Predictions
1,621 of 1,621 predictions match — page 5 of 33. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 241_017 | Energy | AI-timing | Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 241_021 | Markets/Stocks | $100T | America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-09-30 |
| 241_022 | Macro/Economy | economy | Data center buildout is ~1% of US GDP growth | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 241_031 | AI | AI-timing | Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 241_046 | AI | AI-timing | Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 241_050 | AI | autonomous | AI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new sol… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 241_052 | Energy | AI-timing | Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 241_053 | AI | NVIDIA | AI chips are 2 kilowatts each - requires water cooling | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 241_061 | Robotics | humanoids | China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (no… | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 241_062 | AI | AI-timing | Best AI labs will need to be controlled by humans (at the moment) | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 242_010 | AI | AI-scaling | By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new m… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 242_012 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Flying cars (eVTOLs) will be operating in US within 18 months | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 242_035 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FC… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-05-31 |
| 242_048 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-scaling | FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computationa… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-09-30 |
| 242_049 | Macro/Economy | AI-scaling | W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 243_002 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Uber will be in 15 cities with autonomous partners by end of 2026 | Dara Khosrowshahi | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 243_032 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20% | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-05-31 |
| 243_033 | Labor/Jobs | autonomous | About 20% of drivers slough off Uber platform annually | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 243_035 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Austin and Atlanta autonomous markets growing faster than national average | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 243_041 | Consumer | AI-timing | Delivery/retail (non-food) business growing much faster than expected | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 243_043 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Tesla Cybercab priced around $30K vs Waymo cars around $150K | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 243_044 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | Tesla with FSD is 10 times safer than human driving (host claim) | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 243_045 | Auto/Transport | jobs | Joby Abu Dhabi partnership will save hours of travel time | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 244_003 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Regulators will have to decide what a human driver's license looks like | Dara Khosrowshahi | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2051-11-30 |
| 244_020 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 244_023 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Over next 10 years, will see a lot of augmentation of work and some replacement | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-12-31 |
| 244_032 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) | Dara Khosrowshahi | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 245_014 | Biotech/Longevity | synbio | Colossal has major announcements coming this year with a local government on … | Ben Lamm | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 245_027 | Biotech/Longevity | synbio | Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by … | Ben Lamm | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_001 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX | SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO … | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 246_002 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX | SpaceX 2026 revenue will double to $20 billion (from $16B in 2025). | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_004 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX | SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-05-31 |
| 246_005 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 246_006 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-05-31 |
| 246_008 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX | Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2027-05-31 |
| 246_015 | Space | SpaceX | Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). | Elon Musk | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_021 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 246_022 | AI | AI-scaling | Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). | PolyMarket | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 246_023 | AI | AI-timing | Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. | PolyMarket | 3/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 246_025 | AI | AI-timing | Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). | Sam Altman | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 246_026 | AI | AI-timing | In next year, significant cyber threats to mitigate from AI models (cited Alt… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 246_030 | Markets/Stocks | AI-timing | DeepSeek V4 will NOT shock markets like prior DeepSeek releases. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 246_037 | AI | NVIDIA | 50% of US data centers delayed, only 33% being built (due to chip/electrical … | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_047 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic ARR reached $30B, surpassing OpenAI's $24-25B. | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 246_051 | AI | AI-scaling | GPT-5.5 Spud will have equal or greater capability to Mythos. | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 246_052 | AI | AI-scaling | Frontier labs holding back capabilities for internal self-improvement use. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 247_001 | AI | $100T | xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 247_002 | AI | AI-scaling | Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company … | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 247_006 | AI | AI-timing | Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 247_008 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic will try to hit $200 billion ARR, not reach trillion the following … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |