Predictions

1,622 of 1,622 predictions match — page 7 of 33. Click any row to view its detail.

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IDDomainTopicTitlePredictorConvSQPriorStatusWindow
CMQ_004AIAGI-capability-roadmapAGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professio…Dario Amodei5/5A60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30
CMQ_005AIsoftware-automationAI will handle the entire software development process end-to-end within 6-12…Dario Amodei5/5A68.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31
CMQ_008Labor/Jobsautomation-policyRapid agentic automation of white-collar work could precipitate an employment…Dario Amodei4/5A55.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31
CMQ_009AIAGI-realismAltman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is '…Demis Hassabis5/5A70.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2028-08-31
CMQ_010AIAGI-definitionTrue AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class …Demis Hassabis4/5A60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2035-11-30
CMQ_011AIAI-alignmentAGI is plausible within 10 years, BUT alignment and safety must be solved BEF…Demis Hassabis4/5A50.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31
CMQ_017Energypower-gridUS electricity production must grow by 'tens of percent' by end of decade to …Leopold Aschenbrenner5/5A75.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
CMQ_019GeopoliticsAI-safety-governancePhysical intervention (literally unplugging data centers) may be required onc…Eric Schmidt4/5A20.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31
CMQ_020Macro/EconomyAI-capexNearly $2.5 trillion of AI-related infrastructure investment will flow throug…Morgan Stanley5/5A72.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_021Macro/EconomyAI-as-macro-variableAI has transitioned from a thematic technology disruption to a primary macroe…Morgan Stanley4/5A80.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_022AIsuperintelligenceAGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw c…Elon Musk5/5A50.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31
CMQ_023AI/Computetokens-economyTokens are the new raw material — data centers are no longer cost centers but…Jensen Huang5/5A85.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_024AI/Computetokens-per-watt'Tokens per Watt' is the defining Key Performance Indicator (KPI) for the mod…Jensen Huang5/5A80.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_025AI/ComputeDC-replacementThe entire global installed base of data centers must be ripped out and repla…Jensen Huang5/5A78.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2032-12-31
CMQ_027AI/Computeinference-shiftThe inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-d…Jensen Huang5/5A92.0%hit2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_029Semis/MemoryDRAM-mandateDRAM manufacturers must expand production aggressively — 'NVIDIA will buy all…Jensen Huang5/5A90.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31
CMQ_030AI/ComputeCPU-resurgenceIn the modern AI pipeline, the CPU no longer merely supports the model — it d…Jensen Huang5/5A78.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_032Macro/Economycost-of-intelligenceExponential collapse in cost of intelligence shifts the primary economic bott…Alex Wissner-Gross4/5A75.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31
CMQ_033Semis/MemoryHBM-demandGlobal HBM demand will reach 32 billion Gb by 2026 — HBM is the absolute crit…Morgan Stanley5/5A82.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_034Semis/MemoryHBM-shortageHBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage exten…Morgan Stanley5/5A85.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31
CMQ_035Semis/MemoryHBM4-complexityHBM4 16-layer stack design (required for Vera Rubin) places unprecedented yie…Jensen Huang / Morgan Stanley5/5A75.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31
CMQ_036Semis/MemorySK-Hynix-shareSK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HB…Morgan Stanley5/5A78.0%partial2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_037Semis/MemorySamsung-shareSamsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majorit…Morgan Stanley4/5A50.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_038Semis/MemoryMicron-HBM4Micron has initiated HVM production of HBM4 36GB module delivering 2.8 TB/s b…Micron5/5A85.0%hit2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_039Semis/PackagingTSMC-CoWoSTSMC CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity must expand to 125,000 wafer…Morgan Stanley5/5A80.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_041Semis/Memoryconsumer-DRAM-shortageReallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unad…Morgan Stanley5/5A82.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31
CMQ_042AI/ComputeCPU-bottleneck-shiftAs AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks sh…Morgan Stanley5/5A72.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_043AI/ComputeCPU-latencyIn complex Agentic AI workloads, CPU-side processing accounts for 50-90% of e…Morgan Stanley / Georgia Tech / Intel5/5A92.0%hit2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_044AI/ComputeCPU-GPU-ratioFuture data-center architectures optimized for agentic workflows may require …Morgan Stanley5/5A65.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31
CMQ_045SemisCPU-TAM-expansionAgentic AI will create additional CPU market space of $10B-$100B by 2030, pot…Morgan Stanley5/5A60.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_046Semis/Memoryagentic-DRAMSustained memory contexts required for agent 'memory' will drive additional 1…Morgan Stanley5/5A68.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_047AIautonomous-agentsAutonomous code agents and AutoResearch systems will close the loop on comple…Andrej Karpathy4/5A65.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
CMQ_048Labor/Jobscall-center-displacementAgentic AI will fully replace Level 1 customer support call centers globally …Jason Calacanis / David Sacks5/5B70.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31
CMQ_049AI/Marketsplatform-monopolyTraditional tech giants (Apple, Meta, Microsoft) with massive existing platfo…Jason Calacanis4/5B50.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31
CMQ_052Roboticshumanoid-economicsHumanoid robot price will drop to ~$20K-$30K per unit — leased cost ~$500/mon…Brett Adcock5/5A45.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
CMQ_054Macro/Economyabundance-thesisHumanoid physical automation (Optimus + Figure + competitors) will usher in a…Elon Musk5/5A20.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2035-12-31
CMQ_055Roboticshumanoid-UIMultimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the defau…Brett Adcock4/5A78.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30
CMQ_056AI/Computeedge-SLMSmall Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques wi…Dario Amodei4/5A82.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_057AIdemocratizationDemocratization of sophisticated AI tools means any 'kid in a basement' can n…Mark Cuban4/5B85.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31
CMQ_058AI/Computelocal-computeLocalized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300'…Alex Finn4/5B80.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CMQ_059AIlocal-compute-driversShift to local compute is driven by: (1) absolute data privacy, (2) cost cont…Alex Finn4/5B82.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
CMQ_063Quantum/AIquantum-AI-integrationQuantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-scie…Alex Wissner-Gross3/5B15.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2035-12-31
COD_ROB_003Roboticshumanoid-deploymentAt least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end …Codex Research Pack3/5—58.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31
COD_SPC_003SpaceStarship-orbital-refuelingSpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant…Codex Research Pack4/5—35.0%pending2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CYB_002Macro/Economyintegration-schlepDespite raw agentic tool-use benchmarks tracking ahead of schedule, the enter…Leopold Aschenbrenner4/5B85.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31
CYB_003AIautonomous-agent-societiesLocalized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their …Alex Finn4/5C62.0%partial2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31
CYB_004AIAAIF-interoperability-standardsThe Agentic AI Foundation (AAIF) under the Linux Foundation — backed by Dorse…Jack Dorsey4/5C58.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2029-09-30
CYB_005AImemory-becomes-moat'Memory becomes the moat' — by 2026, the global discourse around 'AI safety' …Ray Kurzweil5/5B72.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31
CYB_008Semismemory-capex-8-to-30Hyperscaler capital expenditure specifically on memory architecture leaps fro…Morgan Stanley5/5B78.0%in_progress2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31
CYB_009AITPU-to-GPU-architectural-rewriteHardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewri…David Holz4/5C90.0%hit2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30