Predictions
68 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 2. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INF_016 | Energy | power-as-binding-constraint | Power generation is the 'innermost loop' and absolute limiting factor on AI e… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 85.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 229_037 | Energy | humanoids | With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europ… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2032-11-30 |
| 235_022 | Energy | AI-timing | US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_047 | Energy | AI-timing | US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 240_034 | Energy | AI-timing | Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 241_016 | Energy | AI-timing | 92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030 | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 241_017 | Energy | AI-timing | Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 241_052 | Energy | AI-timing | Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 247_048 | Energy | AI-timing | Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollar | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| CMQ_017 | Energy | power-grid | US electricity production must grow by 'tens of percent' by end of decade to … | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| FUT_010 | Energy | solar-4x-cost-reduction-33-percent-global | Fundamental cost of clean electricity drops by another multiple of 4 over 202… | Ramez Naam | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-10-31 |
| FUT_012 | Energy | grid-parity-subsidy-independent-fossil-stranding | Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building… | Ramez Naam | 5/5 | A | 68.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| FUT_018 | Energy | Energy-Islanding-sovereign-autonomy | Rise of 'Energy Islanding' 2026-2031 — sovereign nations possessing BOTH geog… | Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| FUT_025 | Energy | renewable-runaway-feedback-loop | Runaway economic feedback loop 2026-2031: cheaper renewable energy incentiviz… | Ramez Naam | 4/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| INF_012 | Energy | AI-power-additions | AI data-center power consumption will grow by approximately 126 GW annually t… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| INF_013 | Energy | BYOP-gas | Natural gas will meet approximately 20% of the world's new power needs outsid… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | A | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| INF_014 | Energy | DC-carbon-emissions | Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively th… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| INF_015 | Energy | cooling-KPIs | Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) and Water Usage Effectiveness (WUE) will tran… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 90.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| INF_017 | Energy | Colossus-Phase-2 | xAI Colossus Phase 2 will consume approximately 1.5 gigawatts of power — city… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 82.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| INF_019 | Energy | DC-water-consumption | A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of fre… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 90.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| INF_021 | Energy | steel-mills-climate-deferral | AI data centers are the 'steel mills of the 21st century' — humanity will mis… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_044 | Energy | US-energy-demand-growth | US total energy consumption will rise by approximately 10% over the next deca… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| INF_045 | Energy | nuclear-renaissance-capex | Nuclear sector will draw approximately $1.5 trillion in cumulative capital in… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2050-11-30 |
| INF_049 | Energy | gigawatt-factory-bottleneck | Modern AI data centers are no longer server farms but "gigawatt factories"; e… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| INF_059 | Energy | Global-South-energy-stacking | Global South energy transitions will follow "energy stacking" rather than sub… | Peter Dannenberg | 3/5 | C | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| INF_060 | Energy | post-lithium-batteries | Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 —… | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| INF_063 | Energy | grid-scale-battery-necessity | Advancing sustainable, high-capacity battery storage is the only mechanism to… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| INF_070 | Energy | bitcoin-mining-load-balancer | Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energ… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 238_046 | Energy | AI-timing | xAI will build every new data center at 1.2 gigawatts scale | Gwynne Shotwell / xAI | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-10-31 |
| 238_066 | Energy | AI-timing | Pete Donovan aspires to build 20,000 distributed 10MW data centers across US … | Pete (audience, data center builder) | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-10-31 |
| 238_067 | Energy | AI-scaling | US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed region… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-10-31 |
| 239_028 | Energy | AGI | Intelligence harnessing up to 1 millionth of sun's energy possible | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30 |
| 240_017 | Energy | AI-timing | Optimization may eliminate need to tile the world with data centers or massiv… | Salim Ismail | 2/5 | D | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2027-11-30 |
| 242_008 | Energy | AI-scaling | Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-11-30 |
| 246_018 | Energy | AI-timing | Killer app of compact fusion reactors will be interplanetary/interstellar pro… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-11-30 |
| 247_049 | Energy | AI-timing | Solar PV capped materially less than 100% efficiency by physics | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2029-11-30 |
| 241_018 | Energy | AI-timing | Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will inc… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_020 | Energy | AI-timing | 1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_044 | Energy | AI-timing | Rate of data center construction will continue accelerating with government s… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_059 | Energy | AI-timing | Government will continue unleashing capital to solve AI power problems | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 244_031 | Energy | autonomous | Uber's network will move to EVs as autonomous becomes bigger reality | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| INF_062 | Energy | 3D-graphene-batteries | Lyten will commercialize 3D-Graphene-based next-generation batteries (lithium… | Lyten | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | in_progress | 2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 235_024 | Energy | abundance | In 2-3 years, AI will drive energy overabundance enabling free electricity to… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 45.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| AI_018 | Energy | global-DC-construction | Global data center construction spend will reach approximately $2.9 trillion … | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| INF_010 | Energy | US-power-shortfall | US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW pow… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| INF_053 | Energy | nuclear-gigasite-architecture | Valar Atomics "Nuclear Gigasite" model — clustering hundreds of identical Hig… | Isaiah Taylor | 4/5 | C | 30.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| INF_055 | Energy | fusion-commercial-debut | Helion Energy will deliver the world's first commercial fusion electricity — … | Sam Altman | 4/5 | A | 28.0% | pending | 2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| INF_058 | Energy | decentralized-microgrids | The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decen… | Andrew Yang | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | partial | 2028-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |
| 231_034 | Energy | AI-scaling | Power constraint won't be a big problem until chip fabs come online and it su… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |
| 236_039 | Energy | AI-timing | Data centers/hyperscalers will subsidize electricity/services for consumers | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30 |