245_014predictionBiotech/Longevitysynbio

Colossal has major announcements coming this year with a local government on productionizing cloning of endangered species

Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source

Prior probability

50.0%

Current probability

41.3%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-01-01 – 2026-06-30

Edges in / out

1 / 2

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Colossal has major announcements coming this year with a local government on productionizing cloning of endangered species | We have some big announcements this year with the with a with a local government on it.

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)"

We have some big announcements this year with the with a with a local government on it.

Predictor: Ben Lamm

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.688

Brier

0.0043

excellent

Hits / Misses

2 / 0

of 3 resolved

Hit rate

66.7%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 41.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 5 overdue ⏱

2026-02-07overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-03-16overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-30overdueViagen acquisition integration enables productionized cloning pipeline
How: Colossal publishes Viagen integration milestone showing scaled cloning throughput in conservation context
Source: https://screenrant.com/colossal-biosciences-acquires-viagen-animal-cloning/conf 70%
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-30overdueGovernment MoU or co-funded program announced for endangered-species cloning
How: Government entity (US/Mexico/Australia) announces formal funding or operational partnership with Colossal for endangered-species cloning at production scale
Source: Colossal Biosciences press releases, government press officesconf 55%
Notes: Lamm's exact language: 'with a local government on it' implies a named partnership.
2026-04-20hitColossal cloned 4 red wolves announced
How: Colossal publicly announces successful cloning of red wolves, the most endangered wolf species
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/04/20/1135222/red-wolves-colossal-biosciences-clones/conf 95%
Notes: HIT — Red wolf cloning announced (though Association of Zoos and Aquariums was not informed).
2026-04-22overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-04-30hitBluebuck de-extinction project announced
How: Colossal publicly adds bluebuck (extinct South African antelope) to de-extinction species roster
Source: https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/colossal-biosciences-species-extinction-bluebuckconf 95%
Notes: HIT — Bluebuck announcement covered by Axios.
2026-05-30pendingColossal has major announcements coming this year with a local government on productionizing cloning of endangered species
2026-01-01 → 2026-12-31pendingMexican government CONANP partnership advances vaquita biobank
How: Colossal Foundation + Vaquita Monitoring Group + CONANP issue joint progress release on vaquita biobanking program
Source: https://colossalfoundation.org/our-species/conf 60%
Notes: Partnership active; specific 2026 milestone TBD. Lamm's 'local government' likely Mexico-CONANP or analogous.
2029-01-31pendingColossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)
2070-06-17pendingInfinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 41%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z41.3%+1.7pp

Network propagation: 39.7% → 41.3%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z39.7%+3.3pp

Network propagation: 36.4% → 39.7%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z36.4%+6.2pp

Network propagation: 30.2% → 36.4%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z30.2%+10.2pp

Network propagation: 20.0% → 30.2%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z20.0%-25.0pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=5 inside=0.200 blend=0.200 LLR=-1.185 κ=0.69 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.32265680399768515,
  "kappa": 0.6875,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Ben Lamm",
  "total_llr": -2.027325540540822,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.19943541211900573,
  "bayes_factor": "3.3:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.4503057514730341,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 5,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.6875,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.278757261824363,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-07",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.6875,
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.278757261824363,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-16",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.48124999999999996,
      "label": "Viagen acquisition integration enables productionized cloning pipeline",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://screenrant.com/colossal-biosciences-acquires-viagen-animal-cloning/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.19513008327705408,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal publishes Viagen integration milestone showing scaled cloning throughput in conservation context"
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.37812500000000004,
      "label": "Government MoU or co-funded program announced for endangered-species cloning",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.15331649400339967,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "measurement_criterion": "Government entity (US/Mexico/Australia) announces formal funding or operational partnership with Colossal for endangered-species cloning at production scale"
    },
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.6875,
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.278757261824363,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-22",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.7741402372016204,
  "outside_weight": 0.2258597627983796,
  "posterior_prob": 0.20034271375121493,
  "posterior_logit": -1.3841537748725483,
  "predictor_brier": 0.00427,
  "inside_posterior": 0.20034271375121493,
  "blended_posterior": 0.20034271375121493,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -1.1847183627535427,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 3
}

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z45.0%-1.7pp

Network propagation: 46.7% → 45.0%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.7%-3.3pp

Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.7%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	15.0%	0.050	0.500	+0.019

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	245_024 Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from — Ben Lamm	34.2%	0.500	0.050	-0.102
prereq	233_015 Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids. — Peter Diamandis	37.6%	0.650	0.050	-0.072

Ticker exposure

24 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (19)

ABCL NTLA SDGR PACB RXRX RLAY DNA TXG TWST ABSI CRSP ILMN MDT ABT AZN BNTX GEHC GOOGL SMMNY

Adverse (4)

NVO FMS DVA PFE

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
killer	TK13	Biotech/Synbio Safety Event	—	—

Dependents (2)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	233_015	Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.	Biotech/Longevity	—
prereq	245_024	Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)	Biotech/Longevity	—

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "We have some big announcements this year with the with a with a local government on it.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "We have some big announcements this year with the with a with a local government on it.",
  "conv_cues": "this year; big announcements",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-07",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-16",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Viagen acquisition integration enables productionized cloning pipeline",
      "source": "https://screenrant.com/colossal-biosciences-acquires-viagen-animal-cloning/",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://screenrant.com/colossal-biosciences-acquires-viagen-animal-cloning/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal publishes Viagen integration milestone showing scaled cloning throughput in conservation context"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Government MoU or co-funded program announced for endangered-species cloning",
      "notes": "Lamm's exact language: 'with a local government on it' implies a named partnership.",
      "source": "Colossal Biosciences press releases, government press offices",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
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      "measurement_criterion": "Government entity (US/Mexico/Australia) announces formal funding or operational partnership with Colossal for endangered-species cloning at production scale"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal cloned 4 red wolves announced",
      "notes": "HIT — Red wolf cloning announced (though Association of Zoos and Aquariums was not informed).",
      "source": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/04/20/1135222/red-wolves-colossal-biosciences-clones/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
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      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/04/20/1135222/red-wolves-colossal-biosciences-clones/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-20",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-20",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal publicly announces successful cloning of red wolves, the most endangered wolf species"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "sourc
... (truncated)