Predictions
35 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 1. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INF_008 | AI | IQ-growth-rate | Leading AI model intelligence has been improving by roughly 2.5 IQ points per… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | partial | 2024-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| ROB_002 | Labor/Jobs | code-99-percent-automated | 99% of code generation will be entirely automated by the end of 2025 — the el… | Kevin Weil | 5/5 | B | 40.0% | partial | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| SEM_002 | AI | AI-scaling | By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of col… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 4/5 | A | 75.0% | partial | 2025-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| SEM_006 | AI/Finance | economy | OpenAI will operate at a ~$9B deficit in 2025, driven almost entirely by adva… | Sam Altman | 4/5 | A | 75.0% | partial | 2025-01-01 – 2025-12-31 |
| SEM_040 | Finance/Crypto | crypto | Bitcoin treasury/business strategy allows companies to outpace rival enterpri… | Michael Saylor | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | partial | 2025-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| SEM_041 | Robotics | humanoids | At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by spe… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | B | 45.0% | partial | 2025-01-01 – 2025-11-30 |
| 231_031 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T val… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 239_033 | Robotics | Optimus | Optimus 3 will be by far the most advanced robot in the world | Elon Musk | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 244_020 | Auto/Transport | autonomous | Need for driver's licenses is going to collapse over the next few years | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 246_001 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX | SpaceX will IPO at $2 trillion valuation, raising $75 billion as largest IPO … | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 92.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 246_005 | Markets/Stocks | AI-scaling | OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will head toward $1 trillion valuations. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| 246_008 | Markets/Stocks | SpaceX | Elon Musk will merge SpaceX and XAI (with Tesla) within a year (Peter's view). | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2027-05-31 |
| AI_021 | Labor/Jobs | Great-Disemboweling | The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment … | Andrew Yang | 5/5 | B | 55.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| AI_028 | Crypto | Bitchat-BLE-mesh | Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks … | Jack Dorsey | 3/5 | C | 32.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| CMQ_036 | Semis/Memory | SK-Hynix-share | SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HB… | Morgan Stanley | 5/5 | A | 78.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| CYB_003 | AI | autonomous-agent-societies | Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their … | Alex Finn | 4/5 | C | 62.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| INF_004 | Geopolitics | China-ghost-DCs | China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilit… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 68.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| INF_005 | Labor/Jobs | blue-collar-boom | Skilled trade labor (welders, HVAC, electricians, plumbers, heavy-equipment o… | Jensen Huang | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| INF_029 | Macro/Economy | outcome-economics | Enterprise AI will shift the software economy from licensing to 'outcome-base… | Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail / Andrew Yang | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| INF_030 | AI | SMB-democratization | By 2026, generative AI will democratize analytical and operational capabiliti… | Dario Amodei | 4/5 | A | 75.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| INF_031 | AI | AI-company-risk | The biggest near-term AI risk to humanity is AI companies themselves acting w… | Dario Amodei | 5/5 | A | 70.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| INF_036 | AI | kinetic-edge-AI | AI will develop a 'kinetic' edge where capital assets (drones, autonomous veh… | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 65.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| INF_060 | Energy | post-lithium-batteries | Three new battery chemistries beyond lithium-ion will commercialize in 2026 —… | Elon Musk | 3/5 | B | 60.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| SEM_021 | AI/China | AI-scaling | Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chi… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 55.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| SEM_022 | AI/Architecture | AI-scaling | FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | A | 78.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| SEM_033 | AI/Physics | AI-scaling | AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics researc… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| SEM_037 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be abl… | Emad Mostaque | 5/5 | A | 60.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| SEM_045 | Economy/Org | economy | Traditional corporate structures will move rapidly toward AI-native operating… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | A | 65.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| SEM_049 | AI/Software | jobs | AI will soon fully automate software engineering, achieving massive cost redu… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 60.0% | partial | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| 236_033 | AI | AI-timing | Pie will grow very quickly as AI does work of millions of humans in hours | Andrew Yang | 5/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2026-04-30 – 2029-03-31 |
| 245_008 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-timing | More direwolves will be produced after initial Romulus and Remus | Ben Lamm | 4/5 | C | 50.0% | partial | 2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31 |
| 238_020 | AI | AI-timing | Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 232_003 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | AI will make workers 3x more productive, effectively reducing headcount by tw… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| 247_023 | AI | AI-scaling | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 72.0% | partial | 2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30 |
| INF_058 | Energy | decentralized-microgrids | The electrical grid topology will transition from centralized to highly decen… | Andrew Yang | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | partial | 2028-01-01 – 2035-10-31 |