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245_027predictionBiotech/Longevitysynbio

Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by end of 2026

Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
41.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30
Edges in / out
1 / 2
Tickers exposed
24

Prediction text

Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by end of 2026 | we we've surpassed the largest delivery by 5x already um I think that's we'll be at 20x before the end of this year

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)"
we we've surpassed the largest delivery by 5x already um I think that's we'll be at 20x before the end of this year

Predictor: Ben Lamm

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0043
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

8 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-102026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 41.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 2 overdue ⏱ · 3 pending
  1. 2026-03-04overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-04-12hitColossal publicly announces 5x prior-largest DNA delivery already achieved
    How: Colossal/Lamm publicly confirms 5x scaling of largest prior synthesized-DNA delivery (basis of original prediction)
    Source: 24/7 Wall St. — Colossal's Ben Lamm interview (April 2026)conf 85%
    Notes: HIT (basis claim) — Lamm has publicly confirmed major scaling already achieved. 20x is forward-looking from this baseline.
  3. 2026-04-15hitColossal makes Bluebuck de-extinction breakthrough disclosure
    How: Colossal publishes scientific or press disclosure of major de-extinction breakthrough requiring novel DNA delivery scale
    Source: Men's Journal — Colossal Biosciences Takes Major Step Toward Bluebuck De-Extinctionconf 85%
    Notes: HIT — Bluebuck de-extinction breakthrough announced, requires advanced DNA delivery cassettes.
  4. 2026-05-06overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  5. 2026-04-01 → 2026-09-30pendingColossal demonstrates DNA delivery in small mammal first as scaling step
    How: Colossal publicly demonstrates large-cassette synthesized DNA delivery into a small mammal (mouse/rat or similar) as proof step
    Source: Pulse2 — Colossal Biosciences Profile Interview With Ben Lammconf 70%
    Notes: Lamm publicly stated path: small mammal first, then scale up by end of 2026.
  6. 2026-07-07pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  7. 2026-04-01 → 2026-12-31pendingForm Bio (Colossal spinout) commercializes large DNA delivery technology
    How: Form Bio announces commercial customer for large-cassette mammalian-genome DNA delivery service
    Source: Infinite Frontiers — Interview: Ben Lamm | Colossal Biosciencesconf 50%
  8. 2026-10-01 → 2026-12-31pendingColossal claims 20x prior-largest DNA synthesis delivery by year-end 2026
    How: Colossal publicly confirms DNA synthesis delivery reached 20x previous largest known delivery by end of 2026
    Source: Pulse2 — Colossal Biosciences interview (Lamm prediction quote)conf 45%
    Notes: Direct measurement of claim. From 5x current to 20x by year-end requires 4x further scaling in ~8 months.
  9. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingPeer review or publication validates Colossal's large-cassette delivery technique
    How: At least one peer-reviewed publication validates Colossal's novel large-cassette mammalian DNA delivery technique
    Source: Wikipedia — Colossal Biosciences scientific track recordconf 50%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 41%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z41.0%+1.9pp
Network propagation: 39.1% → 41.0%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z39.1%+3.8pp
Network propagation: 35.4% → 39.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-14T22:14:31Z35.4%-6.6pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.354 blend=0.354 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.5978175432328857,
  "kappa": 0.6875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Ben Lamm",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.32492212802480736,
  "bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.41947665813166585,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.6875,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.278757261824363,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-06",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.5815277197369799,
  "outside_weight": 0.4184722802630201,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3535023592047292,
  "posterior_logit": -0.6036793898491704,
  "predictor_brier": 0.00427,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3535023592047292,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3535023592047292,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.278757261824363,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 3
}
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z41.9%+1.3pp
Network propagation: 40.7% → 41.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z40.7%+2.4pp
Network propagation: 38.3% → 40.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z38.3%-6.8pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.383 blend=0.383 LLR=-0.279 κ=0.69 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.6338685427014515,
  "kappa": 0.6875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Ben Lamm",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.19943541211900573,
  "bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.4503057514730341,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.6875,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.278757261824363,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-04",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.5562920201089838,
  "outside_weight": 0.4437079798910162,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3826789896850393,
  "posterior_logit": -0.47819267394336873,
  "predictor_brier": 0.00427,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3826789896850393,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3826789896850393,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.278757261824363,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 3
}
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z45.0%-1.7pp
Network propagation: 46.7% → 45.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.7%-3.3pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK13
Biotech/Synbio Safety Event
15.0%0.0500.500+0.022

