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245_025predictionBiotech/Longevitysynbio

Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits

Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source

Prior probability
92.0%
Current probability
80.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
hit
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
1 / 2
Tickers exposed
24

Prediction text

Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits | two years ago, three years ago we were doing victory laps when we did a couple edits... when we were doing a couple edits, we were getting like 40% efficiency... Most people are doing 15. We're we're really smart... now we're doing uh hundreds of edits at 90% efficiency. | Mammoth 2028 target; thousands-of-edits threshold

Key catalyst: Mammoth 2028 target; thousands-of-edits threshold

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)"
two years ago, three years ago we were doing victory laps when we did a couple edits... when we were doing a couple edits, we were getting like 40% efficiency... Most people are doing 15. We're we're really smart... now we're doing uh hundreds of edits at 90% efficiency.

Resolution evidence

Status: hit

Colossal gene editing efficiency progression (15% industry → 40% → 90% at hundreds of edits) is published in Colossal papers 2024-2025.

Predictor: Ben Lamm

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0043
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 92%2026-04-292026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 80.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
No leading signals identified yet.

No upstream prereqs identified — milestones are derived from window quartiles only.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 80%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z80.2%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 81.4% → 80.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z81.4%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 83.5% → 81.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z83.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 87.0% → 83.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z87.0%-5.0pp
Network propagation: 92.0% → 87.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:17Z100.0%+16.5pp
resolution_terminal hit outcome=1.0 pre_resolution=0.835
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "hit",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 1,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 1,
  "delta_to_outcome": 0.16523,
  "inside_posterior": 0.83477,
  "validation_notes": "Colossal gene editing efficiency progression (15% industry → 40% → 90% at hundreds of edits) is published in Colossal papers 2024-2025.",
  "validation_status": "hit",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.83477,
  "resolution_evidence": "Colossal gene editing efficiency progression (15% industry → 40% → 90% at hundreds of edits) is published in Colossal papers 2024-2025.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK13
Biotech/Synbio Safety Event
15.0%0.0500.920-0.012

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq233_015
Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.Peter Diamandis
37.6%0.6500.050+0.152
prereq245_024
Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up fromBen Lamm
34.2%0.5000.050+0.066

Ticker exposure

24 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (19)

ABCLNTLASDGRPACBRXRXRLAYDNATXGTWSTABSICRSPILMNMDTABTAZNBNTXGEHCGOOGLSMMNY

Adverse (4)

NVOFMSDVAPFE

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK13Biotech/Synbio Safety Event

Dependents (2)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq233_015Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.Biotech/Longevity
prereq245_024Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)Biotech/Longevity

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29hitthesis_timeline_v1.0_importColossal gene editing efficiency progression (15% industry → 40% → 90% at hundreds of edits) is published in Colossal papers 2024-2025.

Linked documents (6)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.637arxivEditPropBench: Measuring Factual Edit Propagation in Scientific Manuscriptsmentionspending2026-05-03
0.623arxivTECCI: Tricky Edits of Collected and Curated Imagesmentionspending2026-05-31
0.597arxivAnswer Presence Drives RAG Rewriting Gainsmentionspending2026-06-04
0.578manifoldWill "Mnemonic portraits for 19,023 human genes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?18%mentionspending2026-05-29
0.534edgar_8kEditas Medicine, Inc. (EDIT) (CIK 0001650664)mentionspending2026-05-05
0.534edgar_8kEditas Medicine, Inc. (EDIT) (CIK 0001650664)mentionspending2026-05-14

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "90% efficiency at hundreds of edits",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "two years ago three years ago we were doing victory laps when we did a couple edits... now we're doing uh hundreds of edits at 90% efficiency.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "two years ago, three years ago we were doing victory laps when we did a couple edits... when we were doing a couple edits, we were getting like 40% efficiency... Most people are doing 15. We're we're really smart... now we're doing uh hundreds of edits at 90% efficiency.",
  "conv_cues": "now we're doing",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Current state (with implied continued improvement)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "245_025",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "245_024",
      "expected_date": "2029-01-31",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "233_015",
      "expected_date": "2070-06-17",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "sub_domain": "Longevity",
  "affiliation": "Colossal Biosciences",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 245,
  "granularity": "VAGUE",
  "resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.790345+00:00",
  "source_refs": "colossal.com/direwolf; colossal.com/colossal-biosciences-published-research; startupintros",
  "target_date": "2026-06-15",
  "display_date": "2026-04-29",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-07",
  "key_catalyst": "Mammoth 2028 target; thousands-of-edits threshold",
  "parse_method": "VAGUE midpoint 2026-2026",
  "domain_bucket": "Biotech",
  "episode_title": "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "appears_in_eps": "245",
  "futurist_phase": "Phase 1 (ongoing)",
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 4,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C10"
  ],
  "report_evidence": "CONFIRMED: Colossal gene editing efficiency risen to 90% at hundreds of edits (vs 15% industry / 40% prior internal). Dire wolf pups born Apr 2025 validated de-extinction capability. Lamm predicts multiplex editing scaling from hundreds to thousands.",
  "active_end_month": "2026-06",
  "recent_statement": "April 7 2026 Moonshots: Colossal gene editing 15%→40%→90% efficiency at hundreds of edits. UAE Biovault nine-figure partnership. Synbio market as large as AI (multi-trillion to $100T).",
  "months_from_today": 2,
  "probability_layer": "Higher (realized)",
  "active_start_month": "2026-06",
  "flag_nia_bracketed": false,
  "resolved_at_source": "validations_observed_at",
  "track_record_grade": "B-",
  "track_record_notes": "Colossal Biosciences; dire-wolf claim 2025 delivered; mammoth still pending 2028 target.",
  "flag_near_term_2027": true,
  "flag_high_conviction": true,
  "milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:50.125870+00:00",
  "reference_class_match": {
    "decision": "keyword_filtered",
    "computed_at": "2026-04-30T01:49:13.796883+00:00",
    "best_id_unfiltered": "fda_breakthrough_label",
    "best_similarity_unfiltered": 0.5456
  },
  "validation_status_raw": "CONFIRMED",
  "composite_signal_score": 36.8,
  "flag_priority_watchlist": true,
  "flag_timeline_near_term": true,
  "ps_displ