COD_SPC_001predictionSpaceArtemis-replan

Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

Prior probability

62.0%

Current probability

43.9%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2027-01-01 – 2027-12-31

Edges in / out

2 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.850

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from Codex Research Pack is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 43.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 1 overdue ⏱ · 5 pending

2026-02-27overdueNASA Administrator confirms Artemis III pivots from lunar landing to Earth-orbit HLS/EVA test
How: NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman publicly confirms Artemis III revised plan: Earth-orbit lander tests instead of Moon landing
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III — Feb 27 2026 confirmation by NASA Adminconf 98%
2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingAxiom AxEMU spacesuit test flight readiness review completed
How: Axiom announces AxEMU EVA suit ready for test flight (Artemis III or ISS)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III — Axiom working toward AxEMU test flight in 2027conf 65%
2027-03-08pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-09-01 → 2027-09-30pendingSpaceX Starship HLS uncrewed orbital demonstration completed
How: SpaceX flies an uncrewed Starship HLS validation flight to LEO required for human-rating progression
Source: https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20250008728/downloads/25%2008%2026%20IAC_Creech%20BP-1.pdf — HLS Program statusconf 45%
2027-05-14pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
2027-07-20pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2027-09-25pendingArtemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing
2027-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingArtemis III launches as Earth-orbit HLS/AxEMU rendezvous test mission (no lunar landing)
How: Artemis III lifts off; mission profile is LEO rendezvous/docking with HLS lander(s) and EVA suit test, not lunar surface
Source: https://www.space.com/space-exploration/artemis/artemis-3-has-been-pushed-to-late-2027 — Artemis 3 pushed to late 2027conf 60%
2028-12-31pendingArtemis IV designated as first crewed lunar landing mission (2028)
How: NASA confirms Artemis IV is the first crewed Moon landing mission of the program
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program — Artemis IV tentatively first crewed lunar landing 2028conf 50%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 44%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z43.9%-1.3pp

Network propagation: 45.1% → 43.9%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z45.1%-2.6pp

Network propagation: 47.7% → 45.1%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z47.7%-5.1pp

Network propagation: 52.8% → 47.7%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z52.8%-9.2pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.528 blend=0.528 LLR=-0.377 κ=0.95 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.95,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Codex Research Pack",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.4895482253187058,
  "bayes_factor": "1.5:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.62,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.9309999999999999,
      "label": "NASA Administrator confirms Artemis III pivots from lunar landing to Earth-orbit HLS/EVA test",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.98,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.377488015648701,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-27",
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman publicly confirms Artemis III revised plan: Earth-orbit lander tests instead of Moon landing"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "prior_prob",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.5279857726219318,
  "posterior_logit": 0.1120602096700048,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "inside_posterior": 0.5279857726219318,
  "blended_posterior": 0.5279857726219318,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.377488015648701,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

Ticker exposure

4 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (4)

BA LMT NOC RTX

Prerequisites (2)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
correlate	S_MARS_2028	Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)	mars_uncrewed_landing	—
correlate	S_MARS_2031PLUS	Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers

Expected by	Description	Status
2027-12-31	Artemis III HLS/EVA suit Earth-orbit test mission	pending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.700	codex_research_pack	NASA - Charts More Reliable Course for America's Return to Lunar Surface	—	mentions	pending	2026-03-01
0.659	arxiv	Real-Time Retargeting Using Controllability Boundary for Chandrayaan-3 Lunar Landing	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-28
0.657	manifold	Which Starship Variants will fly before 2032	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-06
0.656	manifold	Which Rocket Launches Next? III	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.653	manifold	When will SpaceX first fly humans around the Moon?	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-26
0.648	arxiv	Decoupled Thrust-Axis Attitude Control Using Quaternions for Chandrayaan-3 Lunar Landing Mission	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-28
0.638	manifold	Will NASA Astronomy Picture of the Day mention the Moon when this resolves?	18%	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.631	manifold	Will Starship Flight 12 Achieve All Flight Goals?	52%	mentions	pending	2026-05-16
0.620	manifold	Will China fly people to the moon before Chinese New Year 2028?	36%	mentions	pending	2026-06-05
0.603	polymarket	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	22%	mentions	pending	2026-01-02

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "pack_id": "codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NASA Administrator confirms Artemis III pivots from lunar landing to Earth-orbit HLS/EVA test",
      "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III — Feb 27 2026 confirmation by NASA Admin",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.98,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-27",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman publicly confirms Artemis III revised plan: Earth-orbit lander tests instead of Moon landing"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Axiom AxEMU spacesuit test flight readiness review completed",
      "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III — Axiom working toward AxEMU test flight in 2027",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Axiom announces AxEMU EVA suit ready for test flight (Artemis III or ISS)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-08",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX Starship HLS uncrewed orbital demonstration completed",
      "source": "https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20250008728/downloads/25%2008%2026%20IAC_Creech%20BP-1.pdf — HLS Program status",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-09-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX flies an uncrewed Starship HLS validation flight to LEO required for human-rating progression"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-05-14",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-07-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Artemis III flies as an Earth-orbit HLS/EVA suit test mission in 2027, not a lunar landing",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "COD_SPC_001",
      "expected_date": "2027-09-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Artemis III launches as Earth-orbit HLS/AxEMU rendezvous test mission (no lunar landing)",
      "source": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/artemis/artemis-3-has-been-pushed-to-late-2027 — Artemis 3 pushed to late 2027",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "expected_date": "2027-10-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2027-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Artemis III lifts off; mission profile is LEO rendezvous/docking with HLS lander(s) and EVA suit test, not lunar surface"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Artemis IV d