COD_SPC_004predictionSpaceEuropa-Clipper

Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

Prior probability

95.0%

Current probability

48.4%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

5/5

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-12-01 – 2026-12-31

Edges in / out

2 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.850

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from Codex Research Pack is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 48.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 3 pending

2025-03-01hitEuropa Clipper Mars gravity assist (March 2025 — preceding Earth flyby)
How: NASA confirms successful Mars gravity assist flyby in March 2025
Source: https://www.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/nasas-europa-clipper-uses-mars-to-go-the-distance/conf 99%
2026-06-01 → 2026-11-30pendingEuropa Clipper instrument deployment / cruise calibration phase
How: JPL confirms instrument deployment + magnetometer calibration prep for Earth flyby
Source: https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasas-europa-clipper-millions-of-miles-down-instruments-deploying/conf 95%
2026-11-30pendingScenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
2026-12-03pendingEuropa Clipper Earth gravity assist closest approach (~3,200 km)
How: NASA / JPL confirms Europa Clipper closest approach to Earth at ~2,000 mi (3,200 km) on Dec 3, 2026
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europa_Clipper + https://science.nasa.gov/mission/europa-clipper/mission-timeline/conf 97%
Notes: Specific scheduled date confirmed by NASA. Anchor of the prediction.
2026-12-23pendingEuropa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026
2026-12-15 → 2027-03-31pendingMagnetometer calibration data published from Earth flyby
How: NASA/JPL publishes magnetometer calibration results from Dec 2026 Earth flyby
Source: https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/NASAs_Europa_Clipper_Leverages_Mars_for_Critical_Gravity_Assist_999.htmlconf 85%
2026-12-15 → 2027-06-30pendingSpacecraft trajectory enters Jupiter-bound cruise post-flyby
How: JPL trajectory updates confirm post-Earth-flyby velocity boost on track for April 2030 Jupiter arrival
Source: https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraft/display.action?id=EUROPA-CLconf 95%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 48%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z48.4%-7.9pp

Network propagation: 56.3% → 48.4%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z56.3%-12.5pp

Network propagation: 68.7% → 56.3%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z68.7%-15.2pp

Network propagation: 84.0% → 68.7%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z84.0%-11.0pp

Network propagation: 95.0% → 84.0%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 — Peter Diamandis	37.7%	0.950	0.050	-0.107

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

2 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (2)

LMT NOC

Prerequisites (2)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	246_017	Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.	Space	—
correlate	S_MARS_2026	Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers

Expected by	Description	Status
2026-12-31	Europa Clipper Earth gravity assist	pending

Linked documents (8)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.700	codex_research_pack	NASA - Europa Clipper Mission Timeline	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.652	manifold	Will there be a data center on the moon Europa by EOY 2066?	35%	mentions	pending	2026-06-06
0.650	manifold	Will a rover from Earth land on the moon Ganymede by EOY 2046?	77%	mentions	pending	2026-05-02
0.609	manifold	Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Venus by EOY 2051?	68%	mentions	pending	2026-05-09
0.587	manifold	What is the green mop 2026 cutoff?	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-27
0.579	manifold	Will May 2026 be Denver snowiest month of the entire 2025 to 2026 winter season	24%	mentions	pending	2026-05-04
0.570	manifold	World cup 2026 winner	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-27
0.552	manifold	What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-19

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "pack_id": "codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Europa Clipper Mars gravity assist (March 2025 — preceding Earth flyby)",
      "source": "https://www.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/nasas-europa-clipper-uses-mars-to-go-the-distance/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.nasa.gov/missions/europa-clipper/nasas-europa-clipper-uses-mars-to-go-the-distance/",
      "expected_date": "2025-03-01",
      "observed_date": "2025-03-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA confirms successful Mars gravity assist flyby in March 2025"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Europa Clipper instrument deployment / cruise calibration phase",
      "source": "https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasas-europa-clipper-millions-of-miles-down-instruments-deploying/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasas-europa-clipper-millions-of-miles-down-instruments-deploying/",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-11-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "JPL confirms instrument deployment + magnetometer calibration prep for Earth flyby"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "S_MARS_2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Europa Clipper Earth gravity assist closest approach (~3,200 km)",
      "notes": "Specific scheduled date confirmed by NASA. Anchor of the prediction.",
      "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europa_Clipper + https://science.nasa.gov/mission/europa-clipper/mission-timeline/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": "https://science.nasa.gov/mission/europa-clipper/mission-timeline/",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-03",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA / JPL confirms Europa Clipper closest approach to Earth at ~2,000 mi (3,200 km) on Dec 3, 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "COD_SPC_004",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Magnetometer calibration data published from Earth flyby",
      "source": "https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/NASAs_Europa_Clipper_Leverages_Mars_for_Critical_Gravity_Assist_999.html",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/NASAs_Europa_Clipper_Leverages_Mars_for_Critical_Gravity_Assist_999.html",
      "expected_date": "2027-02-06",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-03-31",
        "from": "2026-12-15"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA/JPL publishes magnetometer calibration results from Dec 2026 Earth flyby"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Spacecraft trajectory enters Jupiter-bound cruise post-flyby",
      "source": "https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraft/display.action?id=EUROPA-CL",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "sour