Predictions
389 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 8. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FUT_024 | AI | IMO-gold-2025-underestimate-calibration | XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal… | Superforecaster Community | 5/5 | C | 100.0% | hit | 2022-01-01 – 2025-09-30 |
| AUT_017 | AI | agentic-RL-sequential-policy | Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of… | Jimmy Ba | 4/5 | C | 90.0% | hit | 2023-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| ROB_006 | AI | English-new-programming-language | 'English is the hottest new programming language' — natural language becomes … | Andrej Karpathy | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2023-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 240_014 | AI | AI-timing | Cost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 months | Sam Altman | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2024-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| AI_009 | AI | trillion-dollar-cluster-ladder | Silicon Valley boardroom compute-cluster conversations have escalated rapidly… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | in_progress | 2024-01-01 – 2029-08-31 |
| CMQ_013 | AI | OOM-scaling | A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — brid… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2024-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| CMQ_015 | AI | algorithmic-efficiency | Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effect… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2024-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| IND_013 | AI | DreamerV3-latent-imagination | General intelligence requires systems capable of solving tasks across multidi… | Jimmy Ba | 4/5 | C | 88.0% | hit | 2024-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| INF_008 | AI | IQ-growth-rate | Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | partial | 2024-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| SPC_025 | AI | 300-to-1-safety-ratio | Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities r… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 80.0% | hit | 2024-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 240_056 | AI | AI-timing | Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% i… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| AUT_003 | AI | vibe-coding-delegation | 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomou… | Andrej Karpathy | 5/5 | B | 94.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| AUT_025 | AI | Deep-Utopia-crisis-of-meaning | Per Deep Utopia (2024): successful deployment of highly capable autonomous sy… | Nick Bostrom | 4/5 | C | 42.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2040-10-31 |
| AUT_028 | AI | trillion-dollar-cluster-progression | Corporate boardroom plans will rapidly shift from $10 billion to $100 billion… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 72.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_073 | AI | AI-smarter-than-humanity-2030 | AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smar… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2031-08-31 |
| SEM_002 | AI | AI-scaling | By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of col… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 4/5 | A | 75.0% | partial | 2025-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| SEM_008 | AI | AI-scaling | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime i… | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-08-31 |
| 238_009 | AI | AI-timing | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2025-12-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| 229_013 | AI | AI-timing | The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 229_032 | AI | AI-timing | Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that re… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 229_047 | AI | AI-timing | Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with … | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 230_001 | AI | AI-timing | A billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with huma… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 230_004 | AI | AI-scaling | We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rew… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 230_025 | AI | AI-timing | The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| 230_027 | AI | AI-timing | We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weap… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| 230_028 | AI | AI-timing | Artisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from s… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| 230_029 | AI | AI-timing | Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| 230_031 | AI | AI-timing | We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across ma… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 230_033 | AI | orbital-AI | Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → p… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2033-10-31 |
| 230_040 | AI | AI-scaling | AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will … | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 230_041 | AI | AI-scaling | Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 230_046 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dr… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 231_012 | AI | AI-timing | Within 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 231_014 | AI | AI-scaling | Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 231_046 | AI | AI-timing | Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plot… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| 231_047 | AI | AI-timing | Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 232_013 | AI | AI-timing | Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 202… | Jimmy Ba | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 232_014 | AI | AI-timing | Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 232_015 | AI | AI-scaling | AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 232_060 | AI | AI-scaling | We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicat… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 233_005 | AI | AI-scaling | Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 62.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 234_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everything | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 234_005 | AI | AGI | Demis Hassabis predicts AGI will have 10x industrial revolution impact at 10x… | Demis Hassabis | 3/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| 234_006 | AI | AI-timing | Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering p… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-09-30 |
| 234_017 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks | OpenAI Codex Lead | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 234_018 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 234_019 | AI | AI-scaling | Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over nex… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 234_026 | AI | AI-timing | AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 235_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 235_005 | AI | AI-scaling | AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |