Predictions
68 of 1,607 predictions match — page 1 of 2. Click any row to view its detail.
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Predictor
| ID | Domain | Topic | Title | Predictor | Conv | SQ | Prior | Status | Window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 241_005 | AI | AI-scaling | 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 241_006 | AI | AI-timing | Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 241_016 | Energy | AI-timing | 92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030 | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 241_017 | Energy | AI-timing | Equivalent of ~60 nuclear plants needed by 2030 but essentially zero being built | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 241_021 | Markets/Stocks | $100T | America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2031-09-30 |
| 241_022 | Macro/Economy | economy | Data center buildout is ~1% of US GDP growth | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-12-31 |
| 241_031 | AI | AI-timing | Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31 |
| 241_046 | AI | AI-timing | Gemini 3 is probably the broadest of the non-Chinese AI systems | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 241_050 | AI | autonomous | AI LLMs can run for hours (e.g., dinner to 4am) autonomously creating new sol… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 241_052 | Energy | AI-timing | Standard AI data centers being built at 400 MW scale, half-mile long | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-01-01 – 2026-11-30 |
| 241_053 | AI | NVIDIA | AI chips are 2 kilowatts each - requires water cooling | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | B | 65.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30 |
| 241_061 | Robotics | humanoids | China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (no… | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| 241_062 | AI | AI-timing | Best AI labs will need to be controlled by humans (at the moment) | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2026-08-31 |
| AUT_015 | Defense | cheap-satellites-loitering-munitions | Complete obsolescence of traditional military procurement — national security… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | A | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2031-11-30 |
| CMQ_019 | Geopolitics | AI-safety-governance | Physical intervention (literally unplugging data centers) may be required onc… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | A | 20.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2030-10-31 |
| CYB_024 | Defense | ChatGPT-moment-genetic-engineering | The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively c… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-09-30 |
| IND_027 | Labor/Jobs | reasoning-boom-20-80-human-AI-split | Ongoing 'reasoning boom' where scientific software development operates on a … | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | B | 42.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| INF_021 | Energy | steel-mills-climate-deferral | AI data centers are the 'steel mills of the 21st century' — humanity will mis… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | B | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2030-11-30 |
| ROB_022 | Defense | physical-AI-national-security | Maintaining technological competitiveness in Physical AI is an acute, existen… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | A | 80.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2032-09-30 |
| SEM_035 | AI/Cognition | AI-scaling | World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~ea… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | A | 55.0% | pending | 2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31 |
| SEM_036 | AI/Cognition | jobs | World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | A | 72.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31 |
| SPC_021 | Space | Relativity-AI-rocket-manufacturing | Relativity Space will revolutionize manufacturing of atmospheric and orbital … | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | B | 55.0% | in_progress | 2026-01-01 – 2029-10-31 |
| 238_007 | AI | AI-scaling | There will be no more than ~10 foundation model labs globally, but thousands … | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2031-11-30 |
| 238_048 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Sc… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2032-11-30 |
| 241_002 | Robotics | humanoids | Robots will take longer than digital/software systems to have impact | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30 |
| 232_018 | AI | AI-timing | We are living through a moment that will be in history for thousands of years… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_004 | AI | AI-timing | AI progress is not stoppable or controllable by any government, individual, o… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 92.0% | hit | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_009 | Labor/Jobs | AI-timing | Top programmers will become MORE valuable, not less, due to AI | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_010 | Macro/Economy | AI-timing | Industry will consolidate into small number of very large companies and very … | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_012 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Jobs impact from AI will occur at some point | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_013 | AI | AI-scaling | Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_015 | Markets/Stocks | NVIDIA | Google and Nvidia will both do incredibly well due to TPU/GPU positioning | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_018 | Energy | AI-timing | Algorithms becoming more efficient will not reduce power demand - it will inc… | Eric Schmidt | 5/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_019 | AI | AI-timing | AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_020 | Energy | AI-timing | 1 GW of power = ~$50 billion in hardware/software/data centers | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_024 | Space | AI-timing | Heat dissipation and radiation issues in space data centers will be addressed | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_026 | Space | AI-timing | Space data center technology is understood and largely figured out | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 65.0% | in_progress | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_027 | Robotics | humanoids | China will win low-end robotic hardware race | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_028 | Geopolitics | humanoids | US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in… | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_030 | Labor/Jobs | jobs | Low-skilled labor of any kind gets swept up by automation | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_032 | AI | AI-timing | World can accommodate ~10 frontier AI companies at scale | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_033 | AI | AI-timing | Few frontier AI companies will be in China | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_034 | AI | AI-timing | One or two frontier AI companies in Europe | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_035 | AI | AI-timing | Maybe one frontier AI company in India | Eric Schmidt | 2/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_036 | AI | AI-timing | No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_037 | AI | AI-timing | Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | B | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_038 | AI | AGI | Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centered | Eric Schmidt | 4/5 | C | 60.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_040 | AI | AI-timing | A Chernobyl-like AI tragedy is likely to happen, will awaken world to act | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_041 | AI | AI-timing | Biological and nuclear attacks spawned by AI are real dangers | Eric Schmidt | 3/5 | C | 55.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |
| 241_042 | Geopolitics | AI-timing | Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance | Eric Schmidt | 2/5 | D | 50.0% | pending | 2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30 |