Predictions
23 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 231_019 | Other | AI-timing | Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in n… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 234_041 | Other | AI-timing | 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 248_026 | Other | AI-timing | Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| CYB_025 | Other | prompter-to-partner-liability | The legal profession must transition from viewing AI as a 'prompter' to an ac… | Ralph Losey | 4/5 | C | 82.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 229_041 | Other | humanoids | Robots will bring abundance and a 'sci-fi future' where it will 'feel like 20… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 245_020 | Other | AI-timing | Screworm will decimate US cattle and bison industry | Ben Lamm | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31 |
| 244_035 | Other | AI-timing | Uber will only enter adjacencies that 'rhyme' with core capabilities | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_024 | Other | AI-timing | AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_025 | Other | AI-timing | Religion will consolidate globally around fewer major religions while prolife… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_027 | Other | AI-scaling | Religion economy (~$5 trillion) will grow tremendously due to AI chaos. | Dave Blundin | 1/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| CYB_016 | Other | agentic-rural-agriculture | Rural landscapes in the Global South move beyond conventional food production… | Peter Dannenberg | 3/5 | C | 42.0% | pending | 2027-01-01 – 2032-12-31 |
| 231_027 | Other | crypto | Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programma… | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 231_029 | Other | AI-scaling | Millisecond real-time dispute resolution will replace current court systems. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| AI_035 | Other | meaning-of-life-post-ASI | In a world where superintelligent AI can perform all economically valuable, s… | Nick Bostrom | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2030-01-01 – 2045-12-31 |
| 238_031 | Other | AI-timing | Future is unpredictable beyond three weeks in the AI era | Salim Ismail | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | — – — |
| 238_050 | Other | AI-timing | Sci-fi tropes (warp drive, teleportation, time travel) are not yet achieved; … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | — – — |
| 239_017 | Other | AGI | Future is 80%+ likely to be great | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | — – — |
| 239_026 | Other | AGI | Future will be very entertaining | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | — – — |
| 244_008 | Other | AI-timing | If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | — – — |
| 244_030 | Other | AI-timing | Physical world tech adoption always takes longer than digital world | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | — – — |
| 244_034 | Other | AI-timing | Companies get more conservative as they grow, but should do opposite | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | — – — |
| 245_032 | Other | AI-timing | Anti-GMO perception of reintroduced Tasmanian tiger requires government educa… | Ben Lamm | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | — – — |
| 245_034 | Other | AI-timing | Wolves will not attack modern cattle due to current cattle-raising methods | Ben Lamm | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | — – — |