If privacy is cooked, then crypto is cooked (private keys compromised).

If privacy is cooked, then crypto is cooked (private keys compromised). | if you think privacy is cooked, then you probably should infer that crypto is cooked as well. Uh your your private keys cooked. If you think privacy is cooked, therefore your holdings cooked.

if you think privacy is cooked, then you probably should infer that crypto is cooked as well. Uh your your private keys cooked. If you think privacy is cooked, therefore your holdings cooked.

Beneficiaries (11)

Adverse (2)

{
  "nia": true,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Conditional on privacy being cooked; explicit NIA disclaimer",
  "context": "if you think privacy is cooked, then you probably should infer that crypto is cooked as well. Uh your your private keys cooked. If you think privacy is cooked, therefore your holdings cooked. Cook cooked...it's not forward-looking financial advice. It's just pointing out informationally that if you think privacy is cooked, then you probably should infer that crypto is cooked as well.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "if you think privacy is cooked, then you probably should infer that crypto is cooked as well. Uh your your private keys cooked. If you think privacy is cooked, therefore your holdings cooked.",
  "conv_cues": "probably should infer",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Bitcoin BIP-360 (post-quantum addresses) activated on mainnet",
      "source": "Adam Back: 'BIP-360 migration tools target mainnet readiness Q2 2026'; activation likely later",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/04/08/bitcoin-s-quantum-threat-is-distant-but-migration-clock-is-ticking-says-adam-back-says",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Bitcoin BIP-360 or successor PQ-address proposal activated on Bitcoin mainnet (signal-bit transition complete) by Q2 2027 per current roadmap"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NIST IR 8547 final published deprecation timeline for ECDSA/RSA",
      "source": "NIST IR 8547 currently initial public draft; final publication is regulatory anchor",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://csrc.nist.gov/pubs/ir/8547/ipd",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NIST publishes final IR 8547 (Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards) confirming 2031 deprecation, 2035 disallow timeline"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Cryptographically-relevant quantum computer (CRQC) public demonstration",
      "notes": "Most aggressive claim — CRQC by Jun 2028 has very low probability.",
      "source": "Survey: 33% of experts >=50% probability CRQC by 2030-2035; pre-2028 milestone is leading signal",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.1,
      "source_url": "https://chaincode.com/bitcoin-post-quantum.pdf",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "IBM, Google, or PsiQuantum publishes peer-reviewed paper or NIST-confirmed demonstration of fault-tolerant quantum computer with >=1M logical qubits OR equivalent capability to factor 256-bit integers"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Major exchange or custodian (Coinbase, Binance, Fidelity Digital) loss event tied to private-key compromise >$1B",
      "source": "Wissner-Gross claim — privacy compromise → key compromise → holdings compromise",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.1,
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "ex
... (truncated)