Predictions
1,621 of 1,621 predictions match — page 6 of 33. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 247_009 | AI | AI-scaling | Anthropic's implied valuation could reach $2 trillion in 2026 | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 247_013 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | 99% of randomly selected white collar jobs could be replaced by AI today | Peter Dannenberg | 4/5 | C | 25.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 247_028 | AI | AI-scaling | Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 247_032 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Full cell simulation achievable within 5 years | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-09-30 |
| 247_033 | Biotech/Longevity | AGI | Timelines for solving all disease are collapsing; Demis says cure all disease… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | C | 70.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-06-30 |
| 247_034 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Dario Amodei said double human lifespan within the decade | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-11-30 |
| 247_041 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 247_045 | Robotics | humanoids | 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 247_046 | AI | AI-timing | AI investment will reach $3 billion per day, up from $2B in 2025 | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 247_048 | Energy | AI-timing | Battery energy densities improving 8% year-over-year per constant dollar | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 247_057 | AI | AI-scaling | Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 248_001 | Space | SpaceX | Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual sate… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 248_004 | Space | SpaceX | Launching 40,000 V3 Starlinks requires only 3 Starship launches per week over… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 248_008 | AI | AI-timing | Jack Dorsey aims to reduce Block's org depth from 5 to 2-3 layers this year. | Jack Dorsey | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 248_011 | AI | AI-scaling | Frontier AI models will become a terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical weapon th… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 248_026 | Other | AI-timing | Organized religions will embrace AI barring a civilization-level disruption. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 248_031 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajector… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 248_041 | Space | orbital-AI | Maine data center moratorium gives other states / Elon time to move compute t… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 248_043 | Robotics | AI-scaling | Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| AI_002 | AI | country-of-geniuses-datacenter | Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses i… | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| AI_004 | AI | smarter-than-smartest-human | AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automat… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 25.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| AI_005 | AI | jagged-intelligence | Current frontier models suffer from 'jagged intelligence' — excelling at inte… | Demis Hassabis | 4/5 | A | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| AI_010 | AI | Slopacolypse-code-atrophy | The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the… | Andrej Karpathy | 5/5 | A | 90.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| AI_013 | Markets/Stocks | SaaSpocalypse | 'SaaSpocalypse' — traditional Software-as-a-Service incumbents (Salesforce, A… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| AI_014 | AI | agent-native-infrastructure | A new 'Agent-Native Infrastructure' category emerges — legacy digital infrast… | Marc Andreessen | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| AI_016 | AI | AI-experience-curve-vs-Moore | The 'cost of intelligence' collapse has officially superseded traditional Moo… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 5/5 | B | 90.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| AI_017 | Semis | NemoClaw-Vera-CPU-rack | NVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized pro… | Jensen Huang | 4/5 | A | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| AI_019 | Markets/Stocks | copper-basemetals-alpha | Copper and other critical base metals will be the premier investment assets o… | Chamath Palihapitiya | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-05-31 |
| AI_021 | Labor/Jobs | Great-Disemboweling | The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment … | Andrew Yang | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| AI_023 | AI | synthetic-CEO-clone | Inside Uber, 90% of software engineers currently rely on AI, and executive te… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 5/5 | B | 95.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| AI_028 | Crypto | Bitchat-BLE-mesh | Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks … | Jack Dorsey | 3/5 | C | 32.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| AI_033 | Education | 2.3x-learning-rate | AI-powered mastery learning allows students to master traditional academics i… | MacKenzie Price | 5/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-05-31 |
| AI_037 | Geopolitics | EU-AI-Act-compliance | EU AI Act compliance will become a first-class enterprise priority — Anthropi… | Daniella Amodei | 4/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| AUT_001 | AI | HIM-5-agent-autonomous-org | The HIM platform has demonstrated commercial viability of autonomous multi-ag… | Alex Finn | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| AUT_002 | AI | unified-mathematical-substrate | Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unif… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | C | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| AUT_005 | Defense | Silicon-Valley-defense-convergence | Fundamental convergence between autonomous AI, enterprise software, and globa… | Ben Horowitz | 4/5 | B | 78.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| AUT_007 | Macro/Economy | US-GDP-5-to-6-2-percent-2026 | 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing mas… | Chamath Palihapitiya | 5/5 | B | 18.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| AUT_008 | Auto/Transport | Uber-AV-partnerships-20K-vehicles | Uber has structured partnerships integrating Waymo, May Mobility, Lucid Group… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 5/5 | A | 68.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2056-11-30 |
| AUT_009 | AI | Powerful-AI-nation-of-geniuses | 'Powerful AI' (functional AGI) arrives 2026-2027 — data centers house a 'nati… | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 35.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| AUT_010 | AI | alignment-catastrophic-failure | As models transition from passive advisors to active multi-step task executor… | Daniella Amodei | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| AUT_013 | Auto/Transport | robotaxi-25-50-percent-US-2026 | 'Unsupervised' Tesla Robotaxis will achieve operational capability across 25-… | Elon Musk | 5/5 | A | 15.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| AUT_014 | AI | open-source-autonomous-proliferation | Most profound impacts of autonomous AI originate NOT from closed proprietary … | Emad Mostaque | 4/5 | C | 62.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| AUT_015 | Defense | cheap-satellites-loitering-munitions | Complete obsolescence of traditional military procurement — national security… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | A | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| AUT_016 | AI | Rubin-Alpamayo-Mercedes-2026 | NVIDIA Rubin platform in full production by 2026 — slashes computational cost… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| AUT_018 | Labor/Jobs | L1-customer-support-extinct | Level 1 customer support sector functionally extinct and replaced by autonomo… | Jason Calacanis | 4/5 | C | 30.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| AUT_019 | AI | GPU-rental-50-percent-spike | Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — … | Kevin Weil | 4/5 | C | 80.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| AUT_021 | AI | multimodal-data-entropy-bottleneck | Defining software movement of 2026: startups building autonomous platforms sp… | Marc Andreessen | 5/5 | B | 75.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| AUT_022 | Auto/Transport | AV-inflection-2026-33-launches | 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecastin… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 58.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| AUT_024 | AI | massive-AI-breakthrough-H1-2026 | H1 2026 will deliver a 'massive AI breakthrough' driven by unprecedented conc… | Morgan Stanley | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| CMQ_001 | AI | AGI-capability-roadmap | By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual intern… | Sam Altman | 5/5 | A | 72.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |