Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)
Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source
Prediction text
Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds) | We're now doing hundreds of edits at a time... I think in the coming years that's thousands of edits, and those are those are not linear repeats, meaning they're all over the genome.
Verbatim quote
We're now doing hundreds of edits at a time... I think in the coming years that's thousands of edits, and those are those are not linear repeats, meaning they're all over the genome.
Predictor: Ben Lamm
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
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Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-03-04hitColossal Woolly Mouse: 8 simultaneous edits across 7 genes (already achieved)How: Colossal demonstrates 8 simultaneous gene edits across 7 genes in mice with peer-reviewed publicationSource: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250304113074/en/Colossal-Creates-the-Colossal-Woolly-Mouse — Colossal Woolly Mouse, March 2025conf 99%Notes: HIT — 8 edits in mice baseline. Lamm's 'hundreds' refers to elephant cell lines for mammoth project.
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingMammoth-like elephant cell line crosses 100 simultaneous editsHow: Colossal publishes data demonstrating ≥100 simultaneous edits in Asian elephant cell line for mammoth projectSource: Colossal Biosciences technical updates, Wikipedia/Contrary Researchconf 55%Notes: Lamm anchored 'hundreds' as current state — verification needed via published cell-line data.
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingMammoth-like Asian elephant embryo producedHow: Colossal announces production of Asian elephant embryo with mammoth-trait edits, advancing toward gestational implantationSource: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Biosciences — 2025 announcement targeting mammoth-like Asian elephant embryos by 2026conf 50%Notes: Direct path-of-progress milestone for the gene-editing scaling claim.
- 2027-06-01 → 2029-06-30pendingColossal demonstrates ≥500 simultaneous edits in any cell lineHow: Colossal publishes data showing ≥500 simultaneous distributed edits (not linear repeats) in any mammalian cell lineSource: Colossal Biosciences research publications, peer reviewconf 40%Notes: Halfway to 'thousands' — major intermediate proof.
- 2028-06-01 → 2029-11-30pendingColossal achieves ≥1,000 simultaneous edits across genomeHow: Colossal demonstrates ≥1,000 simultaneous, distributed (not linear-repeat) edits in mammalian cell lineSource: Colossal Biosciences technical disclosure, peer-reviewed publicationconf 30%Notes: Cascade — direct realization of Lamm's 'thousands of edits' prediction. Aggressive on 3-4 yr timeline.
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 245_027 Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest p — Ben Lamm | 41.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.103 |
| prereq | 245_014 Colossal has major announcements coming this year with a loc — Ben Lamm | 41.3% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.102 |
| killer | TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.090 |
| prereq | 245_025 Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry — Ben Lamm | 80.2% | 0.500 | 0.050 | +0.066 |
| prereq | 235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $ — Peter Diamandis | 46.5% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.062 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 233_015 Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids. — Peter Diamandis | 37.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.123 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (19)
Adverse (4)
Prerequisites (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 245_025 | Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 235_027 | Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 245_014 | Colossal has major announcements coming this year with a local government on productionizing cloning of endangered species | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 245_027 | Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by end of 2026 | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| killer | TK13 | Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | — | — |
Dependents (1)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 233_015 | Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2029-12-31 | [Biology 2029-12] t readout (likely late 2026/early 2027) [245_024] Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds) [245_028] Colossal's models and approach to synthetic biology will apply broadly to the fi | pending |
Linked documents (3)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.550 | codex_research_pack | Colossal - Woolly Mouse Mammoth gene editing validates de-extinction pipeline | — | corroborates | pending | 2025-03-04 |
| 0.550 | codex_research_pack | Colossal - Dire Wolf project | — | corroborates | pending | 2025-04-07 |
| 0.550 | codex_research_pack | Axios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction target | — | corroborates | pending | 2026-04-30 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "From hundreds to thousands of edits simultaneously",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "We're now doing hundreds of edits at a time... I think in the coming years that's thousands of edits",
"to_year": 2029,
"verbatim": "We're now doing hundreds of edits at a time... I think in the coming years that's thousands of edits, and those are those are not linear repeats, meaning they're all over the genome.",
"conv_cues": "I think in the coming years",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2027,
"timeframe": "Coming years (2027-2029)",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Colossal Woolly Mouse: 8 simultaneous edits across 7 genes (already achieved)",
"notes": "HIT — 8 edits in mice baseline. Lamm's 'hundreds' refers to elephant cell lines for mammoth project.",
"source": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250304113074/en/Colossal-Creates-the-Colossal-Woolly-Mouse — Colossal Woolly Mouse, March 2025",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250304113074/en/Colossal-Creates-the-Colossal-Woolly-Mouse-Showcasing-Breakthroughs-in-Multiplex-Genome-Editing-and-Trait-Engineering-on-the-Path-to-a-Mammoth",
"expected_date": "2025-03-04",
"observed_date": "2025-03-04",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Colossal demonstrates 8 simultaneous gene edits across 7 genes in mice with peer-reviewed publication"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "245_025",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Colossal has major announcements coming this year with a local government on productionizing cloning of endangered species",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "245_014",
"expected_date": "2026-05-30",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "235_027",
"expected_date": "2026-08-14",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Colossal DNA synthesis delivery will reach 20x the largest prior delivery by end of 2026",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "245_027",
"expected_date": "2026-09-08",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Mammoth-like elephant cell line crosses 100 simultaneous edits",
"notes": "Lamm anchored 'hundreds' as current state — verification needed via published cell-line data.",
"source": "Colossal Biosciences technical updates, Wikipedia/Contrary Research",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Biosciences",
"expected_date": "2026-12-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-06-30",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Colossal publishes data demonstrating ≥100 simultaneous edits in Asian elephant cell line for mammoth project"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Mammoth-like Asian elephant embryo produced",
"notes": "Direct path-of-progress milestone for the gene-editing scaling claim.",
"so
... (truncated)