Predictions
1,312 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 27. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240_014 | AI | AI-timing | Cost of reasoning models has dropped 1,000x in 16 months | Sam Altman | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2024-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| CMQ_013 | AI | OOM-scaling | A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — brid… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2024-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| CMQ_015 | AI | algorithmic-efficiency | Algorithmic efficiencies will deliver ~0.5 OOMs per year of additional effect… | Leopold Aschenbrenner | 5/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2024-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 240_056 | AI | AI-timing | Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% i… | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 244_016 | Auto/Transport | AI-timing | AV will grow very quickly but remains very small industry today | Dara Khosrowshahi | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| AUT_025 | AI | Deep-Utopia-crisis-of-meaning | Per Deep Utopia (2024): successful deployment of highly capable autonomous sy… | Nick Bostrom | 4/5 | C | 42.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2040-10-31 |
| CMQ_028 | Semis | NVIDIA-TAM | NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 tril… | Jensen Huang | 5/5 | A | 65.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| CMQ_050 | Robotics | fourth-wave-AI | Physical embodied AI represents the 'Fourth Wave' of AI development — project… | Industry analysts (synthesis) | 4/5 | B | 70.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| INF_040 | Markets/Stocks | DC-M&A | Massive financial conglomerates will execute historic mergers to control unde… | SoftBank | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2027-11-30 |
| INF_073 | AI | AI-smarter-than-humanity-2030 | AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smar… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | A | 30.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2031-08-31 |
| ROB_015 | Labor/Jobs | compressed-industrial-revolution-3yr | The 2025-2028 period is defined by massive automation/job displacement equiva… | Peter Diamandis | 5/5 | B | 42.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| SEM_038 | AI/AGI | superintelligence | Digital superintelligence (smarter than any human at anything) will arrive as… | Elon Musk | 4/5 | A | 12.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| SPC_028 | Labor/Jobs | corporate-collapse-1.1M-jobs | Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for t… | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2025-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| COD_BIO_001 | Biotech/Longevity | FDA-AI-drug-guidance | FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 | Codex Research Pack | 4/5 | — | 70.0% | pending | 2025-01-06 – 2026-12-31 |
| COD_BIO_002 | Biotech/Longevity | AI-drug-clinical | An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 | Codex Research Pack | 3/5 | — | 50.0% | pending | 2025-03-31 – 2027-12-31 |
| 229_003 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two … | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-11-30 |
| 229_007 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure's entire 2026 roadmap will be built around Helix 2, extending from log… | Brett Adcock | 5/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 229_008 | Biotech/Longevity | humanoids | By end of 2026, Figure's robot hardware will be capable of performing what su… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 229_020 | Robotics | humanoids | By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and d… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 229_022 | Robotics | humanoids | Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing e… | Brett Adcock | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 229_026 | Robotics | AI-scaling | By next year (2027), Figure expects to show real general purpose capability i… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-09-30 |
| 229_032 | AI | AI-timing | Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that re… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 229_037 | Energy | humanoids | With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europ… | Peter Diamandis | 3/5 | B | 30.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2032-11-30 |
| 229_043 | Robotics | AI-timing | Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad di… | Brett Adcock | 3/5 | C | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 230_001 | AI | AI-timing | A billion-dollar revenue company is already being run by an AI CEO (with huma… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 230_004 | AI | AI-scaling | We are past the edge of a new recursive self-improvement era where models rew… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 230_009 | Macro/Economy | economy | US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. | Elon Musk | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-12-31 |
| 230_015 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 230_025 | AI | AI-timing | The next 18 months to 2 years will set the rules for the next century. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-08-31 |
| 230_027 | AI | AI-timing | We are in an intelligence revolution — a war on scarce human attention — weap… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2035-11-30 |
| 230_028 | AI | AI-timing | Artisanal intelligence / the lone genius is dead — solutions will come from s… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-08-31 |
| 230_029 | AI | AI-timing | Cognition is becoming a commodity — intelligence will flow like oil. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| 230_031 | AI | AI-timing | We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across ma… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| 230_033 | AI | orbital-AI | Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → p… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2033-10-31 |
| 230_034 | Macro/Economy | abundance | Abundance will be achieved by 2035. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 230_040 | AI | AI-scaling | AI capability/accuracy will improve recursively; output-checking issues will … | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31 |
| 230_041 | AI | AI-scaling | Course corrections in organizations will accelerate from decades to years to … | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-10-31 |
| 230_046 | AI | AI-scaling | OpenAI's Noam Brown has only ~3 months of future model access internally — dr… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 231_009 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | India will be the rising giant for the next 20-30 years, with Africa following. | Salim Ismail | 4/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2056-10-31 |
| 231_012 | AI | AI-timing | Within 6 months to a year physics problems will be massively addressed by AI. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-08-31 |
| 231_014 | AI | AI-scaling | Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 231_019 | Other | AI-timing | Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in n… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 3/5 | C | 45.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 231_037 | Space | SpaceX | Dyson swarm launchers will not be a SpaceX singleton; many orgs will launch t… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | A | 62.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| 231_041 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Radical massive job destruction is imminent; new creation will lag, causing d… | Dave Blundin | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-12-31 |
| 231_044 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Universal High Income programs need to be figured out in next 2-3 years. | Peter Diamandis | 4/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2029-12-31 |
| 231_046 | AI | AI-timing | Over the next 10 years humanity will live through top 50 science fiction plot… | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2036-10-31 |
| 231_047 | AI | AI-timing | Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. | Alex Wissner-Gross | 4/5 | B | 50.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |
| 231_053 | Labor/Jobs | AI-scaling | Within a couple months, young AI-native hires will be able to do exactly what… | Dave Blundin | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 232_013 | AI | AI-timing | Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 202… | Jimmy Ba | 4/5 | D | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 232_015 | AI | AI-scaling | AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the… | Dave Blundin | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-09-30 |