COD_SPC_007predictionSpaceESCAPADE-New-Glenn

NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

Prior probability

75.0%

Current probability

43.4%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2027-09-01 – 2027-12-31

Edges in / out

4 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

NASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.850

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from Codex Research Pack is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 43.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 2 overdue ⏱ · 7 pending

2025-11-13overdueESCAPADE Blue + Gold launched on Blue Origin New Glenn rocket
How: Blue Origin New Glenn launches ESCAPADE Blue + Gold to L2 staging orbit on Nov 13 2025
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ESCAPADE — Launched on New Glenn 13 Nov 2025conf 99%
2025-11-24overdueESCAPADE captures first 'selfies' from L2 staging orbit
How: NASA Science blog publishes first imagery from ESCAPADE Blue/Gold confirming spacecraft health
Source: https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/escapade/2025/11/24/nasas-mars-bound-escapade-mission-captures-first-selfies/conf 99%
2026-11-30pendingScenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window
2026-11-30pendingEarth gravity assist: ESCAPADE flies ≤600 km of Earth and executes Mars escape burns
How: ESCAPADE Blue + Gold complete Earth flyby ≤600km altitude with Mars trans-injection burns confirmed
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ESCAPADE — Earth gravity assist Nov 2026conf 85%
2026-12-01 → 2027-08-31pendingMars trans-injection cruise telemetry confirms nominal trajectory toward Sep 2027 arrival
How: NASA confirms ESCAPADE on nominal trans-Mars trajectory with all subsystems healthy
Source: https://science.nasa.gov/mission/escapade/conf 80%
2027-09-20pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
2027-10-09pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
2027-10-28pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2027-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingMars Orbit Insertion: 11-minute burns place Blue + Gold in highly elliptical orbits
How: Both ESCAPADE spacecraft fire ~11-min capture burns and enter highly elliptical Mars orbits a few days apart
Source: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/03/260314030452.htm — twin probes, 11-min capture burns, fall 2027conf 70%
2027-11-16pendingNASA ESCAPADE arrives at Mars in fall 2027 after 2026 Earth gravity assist

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 43%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z43.4%-1.1pp

Network propagation: 44.5% → 43.4%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z44.5%-2.1pp

Network propagation: 46.6% → 44.5%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z46.6%-4.1pp

Network propagation: 50.7% → 46.6%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z50.7%-7.7pp

Network propagation: 58.3% → 50.7%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z58.3%-16.7pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=2 inside=0.583 blend=0.583 LLR=-0.763 κ=0.95 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.95,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Codex Research Pack",
  "total_llr": -0.8109302162163288,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 1.0986122886681098,
  "bayes_factor": "2.1:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.75,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 2,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.9405,
      "label": "ESCAPADE Blue + Gold launched on Blue Origin New Glenn rocket",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.3813399341757286,
      "expected_date": "2025-11-13",
      "measurement_criterion": "Blue Origin New Glenn launches ESCAPADE Blue + Gold to L2 staging orbit on Nov 13 2025"
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.9405,
      "label": "ESCAPADE captures first 'selfies' from L2 staging orbit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.3813399341757286,
      "expected_date": "2025-11-24",
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA Science blog publishes first imagery from ESCAPADE Blue/Gold confirming spacecraft health"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "prior_prob",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.583202122082219,
  "posterior_logit": 0.3359324203166526,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "inside_posterior": 0.583202122082219,
  "blended_posterior": 0.583202122082219,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.7626798683514572,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

Ticker exposure

2 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (2)

LMT NOC

Prerequisites (4)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
correlate	S_MARS_2028	Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)	mars_uncrewed_landing	—
correlate	246_054	Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions.	Space	—
correlate	S_MARS_2026	Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	—
correlate	S_MARS_2031PLUS	Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers

Expected by	Description	Status
2027-12-31	NASA ESCAPADE Mars arrival after 2026 Earth gravity assist	pending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.700	codex_research_pack	NASA - ESCAPADE begins journey to Mars on New Glenn	—	mentions	pending	2025-11-13
0.669	manifold	Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Mercury by EOY 2051?	69%	mentions	pending	2026-05-30
0.661	manifold	Will a rover from Earth land on the planet Venus by EOY 2051?	68%	mentions	pending	2026-05-09
0.629	manifold	Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027?	16%	mentions	pending	2026-06-04
0.623	manifold	Will New Glenn fly again in 2026?	9%	mentions	pending	2026-06-02
0.614	manifold	Best METR 80% Time Horizon before October 2026	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-04
0.606	manifold	Global Average Temperature June 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-01
0.590	arxiv	Attitude-Aided Linear Calibration of Triaxial Accelerometers	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-04
0.583	manifold	Will I get into any MATS tracks in the Autumn 2026 cohort?	21%	mentions	pending	2026-06-03
0.579	manifold	Confirmed Ebola case in North America by EOY 2026?	42%	mentions	pending	2026-05-25

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "pack_id": "codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "ESCAPADE Blue + Gold launched on Blue Origin New Glenn rocket",
      "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ESCAPADE — Launched on New Glenn 13 Nov 2025",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "expected_date": "2025-11-13",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Blue Origin New Glenn launches ESCAPADE Blue + Gold to L2 staging orbit on Nov 13 2025"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "ESCAPADE captures first 'selfies' from L2 staging orbit",
      "source": "https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/escapade/2025/11/24/nasas-mars-bound-escapade-mission-captures-first-selfies/",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "expected_date": "2025-11-24",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA Science blog publishes first imagery from ESCAPADE Blue/Gold confirming spacecraft health"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.7,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "S_MARS_2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Earth gravity assist: ESCAPADE flies ≤600 km of Earth and executes Mars escape burns",
      "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ESCAPADE — Earth gravity assist Nov 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "expected_date": "2026-11-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "ESCAPADE Blue + Gold complete Earth flyby ≤600km altitude with Mars trans-injection burns confirmed"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Mars trans-injection cruise telemetry confirms nominal trajectory toward Sep 2027 arrival",
      "source": "https://science.nasa.gov/mission/escapade/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "expected_date": "2027-04-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-08-31",
        "from": "2026-12-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NASA confirms ESCAPADE on nominal trans-Mars trajectory with all subsystems healthy"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-09-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-10-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-10-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Mars Orbit Insertion: 11-minute burns place Blue + Gold in highly elliptical orbits",
      "source": "https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/03/260314030452.htm — twin probes, 11-min capture burns, fall 2027",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_
... (truncated)