Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor)

Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor) | Bitcoin has survived every existential threat ever thrown at it. This is just the latest, and the upgrade will come before the threat does.

Bitcoin has survived every existential threat ever thrown at it. This is just the latest, and the upgrade will come before the threat does.

Beneficiaries (17)

Adverse (2)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-CEO",
  "context": "the upgrade will come before the threat does",
  "to_year": 2029,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "Bitcoin has survived every existential threat ever thrown at it. This is just the latest, and the upgrade will come before the threat does.",
  "conv_cues": "will come",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Before 2029",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "BIP-360 (Pay-to-Merkle-Root) merged into Bitcoin BIP repository",
      "source": "https://crypto.news/is-bitcoin-quantum-safe/ - BIP-360 merged February 11, 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": "https://crypto.news/is-bitcoin-quantum-safe/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-11",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-11",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "BIP-360 (P2MR) post-quantum address scheme officially merged into Bitcoin's BIP repository"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "BTQ Technologies deploys functional post-quantum Bitcoin testnet",
      "source": "https://crypto.news/is-bitcoin-quantum-safe/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://crypto.news/is-bitcoin-quantum-safe/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-20",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-20",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "BTQ Technologies publicly releases Bitcoin Quantum testnet v0.3.0 demonstrating BIP-360 in operation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Bitcoin Core release with PQ migration tooling for mainnet",
      "source": "https://www.theblock.co/post/397556/bitcoin-researchers-propose-phased-sunset-of-legacy-signatures-to-address-quantum-risks",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.theblock.co/post/397556/bitcoin-researchers-propose-phased-sunset-of-legacy-signatures-to-address-quantum-risks",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Bitcoin Core release ships BIP-360 / BIP-361 wallet migration tooling targeted for mainnet readiness"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Bitcoin upgrade will come before quantum threat does (Saylor)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "247_038",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-22",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Bitcoin user-activated soft fork or signaling for PQ migration",
      "notes": "Adam Back pushes optional, Lopp pushes forced freeze in 5y. Activation timing uncertain.",
      "source": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/04/16/bitcoin-s-quantum-debate-splits-as-adam-back-pushes-optional-upgrades-over-forced-freeze",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/04/16/bitcoin-s-quantum-debate-splits-as-adam-back-pushes-optional-upgrades-over-forced-freeze",
      "expected_date": "2028-01-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Visible miner / node signaling event begins for BIP-360 (or successor) post-quantum activation on Bitcoin mainnet"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Cryptographically-relevant quantum
... (truncated)