Predictions
1,607 of 1,607 predictions match — page 4 of 33. Click any row to view its detail.
Filters
Domain
AllAIAI/AgentsAI/AGIAI/ArchitectureAI/ChinaAI/CognitionAI/ComputeAI/CorporateAI/FinanceAI/HardwareAI/InfrastructureAI/ManufacturingAI/MarketsAI/MathematicsAI/PhysicsAI/SoftwareAI/StartupsAI/StrategyAuto/TransportBiotech/LongevityCapital MarketsConsumerCryptoDefenseEconomyEconomy/OrgEducationEnergyEnergy/ComputeFinance/CryptoGeopoliticsInvestingLabor/JobsMacro/EconomyManufacturingMarkets/StocksMedia/AdsOtherPolicy/SemisQuantumQuantum/AIReal EstateRoboticsSemisSemis/ASICsSemis/GeopoliticsSemis/HardwareSemis/MarketsSemis/MemorySemis/PackagingSemis/Productsshort_horizon_breakoutSpaceSpace/ComputeTechnology
Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 236_017 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Rampant social unrest will occur during 2-year window if nothing is done quickly | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 237_003 | AI | AI-timing | 12 months in AI will be like 12 years; the next year will be wild. | Alex Finn | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 237_006 | AI | AI-scaling | Over the next year, consumers will realize local models are the way to go on … | Alex Finn | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 237_009 | AI | AI-scaling | ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. | Alex Finn | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 237_010 | Crypto | AI-scaling | In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled wit… | Alex Finn | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 237_012 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Over the next 12 months OpenClaw technology will be digested into corporation… | Alex Finn | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| 237_013 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Over 12-24 months value created by consumer adoption of OpenClaw will outweig… | Alex Finn | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 237_015 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | There will be significantly more AI claws/agents than humans within a typical… | Alex Finn | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| 237_016 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | A specific-sliver OpenClaw-powered vertical SaaS could become a $5 million co… | Alex Finn | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 237_022 | AI | AI-scaling | Alex Finn plans to build an autonomous closed-loop organization where agents … | Alex Finn | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 237_024 | AI | AI-timing | Skippy will listen to this YouTube video and self-improve based on the transc… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 237_025 | AI | AI-timing | We are currently in the midst of the singularity, not waiting for it in the 2… | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 237_027 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | 100 million people using OpenClaw will each start businesses hiring ~3 people… | Alex Finn | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 237_028 | Media/Ads | orbital-AI | Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, a… | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_004 | Media/Ads | AI-timing | Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films … | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 238_006 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years… | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 238_010 | AI | AGI | AI takeoff/inflection is happening now | Emad Mostaque | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 238_017 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Uber will automate approximately 30% of its employment this year (2026) | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 238_023 | AI | AI-scaling | Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in … | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_025 | AI | AI-timing | AI computer-use benchmarks (OSWorld, Tbench) have broken through human level | Emad Mostaque | 5/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 238_039 | AI | AI-timing | Apple's underused unified memory overhang will likely collapse within the nex… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 238_047 | Energy | AI-timing | US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 238_061 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 238_062 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Industrial-revolution-scale disruption will unfold over 2-4 years (not 20-40) | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 238_068 | Macro/Economy | economy | Mark Pack Donovan to distribute 5% of wealth fund annually to 44 people (UBI-… | Mark Pack Donovan | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 238_072 | AI | AI-scaling | Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 239_002 | AI | AGI | AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 … | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 239_003 | AI | AGI | We are currently in AI hard takeoff | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 239_013 | Robotics | Optimus | Tesla will release an improved Optimus design every year | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 239_033 | Robotics | Optimus | Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 240_001 | Markets/Stocks | $100T | NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 240_004 | AI | AI-timing | A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 240_008 | Geopolitics | NVIDIA | NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming months | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 240_010 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 240_016 | AI | AI-scaling | Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 240_019 | AI | AI-scaling | Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 240_027 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX | SpaceX and xAI will merge and go public in the next couple of months | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 240_028 | Space | AI-scaling | Dyson swarm will be the inevitable destiny within 10 years | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| 240_029 | AI | AI-scaling | ASML will produce only 700-1000 EUV machines per year, bottlenecking fab buil… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 240_032 | AI | AI-timing | PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few y… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| 240_034 | Energy | AI-timing | Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 240_041 | AI | AI-scaling | Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the ne… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 240_042 | Macro/Economy | economy | Economy will be 10x larger in 10 years (Elon's number) | Elon Musk | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 240_046 | Media/Ads | AI-timing | Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 240_048 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Spreadsheet, SQL, code, UI jobs will be done by AI starting at end of this year | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 240_050 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 241_005 | AI | AI-scaling | 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 241_006 | AI | AI-timing | Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 241_011 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 241_016 | Energy | AI-timing | 92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030 | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |