Predictions
90 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 2. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPC_008 | Space | SpaceX-milestone-2.5x-rule | SpaceX milestone-delivery statistics: 16% on-time, 31% late, 53% undelivered … | New Market Pitch | 5/5 | B | 95.0% | hit | 2005-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| SPC_031 | Space | launch-cost-reusability-kg | SpaceX's reusability program has driven the cost per kilogram to Low Earth Or… | SpaceX | 5/5 | B | 95.0% | hit | 2008-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 231_037 | Space | SpaceX | Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch t… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 62.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 240_028 | Space | AI-scaling | Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 years | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| 246_015 | Space | SpaceX | Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 248_001 | Space | SpaceX | Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual sate… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 248_004 | Space | SpaceX | Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 248_041 | Space | orbital-AI | Maine data center moratorium gives other states / Elon time to move compute t… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| COD_SPC_003 | Space | Starship-orbital-refueling | SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant… | Codex Research Pack | 4/5 | — | 35.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CYB_020 | Space | Starlink-AI-data-canopy | Starlink expansion — navigating regulatory regimes like India's IN-SPACe appr… | Gwynne Shotwell | 4/5 | C | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| CYB_021 | Space | orbital-AI-life-support | Commercial orbital missions will increasingly depend on AI for advanced simul… | Jared Isaacman | 4/5 | C | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2032-11-30 |
| IND_016 | Space | five-uncrewed-Starships-Mars-2026 | By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Stars… | Gwynne Shotwell | 5/5 | A | 12.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| ROB_011 | Space | Optimus-Mars-2026 | An Optimus unit will be sent to Mars by 2026 — signaling the role of autonomo… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 8.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| ROB_023 | Space | Falcon-9-140-launches-2026 | SpaceX expects approximately 140-145 Falcon 9 launches in 2026 — maintaining … | Gwynne Shotwell | 5/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| SEM_044 | Space | SpaceX | Blue Origin will land cargo at Shackleton Crater before SpaceX — validating l… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 40.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| SPC_006 | Space | Starlink-10M-subscribers | Starlink exceeded 10 million active global subscribers by February 2026, gene… | SpaceX | 5/5 | B | 98.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| SPC_013 | Space | NASA-cadence-6-to-9-months | As 15th NASA Administrator (confirmed December 2025), Isaacman predicts NASA … | Jared Isaacman | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| SPC_014 | Space | Starlink-65-percent-active-sats | Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making L… | SpaceX | 5/5 | B | 98.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| SPC_015 | Space | AI-collision-avoidance-LEO | AI will continuously analyze orbital trajectories of active satellites and sp… | Andrej Karpathy | 4/5 | B | 82.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| SPC_016 | Space | EO-edge-computing-satellite | AI transforms Earth Observation satellites via on-orbit edge computing — pars… | Ben Lamm | 4/5 | C | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| SPC_021 | Space | Relativity-AI-rocket-manufacturing | Relativity Space will revolutionize manufacturing of atmospheric and orbital … | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 235_016 | Space | SpaceX | SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). | Peter Diamandis | 2/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-01 – 2026-04-30 |
| 242_057 | Space | AI-timing | Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | hit | 2026-04-01 – 2026-04-30 |
| 229_035 | Space | humanoids | Humanoids will eventually be used in space (including zero-G assembly of spac… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 229_036 | Space | AI-scaling | Humanity will eventually disassemble the moon and asteroid belt for materials. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 234_029 | Space | orbital-AI | Humans will not take cows to the moon or Mars as foodstock | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 234_045 | Space | orbital-AI | Moon disassembly for AI data centers may not actually be needed due to physic… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 2/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-10-31 |
| 234_049 | Space | humanoids | First lunar and Mars cities will be built from scratch via humanoid robot con… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 242_002 | Space | autonomous | Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 242_009 | Space | orbital-AI | We will have multiple Dyson swarms | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-10-31 |
| 242_039 | Space | AI-timing | NASA will imminently find >90% probability evidence of microbial life on Mars | Jared Isaacman (NASA administrator) | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 242_040 | Space | economy | Mars/Europa/planets will have ubiquitous microbial life | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 242_041 | Space | AI-timing | United Launch Alliance will get acquired by Jeff Bezos or similar | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| 246_014 | Space | orbital-AI | Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 62.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_019 | Space | AI-timing | Interstellar travel will use solar sail powered by terowatt lasers carrying u… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-10-31 |
| 246_038 | Space | orbital-AI | Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers). | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-04-30 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_054 | Space | SpaceX | Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missi… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2028-11-30 |
| COD_SPC_006 | Space | commercial-space-station | Vast Haven-1 reaches orbit by end 2026 | Codex Research Pack | 3/5 | — | 50.0% | pending | 2026-05-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 241_024 | Space | AI-timing | Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_025 | Space | AGI | Elon Musk predicts launch per hour cadence to populate satellite constellations | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_026 | Space | AI-timing | Space data center technology is understood and largely figured out | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_054 | Space | AI-timing | Space wins by far on energy argument for data centers | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_055 | Space | AI-timing | Next frontier of AI infrastructure is space | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_060 | Space | AI-timing | Data centers will be built in space / rockets will carry data centers | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_003 | Space | SpaceX | SpaceX plans to launch 40,000 V3 Starlink satellites and then 120,000 V4 sate… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_005 | Space | SpaceX | V3 Starlink satellites will deliver over 1 TB/s downlink and 200+ Gbps uplink… | Video Narration (SpaceX) | 5/5 | D | 92.0% | hit | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_019 | Space | orbital-AI | US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_021 | Space | AI-scaling | Satellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dolla… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 248_046 | Space | AI-scaling | Terraforming will be a massive part of humanity's future. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| COD_SPC_004 | Space | Europa-Clipper | Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 | Codex Research Pack | 5/5 | — | 95.0% | pending | 2026-12-01 – 2026-12-31 |