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq245_024
Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up fromBen Lamm
34.2%0.5000.050-0.103
prereq233_015
Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.Peter Diamandis
37.6%0.6500.050-0.073

Ticker exposure

24 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (19)

ABCLNTLASDGRPACBRXRXRLAYDNATXGTWSTABSICRSPILMNMDTABTAZNBNTXGEHCGOOGLSMMNY

Adverse (4)

NVOFMSDVAPFE

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK13Biotech/Synbio Safety Event

Dependents (2)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq233_015Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.Biotech/Longevity
prereq245_024Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)Biotech/Longevity

Linked documents (9)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.645manifoldLargest company end of September 2026?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.592fdaFDA BLA022472: AFREZZA (INSULIN RECOMBINANT HUMAN) — MANNKINDmentionspending2026-05-29
0.589fdaFDA ANDA213929: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — LEADINGmentionspending2026-05-05
0.578gdeltindex?more=4376950mentionspending2026-04-30
0.565fdaFDA ANDA074544: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — EPIC PHARMA LLCmentionspending2026-05-05
0.563fdaFDA NDA016730: DEXTROSE 5% IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (DEXTROSE) — B BRAUNmentionspending2026-05-12
0.561fdaFDA ANDA211132: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — INGENUS PHARMS LLCmentionspending2026-05-05
0.559fdaFDA NDA021038: PRECEDEX (DEXMEDETOMIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HOSPIRAmentionspending2026-05-01
0.556fdaFDA ANDA216453: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — ELITE LABS INCmentionspending2026-05-27

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "20x largest delivery by end of year 2026",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "we we've surpassed the largest delivery by 5x already um I think that's we'll be at 20x before the end of this year",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "we we've surpassed the largest delivery by 5x already um I think that's we'll be at 20x before the end of this year",
  "conv_cues": "I think; we'll be at 20x",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "End of 2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-04",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal publicly announces 5x prior-largest DNA delivery already achieved",
      "notes": "HIT (basis claim) — Lamm has publicly confirmed major scaling already achieved. 20x is forward-looking from this baseline.",
      "source": "24/7 Wall St. — Colossal's Ben Lamm interview (April 2026)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/12/colossals-ben-lamm-says-invasive-species-is-a-5-4-trillion-problem-heres-his-solution/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-12",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal/Lamm publicly confirms 5x scaling of largest prior synthesized-DNA delivery (basis of original prediction)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal makes Bluebuck de-extinction breakthrough disclosure",
      "notes": "HIT — Bluebuck de-extinction breakthrough announced, requires advanced DNA delivery cassettes.",
      "source": "Men's Journal — Colossal Biosciences Takes Major Step Toward Bluebuck De-Extinction",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.mensjournal.com/news/colossal-biosciences-bluebuck-de-extinction-breakthrough",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal publishes scientific or press disclosure of major de-extinction breakthrough requiring novel DNA delivery scale"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-06",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-14T22:14:31.900138+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal demonstrates DNA delivery in small mammal first as scaling step",
      "notes": "Lamm publicly stated path: small mammal first, then scale up by end of 2026.",
      "source": "Pulse2 — Colossal Biosciences Profile Interview With Ben Lamm",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://pulse2.com/colossal-biosciences-profile-ben-lamm-interview/",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal publicly demonstrates large-cassette synthesized DNA delivery into a small mammal (mouse/rat or 
... (truncated)