Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by end of 2026
Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source
Prediction text
Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by end of 2026 | we we've surpassed the largest delivery by 5x already um I think that's we'll be at 20x before the end of this year
Verbatim quote
we we've surpassed the largest delivery by 5x already um I think that's we'll be at 20x before the end of this year
Predictor: Ben Lamm
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-03-04overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-04-12hitColossal publicly announces 5x prior-largest DNA delivery already achievedHow: Colossal/Lamm publicly confirms 5x scaling of largest prior synthesized-DNA delivery (basis of original prediction)Source: 24/7 Wall St. — Colossal's Ben Lamm interview (April 2026)conf 85%Notes: HIT (basis claim) — Lamm has publicly confirmed major scaling already achieved. 20x is forward-looking from this baseline.
- 2026-04-15hitColossal makes Bluebuck de-extinction breakthrough disclosureHow: Colossal publishes scientific or press disclosure of major de-extinction breakthrough requiring novel DNA delivery scaleSource: Men's Journal — Colossal Biosciences Takes Major Step Toward Bluebuck De-Extinctionconf 85%Notes: HIT — Bluebuck de-extinction breakthrough announced, requires advanced DNA delivery cassettes.
- 2026-05-06overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-04-01 → 2026-09-30pendingColossal demonstrates DNA delivery in small mammal first as scaling stepHow: Colossal publicly demonstrates large-cassette synthesized DNA delivery into a small mammal (mouse/rat or similar) as proof stepSource: Pulse2 — Colossal Biosciences Profile Interview With Ben Lammconf 70%Notes: Lamm publicly stated path: small mammal first, then scale up by end of 2026.
- 2026-07-07pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2026-04-01 → 2026-12-31pendingForm Bio (Colossal spinout) commercializes large DNA delivery technologyHow: Form Bio announces commercial customer for large-cassette mammalian-genome DNA delivery serviceSource: Infinite Frontiers — Interview: Ben Lamm | Colossal Biosciencesconf 50%
- 2026-10-01 → 2026-12-31pendingColossal claims 20x prior-largest DNA synthesis delivery by year-end 2026How: Colossal publicly confirms DNA synthesis delivery reached 20x previous largest known delivery by end of 2026Source: Pulse2 — Colossal Biosciences interview (Lamm prediction quote)conf 45%Notes: Direct measurement of claim. From 5x current to 20x by year-end requires 4x further scaling in ~8 months.
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingPeer review or publication validates Colossal's large-cassette delivery techniqueHow: At least one peer-reviewed publication validates Colossal's novel large-cassette mammalian DNA delivery techniqueSource: Wikipedia — Colossal Biosciences scientific track recordconf 50%
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Evidence chain
Raw metadata
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}Raw metadata
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}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.022 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (19)
Adverse (4)
Prerequisites (1)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK13 | Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | — | — |
Dependents (2)
Linked documents (9)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.645 | manifold | Largest company end of September 2026? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.592 | fda | FDA BLA022472: AFREZZA (INSULIN RECOMBINANT HUMAN) — MANNKIND | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-29 |
| 0.589 | fda | FDA ANDA213929: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — LEADING | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.578 | gdelt | index?more=4376950 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.565 | fda | FDA ANDA074544: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — EPIC PHARMA LLC | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.563 | fda | FDA NDA016730: DEXTROSE 5% IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (DEXTROSE) — B BRAUN | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-12 |
| 0.561 | fda | FDA ANDA211132: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — INGENUS PHARMS LLC | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.559 | fda | FDA NDA021038: PRECEDEX (DEXMEDETOMIDINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HOSPIRA | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-01 |
| 0.556 | fda | FDA ANDA216453: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — ELITE LABS INC | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-27 |
Raw metadata
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"qty": "20x largest delivery by end of year 2026",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "we we've surpassed the largest delivery by 5x already um I think that's we'll be at 20x before the end of this year",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "we we've surpassed the largest delivery by 5x already um I think that's we'll be at 20x before the end of this year",
"conv_cues": "I think; we'll be at 20x",
"direction": "UP",
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"timeframe": "End of 2026",
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"status": "hit",
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... (truncated)