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245_024predictionBiotech/Longevitysynbio

Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)

Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
34.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-01-01 – 2029-11-30
Edges in / out
5 / 1
Tickers exposed
24

Prediction text

Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds) | We're now doing hundreds of edits at a time... I think in the coming years that's thousands of edits, and those are those are not linear repeats, meaning they're all over the genome.

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)"
We're now doing hundreds of edits at a time... I think in the coming years that's thousands of edits, and those are those are not linear repeats, meaning they're all over the genome.

Predictor: Ben Lamm

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0043
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 34.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 6 pending
  1. 2025-03-04hitColossal Woolly Mouse: 8 simultaneous edits across 7 genes (already achieved)
    How: Colossal demonstrates 8 simultaneous gene edits across 7 genes in mice with peer-reviewed publication
    Source: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250304113074/en/Colossal-Creates-the-Colossal-Woolly-Mouse — Colossal Woolly Mouse, March 2025conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — 8 edits in mice baseline. Lamm's 'hundreds' refers to elephant cell lines for mammoth project.
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingMammoth-like elephant cell line crosses 100 simultaneous edits
    How: Colossal publishes data demonstrating ≥100 simultaneous edits in Asian elephant cell line for mammoth project
    Source: Colossal Biosciences technical updates, Wikipedia/Contrary Researchconf 55%
    Notes: Lamm anchored 'hundreds' as current state — verification needed via published cell-line data.
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingMammoth-like Asian elephant embryo produced
    How: Colossal announces production of Asian elephant embryo with mammoth-trait edits, advancing toward gestational implantation
    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Biosciences — 2025 announcement targeting mammoth-like Asian elephant embryos by 2026conf 50%
    Notes: Direct path-of-progress milestone for the gene-editing scaling claim.
  4. 2027-06-01 → 2029-06-30pendingColossal demonstrates ≥500 simultaneous edits in any cell line
    How: Colossal publishes data showing ≥500 simultaneous distributed edits (not linear repeats) in any mammalian cell line
    Source: Colossal Biosciences research publications, peer reviewconf 40%
    Notes: Halfway to 'thousands' — major intermediate proof.
  5. 2028-06-01 → 2029-11-30pendingColossal achieves ≥1,000 simultaneous edits across genome
    How: Colossal demonstrates ≥1,000 simultaneous, distributed (not linear-repeat) edits in mammalian cell line
    Source: Colossal Biosciences technical disclosure, peer-reviewed publicationconf 30%
    Notes: Cascade — direct realization of Lamm's 'thousands of edits' prediction. Aggressive on 3-4 yr timeline.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 34%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z34.2%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 35.5% → 34.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z35.5%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 38.2% → 35.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z38.2%-6.7pp
Network propagation: 44.8% → 38.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
legacy v12026-04-30T19:17:54Z44.8%+6.3pp
intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937 bayesian_v2 inside=0.448 blend=0.448 LLR=0.261 κ=0.64 no_blend
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z38.5%-3.6pp
Network propagation: 42.1% → 38.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z42.1%-7.9pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 42.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq245_027
Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest pBen Lamm
41.0%0.5000.050-0.103
prereq245_014
Colossal has major announcements coming this year with a locBen Lamm
41.3%0.5000.050-0.102
killerTK13
Biotech/Synbio Safety Event
15.0%0.0500.500+0.090
prereq245_025
Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industryBen Lamm
80.2%0.5000.050+0.066
prereq235_027
Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $Peter Diamandis
46.5%0.5000.050-0.062

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq233_015
Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.Peter Diamandis
37.6%0.6500.050-0.123

Ticker exposure

24 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (19)

ABCLNTLASDGRPACBRXRXRLAYDNATXGTWSTABSICRSPILMNMDTABTAZNBNTXGEHCGOOGLSMMNY

Adverse (4)

NVOFMSDVAPFE

Prerequisites (5)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq245_025Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of editsBiotech/Longevity
prereq235_027Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereq245_014Colossal has major announcements coming this year with a local government on productionizing cloning of endangered speciesBiotech/Longevity
prereq245_027Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by end of 2026Biotech/Longevity
killerTK13Biotech/Synbio Safety Event

Dependents (1)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq233_015Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.Biotech/Longevity

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2029-12-31[Biology 2029-12] t readout (likely late 2026/early 2027) [245_024] Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds) [245_028] Colossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the fipending

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.550codex_research_packColossal - Woolly Mouse Mammoth gene editing validates de-extinction pipelinecorroboratespending2025-03-04
0.550codex_research_packColossal - Dire Wolf projectcorroboratespending2025-04-07
0.550codex_research_packAxios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction targetcorroboratespending2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "From hundreds to thousands of edits simultaneously",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "We're now doing hundreds of edits at a time... I think in the coming years that's thousands of edits",
  "to_year": 2029,
  "verbatim": "We're now doing hundreds of edits at a time... I think in the coming years that's thousands of edits, and those are those are not linear repeats, meaning they're all over the genome.",
  "conv_cues": "I think in the coming years",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "Coming years (2027-2029)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal Woolly Mouse: 8 simultaneous edits across 7 genes (already achieved)",
      "notes": "HIT — 8 edits in mice baseline. Lamm's 'hundreds' refers to elephant cell lines for mammoth project.",
      "source": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250304113074/en/Colossal-Creates-the-Colossal-Woolly-Mouse — Colossal Woolly Mouse, March 2025",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250304113074/en/Colossal-Creates-the-Colossal-Woolly-Mouse-Showcasing-Breakthroughs-in-Multiplex-Genome-Editing-and-Trait-Engineering-on-the-Path-to-a-Mammoth",
      "expected_date": "2025-03-04",
      "observed_date": "2025-03-04",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal demonstrates 8 simultaneous gene edits across 7 genes in mice with peer-reviewed publication"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "245_025",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Colossal has major announcements coming this year with a local government on productionizing cloning of endangered species",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "245_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-14",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by end of 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "245_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-08",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Mammoth-like elephant cell line crosses 100 simultaneous edits",
      "notes": "Lamm anchored 'hundreds' as current state — verification needed via published cell-line data.",
      "source": "Colossal Biosciences technical updates, Wikipedia/Contrary Research",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Biosciences",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal publishes data demonstrating ≥100 simultaneous edits in Asian elephant cell line for mammoth project"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Mammoth-like Asian elephant embryo produced",
      "notes": "Direct path-of-progress milestone for the gene-editing scaling claim.",
      "so
... (truncated)