Predictions
1,607 of 1,607 predictions match — page 3 of 33. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 231_031 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T val… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 231_037 | Space | SpaceX | Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch t… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 62.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 231_041 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing d… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 231_044 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Universal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 231_046 | AI | AI-timing | Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plot… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| 231_047 | AI | AI-timing | Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 231_053 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Within a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 232_013 | AI | AI-timing | Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 202… | Jimmy Ba | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 232_014 | AI | AI-timing | Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 232_015 | AI | AI-scaling | AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 232_021 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administrat… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 232_022 | Macro/Economy | economy | Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI. | Ben Horowitz | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| 232_029 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Entry-level workers have approximately 2 years to secure employment before AI… | Unnamed frontier lab mid-level executive | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 232_043 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Corporate CEOs will soon mandate AI use in every job; AI-native enablers will… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| 232_060 | AI | AI-scaling | We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicat… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 233_005 | AI | AI-scaling | Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 62.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 233_007 | Education | AI-scaling | In 2026, Alpha will launch new schools beyond the flagship model based on the… | Joe Liemandt | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 233_009 | Education | AI-timing | A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in … | Joe Liemandt | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-05-31 |
| 233_010 | Education | AI-timing | Alpha aims to build 10,000 schools and reach a billion kids over 20 years. | Joe Liemandt | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2046-09-30 |
| 233_014 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-scaling | Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won'… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2038-11-30 |
| 233_016 | Education | AI-timing | Alpha will keep opening schools coast-to-coast; 13 new schools this year with… | MacKenzie Price | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-05-31 |
| 233_020 | Education | AI-timing | Texas Sports Academy will operate at $300/month per parent using Texas billio… | Joe Liemandt | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-05-31 |
| 234_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Within 6 months to 2 years, AI will do absolutely everything | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 234_005 | AI | AGI | Demis Hassabis predicts AGI will have 10x industrial revolution impact at 10x… | Demis Hassabis | 3/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| 234_006 | AI | AI-timing | Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering p… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-09-30 |
| 234_014 | Markets/Stocks | $100T | We will see $100 trillion companies in the next 5-year period | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 70.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| 234_015 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 234_017 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks | OpenAI Codex Lead | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 234_018 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-5.3 and 5.5 or higher variants could launch in next 10 weeks | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 234_019 | AI | AI-scaling | Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over nex… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 234_026 | AI | AI-timing | AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 234_035 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-11-30 |
| 234_041 | Other | AI-timing | 50% probability fundamental physics could be solved in the next few years | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 235_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 235_003 | Markets/Stocks | $100T | First $100 trillion companies will emerge before end of this decade. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 235_004 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Next 3-year timeline: massive job loss, total confusion, and rampant unregula… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 235_005 | AI | AI-scaling | AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 235_006 | AI | AI-scaling | By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 235_007 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 235_008 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | B | 50.0% | miss | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 235_009 | Defense | AI-scaling | Anthropic legal recourse process against Dept of War will take three years. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-09-30 |
| 235_014 | AI | AI-timing | Sam Altman predicted 40x year-over-year hyperdeflation of AI costs at constan… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 235_022 | Energy | AI-timing | US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 235_027 | Biotech/Longevity | synbio | Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 235_029 | Biotech/Longevity | synbio | Big pharma companies will transition into longevity business in next 3 years. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 235_042 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. | Peter Diamandis | 2/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-05-31 |
| 235_046 | Geopolitics | AI-scaling | Window of global AI regulation is a few months before capabilities proliferat… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 236_003 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 | Andrew Yang | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 236_004 | AI | AI-scaling | Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 236_015 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Unnamed tech CEO plans to fire 15% of workers now, 20% in 2 years, 20% more a… | Unnamed tech CEO | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |