Predictions
1,607 of 1,607 predictions match — page 2 of 33. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEM_012 | AI/Manufacturing | AI-scaling | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount … | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 90.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| SEM_013 | Policy/Semis | hardware | Every nation needs to build advanced chip manufacturing capability — sovereig… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 85.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| SEM_015 | Policy/Semis | NVIDIA | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US governme… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 75.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| SEM_027 | Capital Markets | NVIDIA | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 reve… | Joseph Moore | 5/5 | A | 99.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| SEM_038 | AI/AGI | superintelligence | Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | A | 12.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| SEM_039 | Semis/ASICs | crypto | Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s… | Jack Dorsey | 5/5 | B | 95.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| SEM_040 | Finance/Crypto | crypto | Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterpri… | Michael Saylor | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | partial | 2025-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| SEM_041 | Robotics | humanoids | At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by spe… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | B | 45.0% | partial | 2025-01-01 – 2025-11-30 |
| SEM_042 | AI/Agents | AI-scaling | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstr… | Kevin Weil | 4/5 | A | 90.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| SEM_046 | AI/Startups | economy | AI startups are scaling incredibly fast with significantly less capital — bar… | Joe Liemandt | 3/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| SEM_047 | AI/Hardware | AI-scaling | At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy… | Jimmy Ba | 5/5 | B | 90.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| SEM_048 | AI/Corporate | economy | OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for … | OpenAI (Sam Altman-led) | 5/5 | A | 95.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| SPC_004 | Markets/Stocks | Rocket-Lab-small-launch-dominance | Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) will leverage its dominance in the small-to-medium laun… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 90.0% | hit | 2025-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| SPC_005 | Markets/Stocks | AST-SpaceMobile-direct-to-cell | AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) will scale from $70.9M full-year 2025 revenue (guided … | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2025-01-01 – 2025-11-30 |
| SPC_028 | Labor/Jobs | corporate-collapse-1.1M-jobs | Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for t… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| COD_BIO_001 | Biotech/Longevity | FDA-AI-drug-guidance | FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 | Codex Research Pack | 4/5 | — | 70.0% | pending | 2025-01-06 – 2026-12-31 |
| COD_BIO_002 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-drug-clinical | An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 | Codex Research Pack | 3/5 | — | 50.0% | pending | 2025-03-31 – 2027-12-31 |
| SEM_014 | Manufacturing | NVIDIA | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semi… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 98.0% | hit | 2025-10-01 – 2025-10-31 |
| 238_009 | AI | AI-timing | Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2025-12-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| 229_001 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to bui… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 229_002 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via i… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 229_003 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two … | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 229_007 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from log… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 229_008 | Biotech/Longevity | humanoids | By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what su… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 229_013 | AI | AI-timing | The next 12-18 months will be the largest AI transformation ever seen. | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 229_020 | Robotics | humanoids | By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and d… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 229_022 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing e… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 229_026 | Robotics | AI-scaling | By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability i… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 229_032 | AI | AI-timing | Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that re… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 229_037 | Energy | humanoids | With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europ… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2032-11-30 |
| 229_043 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad di… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 229_047 | AI | AI-timing | Figure's 3,000 B200 GPU cluster is coming online for Helix pre-training with … | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 230_001 | AI | AI-timing | A billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with huma… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 230_004 | AI | AI-scaling | We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rew… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 230_009 | Macro/Economy | economy | US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| 230_015 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 230_025 | AI | AI-timing | The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| 230_027 | AI | AI-timing | We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weap… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| 230_028 | AI | AI-timing | Artisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from s… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| 230_029 | AI | AI-timing | Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| 230_031 | AI | AI-timing | We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across ma… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 230_033 | AI | orbital-AI | Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → p… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2033-10-31 |
| 230_034 | Macro/Economy | abundance | Abundance will be achieved by 2035. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 230_040 | AI | AI-scaling | AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will … | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 230_041 | AI | AI-scaling | Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 230_046 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dr… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 231_009 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | India will be the rising giant for the next 20-30 years, with Africa following. | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2056-10-31 |
| 231_012 | AI | AI-timing | Within 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 231_014 | AI | AI-scaling | Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 231_019 | Other | AI-timing | Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in n… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |