SPC_014predictionSpaceStarlink-65-percent-active-sats

Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational management a fundamentally single-operator problem; requires transition from human-in-the-loop control to fully autonomous algorithmic collision avoidance and f...

Predictor: SpaceX

Prior probability

98.0%

Current probability

88.4%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

5/5

Signal quality

Resolution

hit

Window

2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30

Edges in / out

2 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational management a fundamentally single-operator problem; requires transition from human-in-the-loop control to fully autonomous algorithmic collision avoidance and fleet coordination. | Next major competing constellation reaching 1K active sats

Key catalyst: Next major competing constellation reaching 1K active sats

Watch events: Guowang / Kuiper launches; total LEO satellite counts

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

Jonathan McDowell Space Track 2026 confirms ~8000+ Starlink satellites out of ~12K+ active total (~65%).

Predictor: SpaceX

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.688

Brier

0.0011

excellent

Hits / Misses

3 / 0

of 3 resolved

Hit rate

100.0%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from SpaceX is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 88.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 3 overdue ⏱

2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-04-29hitStarlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational management a fundamentally single-operator probl

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 88%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z88.4%-1.3pp

Network propagation: 89.7% → 88.4%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z89.7%-2.2pp

Network propagation: 91.9% → 89.7%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z91.9%-3.0pp

Network propagation: 94.9% → 91.9%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z94.9%-3.1pp

Network propagation: 98.0% → 94.9%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:18Z100.0%+8.1pp

resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.919

Raw metadata

{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.08125000000000004,
  "inside_posterior": 0.91875,
  "validation_notes": "Jonathan McDowell Space Track 2026 confirms ~8000+ Starlink satellites out of ~12K+ active total (~65%).",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.91875,
  "resolution_evidence": "Jonathan McDowell Space Track 2026 confirms ~8000+ Starlink satellites out of ~12K+ active total (~65%).",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	10.0%	0.050	0.950	-0.024
killer	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	8.0%	0.050	0.950	-0.006

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

24 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (15)

MNTS FLY GSAT RKLB IRDM KRMN PL ASTS BKSY AMZN LMT BA NOC LHX RTX

Adverse (4)

ALL PGR TRV UBER

Prerequisites (2)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
killer	TK11	Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	—
killer	TK06	China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Validations (1)

Resolution events

Observed at	Status	By	Notes
2026-04-29	hit	thesis_timeline_v1.0_import	Jonathan McDowell Space Track 2026 confirms ~8000+ Starlink satellites out of ~12K+ active total (~65%).

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "65% active sats",
  "mode": "OBSERVATION",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "Anchors the AI-in-satellite-operations thesis (SPC_015, SPC_016). Couples with 232_011 (Musk orbital DC), CYB_020 (Starlink AI canopy).",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "conv_cues": "specific % share; LEO-concentration fact",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026 current",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-01-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-01",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-30",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Starlink constitutes 65% of all active satellites globally by 2026 — making LEO operational management a fundamentally single-operator probl",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "SPC_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "affiliation": "SpaceX / Starlink",
  "attribution": "CITED",
  "granularity": "YEAR",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:18.260860+00:00",
  "source_refs": "6",
  "target_date": "2026-04-15T00:00:00",
  "display_date": "2026-04-29",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-21T00:00:00",
  "key_catalyst": "Next major competing constellation reaching 1K active sats",
  "parse_method": "Current-state observation",
  "domain_bucket": "Space",
  "episode_title": "Strategic Forecasts in Space, Satellites, and Propulsion: 2023-2026 Retrospective and Future Outlook",
  "fault_line_id": "F006",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "source_report": "Space Prediction Research Plan.md (2026-04-21)",
  "appears_in_eps": "SPC-RPT",
  "futurist_phase": "Phase 1 (2026)",
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 3,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C7"
  ],
  "report_evidence": "Anchor section: Autonomous Orbits / AI Satellite Operations.",
  "active_end_month": "2026-12",
  "recent_statement": "Starlink 2026 / McDowell Space Track.",
  "watch_events_raw": "Guowang / Kuiper launches; total LEO satellite counts",
  "months_from_today": 0,
  "probability_layer": "Higher (in-flight)",
  "active_start_month": "2026-01",
  "december_dispersal": {
    "reason": "december_dispersal: domain=Space → 11/2026",
    "new_date": "2026-11-30",
    "old_date": "2026-12-31",
    "applied_at": "2026-04-30T16:28:34.304992+00:00"
  },
  "flag_nia_bracketed": false,
  "resolved_at_source": "validations_observed_at",
  "track_record_grade": "A",
  "track_record_notes": "Official satellite-catalog data highly reliable.",
  "contradicting_notes": "China Guowang, Amazon Kuiper, Eutelsat-OneWeb constellations may reduce % share over 2027-2030.",
  "flag_near_term_2027": false,
  "flag_high_conviction": false,
  "milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:51.296489+00:00",
  "reference_class_match": {
    "decision": "keyword_filtered",
    "computed_at": "2026-04-30T01:49:13.796883+00:00",
    "best_id_unfiltered": "agi_breakthrough_5y",
    "best_si