Predictions
14 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMQ_014 | AI/Compute | physical-compute | Physical compute scaling will proceed at ~0.5 OOMs per year through 2027, dri… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | in_progress | 2024-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| CMQ_031 | AI/Compute | post-Moore | AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 70.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| CMQ_023 | AI/Compute | tokens-economy | Tokens are the new raw material — data centers are no longer cost centers but… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 85.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_024 | AI/Compute | tokens-per-watt | 'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the mod… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_025 | AI/Compute | DC-replacement | The entire global installed base of data centers must be ripped out and repla… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2032-12-31 |
| CMQ_027 | AI/Compute | inference-shift | The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-d… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_030 | AI/Compute | CPU-resurgence | In the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it d… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_042 | AI/Compute | CPU-bottleneck-shift | As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks sh… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_043 | AI/Compute | CPU-latency | In complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of e… | Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel | 5/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_044 | AI/Compute | CPU-GPU-ratio | Future data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require … | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| CMQ_056 | AI/Compute | edge-SLM | Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques wi… | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | A | 82.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CMQ_058 | AI/Compute | local-compute | Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300'… | Alex Finn | 4/5 | B | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| SEM_001 | AI/Compute | AI-scaling | Compute clusters will scale from $10B → $100B → $1T by end of decade; 'anothe… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| COD_AI_002 | AI/Compute | gigawatt-cluster | At least one 1 GW Vera Rubin frontier-training cluster reaches deployment by … | Codex Research Pack | 3/5 | — | 52.0% | pending | 2026-10-01 – 2027-03-31 |