Predictions
94 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 2. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMQ_053 | Robotics | Figure-funding | Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW … | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | A | 99.0% | hit | 2024-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| CMQ_050 | Robotics | fourth-wave-AI | Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — project… | Industry analysts (synthesis) | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| SEM_041 | Robotics | humanoids | At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by spe… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | B | 45.0% | partial | 2025-01-01 – 2025-11-30 |
| 229_001 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to bui… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 229_002 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via i… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 229_003 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two … | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 229_007 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from log… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 229_020 | Robotics | humanoids | By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and d… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 229_022 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing e… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 229_026 | Robotics | AI-scaling | By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability i… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 229_043 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad di… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 239_013 | Robotics | Optimus | Tesla will release an improved Optimus design every year | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 239_033 | Robotics | Optimus | Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 241_061 | Robotics | humanoids | China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (no… | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 247_045 | Robotics | humanoids | 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 248_043 | Robotics | AI-scaling | Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| CMQ_052 | Robotics | humanoid-economics | Humanoid robot price will drop to ~$20K-$30K per unit — leased cost ~$500/mon… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | A | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| CMQ_055 | Robotics | humanoid-UI | Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the defau… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | A | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| COD_ROB_003 | Robotics | humanoid-deployment | At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end … | Codex Research Pack | 3/5 | — | 58.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| CYB_018 | Robotics | Figure-39B-valuation | Figure AI valuation has eclipsed $39 billion by early 2026 — surpassing Space… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | B | 95.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| CYB_019 | Robotics | world-model-training-grounds | Deployment of 'world model systems' — AI that accurately simulates and antici… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| IND_023 | Robotics | bipedal-robotics-municipal-utility | 'Cambrian explosion of bipedal labor' driven by hundreds of robotics companie… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | C | 48.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| INF_023 | Robotics | automated-construction | Data-center physical shells will be increasingly erected by 3D-printing and r… | Ben Lamm | 3/5 | C | 40.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| ROB_007 | Robotics | Physical-AI-50T-opportunity | The technology sector is crossing a $1 trillion computing inflection point tr… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 48.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-09-30 |
| ROB_009 | Robotics | Optimus-30K-retail-2026 | External sales of Tesla Optimus will commence in 2026 at approximately $30,00… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 25.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| ROB_013 | Robotics | language-to-actuation-generalization | Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D … | Jimmy Ba | 4/5 | C | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_033 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting t… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-02-01 – 2026-02-28 |
| 247_042 | Robotics | humanoids | Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-04-01 – 2026-04-30 |
| COD_ROB_001 | Robotics | humanoid-production | Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at lea… | Codex Research Pack | 3/5 | — | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-29 – 2026-12-31 |
| 229_005 | Robotics | humanoids | The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 p… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | B | 62.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_012 | Robotics | humanoids | Every major tech company in the world will enter the humanoid robotics space. | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_014 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will be able to make millions of robots via BotQ and future BotQ expan… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_016 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will scale manufacturing from thousands to tens of thousands to hundre… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_017 | Robotics | humanoids | Long term, robot cost will fall to $10,000-$20,000 per unit. | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_018 | Robotics | humanoids | In the future, everything that moves (besides humans) will be a robot. | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_019 | Robotics | humanoids | Humanoids will dominate the plurality of all robots; other form factors will … | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_024 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure's scale-up path: working in 1 home, then 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000, 100,0… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_028 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_029 | Robotics | humanoids | Humanoid robots could become safer than humans by a large margin, similar to … | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_031 | Robotics | humanoids | At some point, you'll walk out in a city (likely San Francisco first) and see… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_039 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will integrate additional sensors (infrared, ultraviolet, etc.) into f… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 229_040 | Robotics | AI-scaling | When Figure robots work on unloading the dishwasher, they're within a 'millim… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_045 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will not differentiate by vertical form factor—general-purpose humanoi… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_046 | Robotics | humanoids | Current Figure robots have 3-5x headroom in speed via existing actuators once… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-09-30 |
| 234_032 | Robotics | humanoids | Market for humanoids and general purpose automation will be $50 trillion | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 236_020 | Robotics | humanoids | No robot plumbers or HVAC repair people anytime soon | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 236_022 | Robotics | humanoids | Robots will build data centers in foreseeable time frame | Andrew Yang | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 239_014 | Robotics | Optimus | Tesla will build out 10M sq ft Optimus factory | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 240_047 | Robotics | AI-timing | Physical AI will be at least double the market opportunity of digital AI | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 241_002 | Robotics | humanoids | Robots will take longer than digital/software systems to have impact | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |