Predictions
106 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 3. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI_003 | Macro/Economy | ARR-compression | AI-native companies are currently compressing what traditionally took a decad… | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | B | 88.0% | in_progress | 2024-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| IND_011 | Macro/Economy | iPhone-moment-outcome-based-pricing | 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapid… | Jason Calacanis | 5/5 | C | 72.0% | in_progress | 2024-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| INF_032 | Macro/Economy | residential-electricity-cost | Residential electricity costs are a structural byproduct of DC buildout: Wash… | Seattle Met / Washington State regulators | 4/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2024-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| INF_011 | Macro/Economy | hyperscaler-capex | Mega-cap hyperscalers will commit over $1 trillion of capital expenditures in… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 88.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 230_009 | Macro/Economy | economy | US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| 230_034 | Macro/Economy | abundance | Abundance will be achieved by 2035. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 231_044 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Universal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 232_022 | Macro/Economy | economy | Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI. | Ben Horowitz | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| 236_017 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 237_013 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Over 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweig… | Alex Finn | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 238_061 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 238_068 | Macro/Economy | economy | Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-… | Mark Pack Donovan | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 240_042 | Macro/Economy | economy | Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number) | Elon Musk | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 241_022 | Macro/Economy | economy | Data center buildout is ~1% of US GDP growth | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 242_049 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| AUT_007 | Macro/Economy | US-GDP-5-to-6-2-percent-2026 | 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing mas… | Chamath Palihapitiya | 5/5 | B | 18.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_020 | Macro/Economy | AI-capex | Nearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow throug… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 72.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_021 | Macro/Economy | AI-as-macro-variable | AI has transitioned from a thematic technology disruption to a primary macroe… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | A | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_032 | Macro/Economy | cost-of-intelligence | Exponential collapse in cost of intelligence shifts the primary economic bott… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| CMQ_054 | Macro/Economy | abundance-thesis | Humanoid physical automation (Optimus + Figure + competitors) will usher in a… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 20.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-12-31 |
| CYB_002 | Macro/Economy | integration-schlep | Despite raw agentic tool-use benchmarks tracking ahead of schedule, the enter… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 4/5 | B | 85.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| CYB_014 | Macro/Economy | ExO-demonetization | The Exponential Organization (ExO) framework becomes mandatory corporate stru… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 58.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2032-12-31 |
| FUT_006 | Macro/Economy | strategic-creative-destruction | Organizations must practice 'creative destruction on purpose' 2026-2031: deli… | Amy Webb | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| FUT_007 | Macro/Economy | structural-demographic-depression-2026-2031 | Global economy accelerates into structural demographic depression 2026-2031 —… | Peter Zeihan | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| FUT_022 | Macro/Economy | North-American-industrial-resurgence | Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by ge… | Peter Zeihan | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| IND_015 | Macro/Economy | economic-inversion-AI-CEO-billionaire | Integration of open agentic systems drives near-term 'economic inversion' — a… | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 25.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| IND_017 | Macro/Economy | AI-CEO-billionaire-Agentic-Era-50T | Arrival of the 'AI CEO Billionaire' in 2026 — AI will automate knowledge work… | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 22.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| IND_025 | Macro/Economy | Ismail-Agentic-Era-2027-ExO | Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates kn… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 38.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| INF_003 | Macro/Economy | AI-infrastructure-buildout | The global AI infrastructure buildout is in its earliest phase — only a few h… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 72.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| INF_029 | Macro/Economy | outcome-economics | Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-base… | Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| INF_047 | Macro/Economy | US-GDP-forecast-2026 | 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily b… | Chamath Palihapitiya | 4/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| ROB_018 | Macro/Economy | Enterprise-Singularity-Amazon | The 'Enterprise Singularity' — Amazon will soon become the first major corpor… | Jason Calacanis | 5/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| ROB_019 | Macro/Economy | Electro-Industrial-Stack | The rise of the 'Electro-Industrial Stack' — AI moving out of the browser and… | Marc Andreessen | 5/5 | B | 70.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| ROB_020 | Macro/Economy | Factory-is-the-Product | The 'Factory-is-the-Product' model will dominate venture-backed manufacturing… | Marc Andreessen | 4/5 | B | 62.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| SEM_010 | Macro/Economy | $100T | AI will quintuple the world's gross domestic product, expanding it from $100 … | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 8.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 229_038 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Robotics/humanoid GDP contribution could 100x a jurisdiction's GDP where robo… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 234_042 | Macro/Economy | jobs | AI displacement will collapse the payroll tax base funding Medicare/Social Se… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 236_001 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Universal High Income and social unrest will both happen simultaneously | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31 |
| 236_002 | Macro/Economy | economy | UBI must come before UHI as an intermediate step | Andrew Yang | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2034-06-30 |
| 236_006 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | AI entrepreneurs will get phenomenally wealthy and give most away | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 236_009 | Macro/Economy | economy | Human billionaires will be first movers funding UBI-like regional transfers | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-12-31 |
| 236_032 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | AI has chance of fixing poverty globally | Andrew Yang | 2/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 236_036 | Macro/Economy | economy | Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 238_053 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Innovation is no longer capital constrained — permissionless disruptive innov… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31 |
| 238_054 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Post-capitalist society: compute, energy, raw materials will be the scarce re… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-12-31 |
| 238_055 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Marginal cost of production will approach zero for most goods (molecular manu… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31 |
| 238_056 | Macro/Economy | jobs | Capital itself might become mortal (capitalism may lose fights with labor for… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31 |
| 238_060 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Universal basic AI (UBI for AI/compute) will be required — money must come fr… | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-12-31 |
| 239_018 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Universal High Income will be implemented | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2040-12-31 |
| 239_019 | Macro/Economy | AGI | Deflation will occur as goods/services output exceeds money supply growth | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31 |