Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits
Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source
Prediction text
Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits | two years ago, three years ago we were doing victory laps when we did a couple edits... when we were doing a couple edits, we were getting like 40% efficiency... Most people are doing 15. We're we're really smart... now we're doing uh hundreds of edits at 90% efficiency. | Mammoth 2028 target; thousands-of-edits threshold
Key catalyst: Mammoth 2028 target; thousands-of-edits threshold
Verbatim quote
two years ago, three years ago we were doing victory laps when we did a couple edits... when we were doing a couple edits, we were getting like 40% efficiency... Most people are doing 15. We're we're really smart... now we're doing uh hundreds of edits at 90% efficiency.
Resolution evidence
Colossal gene editing efficiency progression (15% industry → 40% → 90% at hundreds of edits) is published in Colossal papers 2024-2025.
Predictor: Ben Lamm
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
No upstream prereqs identified — milestones are derived from window quartiles only.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.16523,
"inside_posterior": 0.83477,
"validation_notes": "Colossal gene editing efficiency progression (15% industry → 40% → 90% at hundreds of edits) is published in Colossal papers 2024-2025.",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.83477,
"resolution_evidence": "Colossal gene editing efficiency progression (15% industry → 40% → 90% at hundreds of edits) is published in Colossal papers 2024-2025.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | -0.012 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (19)
Adverse (4)
Prerequisites (1)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK13 | Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | — | — |
Dependents (2)
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Colossal gene editing efficiency progression (15% industry → 40% → 90% at hundreds of edits) is published in Colossal papers 2024-2025. |
Linked documents (6)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.637 | arxiv | EditPropBench: Measuring Factual Edit Propagation in Scientific Manuscripts | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-03 |
| 0.623 | arxiv | TECCI: Tricky Edits of Collected and Curated Images | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-31 |
| 0.597 | arxiv | Answer Presence Drives RAG Rewriting Gains | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-04 |
| 0.578 | manifold | Will "Mnemonic portraits for 19,023 human genes" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? | 18% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-29 |
| 0.534 | edgar_8k | Editas Medicine, Inc. (EDIT) (CIK 0001650664) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.534 | edgar_8k | Editas Medicine, Inc. (EDIT) (CIK 0001650664) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "90% efficiency at hundreds of edits",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "two years ago three years ago we were doing victory laps when we did a couple edits... now we're doing uh hundreds of edits at 90% efficiency.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "two years ago, three years ago we were doing victory laps when we did a couple edits... when we were doing a couple edits, we were getting like 40% efficiency... Most people are doing 15. We're we're really smart... now we're doing uh hundreds of edits at 90% efficiency.",
"conv_cues": "now we're doing",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "Current state (with implied continued improvement)",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Colossal gene editing efficiency has risen from 15% industry / 40% internal to 90% at hundreds of edits",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "245_025",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Colossal gene editing will reach thousands of edits (up from current hundreds)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": "245_024",
"expected_date": "2029-01-31",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "cascade",
"label": "Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": "233_015",
"expected_date": "2070-06-17",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"sub_domain": "Longevity",
"affiliation": "Colossal Biosciences",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 245,
"granularity": "VAGUE",
"resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.790345+00:00",
"source_refs": "colossal.com/direwolf; colossal.com/colossal-biosciences-published-research; startupintros",
"target_date": "2026-06-15",
"display_date": "2026-04-29",
"episode_date": "2026-04-07",
"key_catalyst": "Mammoth 2028 target; thousands-of-edits threshold",
"parse_method": "VAGUE midpoint 2026-2026",
"domain_bucket": "Biotech",
"episode_title": "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)",
"flag_repeated": false,
"in_5yr_window": true,
"appears_in_eps": "245",
"futurist_phase": "Phase 1 (ongoing)",
"is_macro_claim": false,
"total_mentions": 1,
"priority_weight": 4,
"ps_cluster_tags": [
"C10"
],
"report_evidence": "CONFIRMED: Colossal gene editing efficiency risen to 90% at hundreds of edits (vs 15% industry / 40% prior internal). Dire wolf pups born Apr 2025 validated de-extinction capability. Lamm predicts multiplex editing scaling from hundreds to thousands.",
"active_end_month": "2026-06",
"recent_statement": "April 7 2026 Moonshots: Colossal gene editing 15%→40%→90% efficiency at hundreds of edits. UAE Biovault nine-figure partnership. Synbio market as large as AI (multi-trillion to $100T).",
"months_from_today": 2,
"probability_layer": "Higher (realized)",
"active_start_month": "2026-06",
"flag_nia_bracketed": false,
"resolved_at_source": "validations_observed_at",
"track_record_grade": "B-",
"track_record_notes": "Colossal Biosciences; dire-wolf claim 2025 delivered; mammoth still pending 2028 target.",
"flag_near_term_2027": true,
"flag_high_conviction": true,
"milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:50.125870+00:00",
"reference_class_match": {
"decision": "keyword_filtered",
"computed_at": "2026-04-30T01:49:13.796883+00:00",
"best_id_unfiltered": "fda_breakthrough_label",
"best_similarity_unfiltered": 0.5456
},
"validation_status_raw": "CONFIRMED",
"composite_signal_score": 36.8,
"flag_priority_watchlist": true,
"flag_timeline_near_term": true,
"ps_displ