COD_SPC_006predictionSpacecommercial-space-station

Vast Haven-1 reaches orbit by end 2026

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

Prior probability

50.0%

Current probability

51.5%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

3/5

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-05-01 – 2026-12-31

Edges in / out

1 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Vast Haven-1 reaches orbit by end 2026

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.850

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from Codex Research Pack is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 51.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 3 overdue ⏱ · 5 pending

2025-07-31overdueHaven-1 primary structure complete (achieved July 2025)
How: Vast Space press release confirms completion of Haven-1 primary structure; SpaceflightNow or NSF coverage documents milestone
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
2025-11-30overdueStructural and pathfinder testing completed
How: Vast announces completion of qualification testing and launches Haven-1 pathfinder mission per NASASpaceflight coverage
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 90%
2026-03-31overdueFalcon 9 launch services contract finalization for Haven-1
How: SpaceX confirms Haven-1 manifest assignment and target launch month; Vast publishes static-fire / encapsulation-readiness imagery
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 80%
2026-06-12pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-05-01 → 2026-09-30pendingHaven-1 launches on Falcon 9 (current targeted window May 2026)
How: Falcon 9 launches Haven-1 to LEO at ~14,000 kg mass; SpaceX webcast and Vast confirm orbit insertion as commercial space station
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 65%
2026-07-25pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-09-05pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingVast-1 first crewed mission to Haven-1
How: First Crew Dragon mission docks four astronauts to Haven-1 for 10-day stay; mission accomplishes commercial-station-occupancy first
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
2026-10-18pendingVast Haven-1 reaches orbit by end 2026

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 52%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z51.5%+1.3pp

Network propagation: 50.2% → 51.5%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z50.2%+3.1pp

Network propagation: 47.2% → 50.2%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z47.2%+6.9pp

Network propagation: 40.3% → 47.2%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z40.3%+13.8pp

Network propagation: 26.5% → 40.3%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z26.5%-23.5pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=3 inside=0.265 blend=0.265 LLR=-1.021 κ=0.95 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.9921238718015711,
  "kappa": 0.95,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Codex Research Pack",
  "total_llr": -1.2163953243244932,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0,
  "bayes_factor": "2.8:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.5,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 3,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.9025,
      "label": "Haven-1 primary structure complete (achieved July 2025)",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://spaceflightnow.com/2025/05/07/vast-to-complete-haven-1-primary-structure-in-july-2025-ahead-of-target-may-2026-launch-date/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.36593226006761836,
      "expected_date": "2025-07-31",
      "measurement_criterion": "Vast Space press release confirms completion of Haven-1 primary structure; SpaceflightNow or NSF coverage documents milestone"
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.855,
      "label": "Structural and pathfinder testing completed",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/11/vast-haven-1-update/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.34667266743248054,
      "expected_date": "2025-11-30",
      "measurement_criterion": "Vast announces completion of qualification testing and launches Haven-1 pathfinder mission per NASASpaceflight coverage"
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.76,
      "label": "Falcon 9 launch services contract finalization for Haven-1",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "source_url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/human-spaceflight/vast-gearing-up-to-launch-its-haven-1-private-space-station-in-2026",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.30815348216220495,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX confirms Haven-1 manifest assignment and target launch month; Vast publishes static-fire / encapsulation-readiness imagery"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "prior_prob",
  "inside_weight": 0.3055132897389002,
  "outside_weight": 0.6944867102610999,
  "posterior_prob": 0.26487969785359367,
  "posterior_logit": -1.020758409662304,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "inside_posterior": 0.26487969785359367,
  "blended_posterior": 0.26487969785359367,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -1.020758409662304,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

Ticker exposure

2 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (2)

LMT RKLB

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
correlate	246_038	Data centers are driving frontier labs into space (orbital data centers).	Space	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers

Expected by	Description	Status
2026-05-31	Vast Haven-1 targeted launch window	overdue

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.700	codex_research_pack	Vast - Haven-1 targeted to launch May 2026	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "pack_id": "codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Haven-1 primary structure complete (achieved July 2025)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://spaceflightnow.com/2025/05/07/vast-to-complete-haven-1-primary-structure-in-july-2025-ahead-of-target-may-2026-launch-date/",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-31",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Vast Space press release confirms completion of Haven-1 primary structure; SpaceflightNow or NSF coverage documents milestone"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Structural and pathfinder testing completed",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/11/vast-haven-1-update/",
      "expected_date": "2025-11-30",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Vast announces completion of qualification testing and launches Haven-1 pathfinder mission per NASASpaceflight coverage"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Falcon 9 launch services contract finalization for Haven-1",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "source_url": "https://www.space.com/space-exploration/human-spaceflight/vast-gearing-up-to-launch-its-haven-1-private-space-station-in-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX confirms Haven-1 manifest assignment and target launch month; Vast publishes static-fire / encapsulation-readiness imagery"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-12",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Haven-1 launches on Falcon 9 (current targeted window May 2026)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haven-1",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Falcon 9 launches Haven-1 to LEO at ~14,000 kg mass; SpaceX webcast and Vast confirm orbit insertion as commercial space station"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-05",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Vast-1 first crewed mission to Haven-1",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
    
... (truncated)