Predictions
10 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 235_009 | Defense | AI-scaling | Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-09-30 |
| AUT_005 | Defense | Silicon-Valley-defense-convergence | Fundamental convergence between autonomous AI, enterprise software, and globa… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| AUT_015 | Defense | cheap-satellites-loitering-munitions | Complete obsolescence of traditional military procurement — national security… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | A | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| CYB_024 | Defense | ChatGPT-moment-genetic-engineering | The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively c… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| ROB_022 | Defense | physical-AI-national-security | Maintaining technological competitiveness in Physical AI is an acute, existen… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | A | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2032-09-30 |
| ROB_026 | Defense | machine-speed-cyberattacks | Autonomous AI agents will execute multi-stage cyberattacks at machine speeds … | Alex Finn | 5/5 | C | 82.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| 234_009 | Defense | AI-timing | Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31 |
| 234_011 | Defense | AI-timing | Pentagon pressure on frontier labs to shape cultural values will increase | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-12-31 |
| 234_010 | Defense | AI-scaling | Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 235_043 | Defense | AI-timing | Anthropic may win legal challenge against Dept of War classification. | Salim Ismail | 2/5 | D | 45.0% | pending | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |