SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced tim...

SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every dated Mars prediction since 2011 missed). Industry heuristic: multiply rocket/capsule engineering announced timelines by ~2.5x; treat Mars/Moon colonization dates as directional ambition only. | Next major missed planetary-timeline event

Key catalyst: Next major missed planetary-timeline event

Watch events: Updated milestone tracker; next cohort of dated SpaceX predictions

New Market Pitch dataset April 2026 covers 20 years of SpaceX public milestone claims. Falcon Heavy 5yr late, Crew Dragon 3yr late, Starship first orbital 21mo late confirm pattern.

Beneficiaries (17)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "16/31/53 split; 2.5x heuristic",
  "mode": "OBSERVATION",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "Empirical base-rate for all SpaceX and peer forecasts. First formal track-record quantification entry. Couples with all Shotwell/Musk Mars/lunar rows.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "conv_cues": "quantitative base-rate; empirical dataset",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2005,
  "timeframe": "2005-2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2010-05-02",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2015-08-31",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2020-12-29",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered overall — planetary milestones exhibit 0% on-time record (every",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "SPC_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "Space Economy Research",
  "attribution": "CITED",
  "granularity": "YEAR_RANGE",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:18.255718+00:00",
  "source_refs": "3",
  "target_date": "2026-04-15T00:00:00",
  "display_date": "2026-04-29",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-21T00:00:00",
  "key_catalyst": "Next major missed planetary-timeline event",
  "parse_method": "Retrospective observation",
  "domain_bucket": "Space",
  "episode_title": "Strategic Forecasts in Space, Satellites, and Propulsion: 2023-2026 Retrospective and Future Outlook",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "source_report": "Space Prediction Research Plan.md (2026-04-21)",
  "appears_in_eps": "SPC-RPT",
  "futurist_phase": "Phase 1 (2026)",
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 4,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C7"
  ],
  "report_evidence": "Anchor section: Historical Milestone Tracking / 2.5x Rule.",
  "active_end_month": "2026-12",
  "recent_statement": "SpaceX Milestone Tracker April 2026.",
  "watch_events_raw": "Updated milestone tracker; next cohort of dated SpaceX predictions",
  "months_from_today": 0,
  "probability_layer": "Higher (in-flight)",
  "active_start_month": "2005-01",
  "december_dispersal": {
    "reason": "december_dispersal: domain=Space → 10/2026",
    "new_date": "2026-10-31",
    "old_date": "2026-12-31",
    "applied_at": "2026-04-30T16:28:34.304992+00:00"
  },
  "flag_nia_bracketed": false,
  "resolved_at_source": "validations_observed_at",
  "track_record_grade": "B+",
  "track_record_notes": "Empirical compilation rigorously documented.",
  "contradicting_notes": "Methodology subjective (personal vs corporate attribution); overall directional signal robust.",
  "flag_near_term_2027": false,
  "flag_high_conviction": true,
  "milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:51.283155+00:00",
  "reference_class_match": {
    "top_n": [
      {
        "id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window",
        "cosine": 0.6688
      }
    ],
    "margin": 0.6688,
    "best_id": "mars