M); contrarian signal for predictionconf 45%
  3. 2028-10-25pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  4. 2027-06-01 → 2030-12-31pendingColossal announces no new pivot beyond de-extinction core (consistent w/ thesis)
    How: Three consecutive annual investor updates/press releases confirm 'biodiversity + de-extinction' as primary stated mission with no revenue diversification beyond ancillary spinouts
    Source: Lamm verbatim 'myopically focused on biodiversity'conf 60%
  5. 2028-01-01 → 2030-06-30pendingColossal launches first calf (mammoth or thylacine equivalent)
    How: Colossal publicly confirms first live de-extinction proxy birth (mammoth-trait calf, thylacine analog, or dodo proxy)
    Source: Colossal CEO Lamm announced target 'late 2028' for mammoth calfconf 55%
  6. 2031-04-22pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  7. 2030-01-01 → 2033-12-31pendingFirst scientifically validated reintroduction of de-extinct species into protected reserve
    How: Peer-reviewed publication and reserve announcement confirm release of >=1 de-extinct species (Colossal or competitor) into protected wildlife area
    Source: Colossal thylacine 8-year reintroduction estimate; cascade event for biodiversity-platform thesisconf 40%
  8. 2033-10-17pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 39%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z39.4%-1.9pp
Network propagation: 41.3% → 39.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z41.3%-3.8pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 41.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z45.0%-1.7pp
Network propagation: 46.7% → 45.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.7%-3.3pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS
ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff
60.0%0.5000.050-0.074
killerTK13
Biotech/Synbio Safety Event
15.0%0.0500.500+0.039

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

24 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (19)

ABCLNTLASDGRPACBRXRXRLAYDNATXGTWSTABSICRSPILMNMDTABTAZNBNTXGEHCGOOGLSMMNY

Adverse (4)

NVOFMSDVAPFE

Prerequisites (2)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqS_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUSASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoffasi_recursive_self_improvement
killerTK13Biotech/Synbio Safety Event

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "we are pretty myopically focused on biodiversity and deextinction at at the core.",
  "verbatim": "we are pretty myopically focused on biodiversity and deextinction at at the core.",
  "conv_cues": "myopically focused",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Ongoing",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal produces first mammoth-trait Asian elephant embryos",
      "source": "Den of Geek + Jerusalem Post 2025 coverage of Colossal 2026/2028 timeline",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://thedebrief.org/colossal-secures-200m-advancing-de-extinction-science-that-soon-could-resurrect-the-wooly-mammoth/",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal announces and peer-publishes first viable mammoth-genotype Asian elephant embryos per public 2026 milestone"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal-formed spinout reaches $1B+ valuation in non-de-extinction adjacency",
      "source": "Form Bio precedent (2022 spin-out, $30M); contrarian signal for prediction",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2028-07-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Form Bio or successor Colossal spin-out reaches unicorn valuation in computational biology or therapeutics — would be evidence of platform DRIFTING from biodiversity core"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-10-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal announces no new pivot beyond de-extinction core (consistent w/ thesis)",
      "source": "Lamm verbatim 'myopically focused on biodiversity'",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "expected_date": "2029-03-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2027-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Three consecutive annual investor updates/press releases confirm 'biodiversity + de-extinction' as primary stated mission with no revenue diversification beyond ancillary spinouts"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal launches first calf (mammoth or thylacine equivalent)",
      "source": "Colossal CEO Lamm announced target 'late 2028' for mammoth calf",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2029-03-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-06-30",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal publicly confirms first live de-extinction proxy birth (mammoth-trait calf, thylacine analog, or dodo proxy)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2031-04-22",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "First scientifically validated reintroduction of de-extinct species into protected reserve",
      "
... (truncated)