SPC_031predictionSpacelaunch-cost-reusability-kg

SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 2008 to under $1,000 today — a >15x reduction in <20 years, transforming space access economics and enabling the simultaneous hyper-deflation of launch cos...

Predictor: SpaceX

Prior probability

95.0%

Current probability

87.8%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

5/5

Signal quality

Resolution

hit

Window

2008-01-01 – 2026-10-31

Edges in / out

3 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 2008 to under $1,000 today — a >15x reduction in <20 years, transforming space access economics and enabling the simultaneous hyper-deflation of launch costs alongside cognitive intelligence costs. | Starship first operational commercial mission at <$500/kg

Key catalyst: Starship first operational commercial mission at <$500/kg

Watch events: Starship operational cost-per-kg achievement

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

Falcon 9 reusable launch ~$1,200-$1,500/kg confirmed; Falcon Heavy ~$950/kg; Starship roadmap <$100/kg. Pre-SpaceX Shuttle era ~$54K/kg.

Predictor: SpaceX

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.688

Brier

0.0011

excellent

Hits / Misses

3 / 0

of 3 resolved

Hit rate

100.0%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from SpaceX is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 87.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 3 overdue ⏱

2012-07-31overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
2017-02-28overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
2021-09-28overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-04-29hitSpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 2008 to under $1,000 today — a >15x reducti

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 88%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z87.8%-1.5pp

Network propagation: 89.3% → 87.8%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z89.3%-2.4pp

Network propagation: 91.7% → 89.3%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z91.7%-3.3pp

Network propagation: 95.0% → 91.7%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:18Z100.0%+10.7pp

resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.893

Raw metadata

{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.10702999999999996,
  "inside_posterior": 0.89297,
  "validation_notes": "Falcon 9 reusable launch ~$1,200-$1,500/kg confirmed; Falcon Heavy ~$950/kg; Starship roadmap <$100/kg. Pre-SpaceX Shuttle era ~$54K/kg.",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.89297,
  "resolution_evidence": "Falcon 9 reusable launch ~$1,200-$1,500/kg confirmed; Falcon Heavy ~$950/kg; Starship roadmap <$100/kg. Pre-SpaceX Shuttle era ~$54K/kg.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK15 SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure	12.0%	0.050	0.950	-0.036
killer	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	8.0%	0.050	0.950	-0.000

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

20 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (15)

KRMN BKSY RKLB ASTS MNTS FLY GSAT PL IRDM BA RTX AMZN NOC LHX LMT

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
correlate	S_MARS_2028	Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)	mars_uncrewed_landing	—
killer	TK15	SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure	—	—
killer	TK06	China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Validations (1)

Resolution events

Observed at	Status	By	Notes
2026-04-29	hit	thesis_timeline_v1.0_import	Falcon 9 reusable launch ~$1,200-$1,500/kg confirmed; Falcon Heavy ~$950/kg; Starship roadmap <$100/kg. Pre-SpaceX Shuttle era ~$54K/kg.

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.653	manifold	Will an all-reused European orbital launch vehicle reach orbit before 2040?	30%	mentions	pending	2026-05-15

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$15,600 → <$1,000 per kg",
  "mode": "OBSERVATION+FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "Empirical achievement underlying the $1T space economy thesis (SPC_001). Couples with AI_016 (Wissner-Gross AI experience curve), SPC_027 (Finn trillion-dollar agent economy).",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "conv_cues": "specific quantitative cost trajectory",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2008,
  "timeframe": "2008-2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2012-07-31",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2017-02-28",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2021-09-28",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit from $15,600 in 2008 to under $1,000 today — a >15x reducti",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "SPC_031",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "SpaceX",
  "attribution": "CITED",
  "granularity": "YEAR_RANGE",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:18.275409+00:00",
  "source_refs": "9",
  "target_date": "2026-04-15T00:00:00",
  "display_date": "2026-04-29",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-21T00:00:00",
  "key_catalyst": "Starship first operational commercial mission at <$500/kg",
  "parse_method": "Retrospective observation",
  "domain_bucket": "Space",
  "episode_title": "Strategic Forecasts in Space, Satellites, and Propulsion: 2023-2026 Retrospective and Future Outlook",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "source_report": "Space Prediction Research Plan.md (2026-04-21)",
  "appears_in_eps": "SPC-RPT",
  "futurist_phase": "Phase 1 (2026)",
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 4,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C7"
  ],
  "report_evidence": "Anchor section: Strategic Synthesis / Conclusion.",
  "active_end_month": "2026-12",
  "recent_statement": "SpaceX cost disclosures 2025-2026.",
  "watch_events_raw": "Starship operational cost-per-kg achievement",
  "months_from_today": 0,
  "probability_layer": "Higher (in-flight)",
  "active_start_month": "2008-01",
  "december_dispersal": {
    "reason": "december_dispersal: domain=Space → 10/2026",
    "new_date": "2026-10-31",
    "old_date": "2026-12-31",
    "applied_at": "2026-04-30T16:28:34.304992+00:00"
  },
  "flag_nia_bracketed": false,
  "resolved_at_source": "validations_observed_at",
  "track_record_grade": "A",
  "track_record_notes": "Cost-trajectory data well-documented.",
  "contradicting_notes": "Full-Starship cost economics unvalidated at operational cadence; cost-per-kg ranges vary by payload and orbit.",
  "flag_near_term_2027": false,
  "flag_high_conviction": false,
  "milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:51.343395+00:00",
  "reference_class_match": {
    "top_n": [
      {
        "id": "humanoid_commercial_volume",
        "cosine": 0.5261
      }
    ],
    "margin": 0.5261,
    "best_id": "humanoid_