Ongoing 'reasoning boom' where scientific software development operates on a '20-80 human split' — AI handles 80% of cognitive labor, humans handle 20%, driving recursive self-improvement timelines toward the Singularity; fundamental inversion from hum...

Ongoing 'reasoning boom' where scientific software development operates on a '20-80 human split' — AI handles 80% of cognitive labor, humans handle 20%, driving recursive self-improvement timelines toward the Singularity; fundamental inversion from human-dominant to AI-dominant cognitive production. | Next major frontier-lab productivity disclosure

Key catalyst: Next major frontier-lab productivity disclosure

Watch events: Enterprise AI-code-commit ratios; productivity metrics at frontier labs

Frontier-lab internal coding productivity ratios trending toward AI-majority; 80% threshold aspirational in mainstream enterprise.

No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

Beneficiaries (1)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "20/80 human-AI split",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Other",
  "context": "Fourth Schmidt entry (241_016 92GW, ROB_022 Physical AI national security, AUT_015 cheap satellites). Specific 20/80 ratio framing distinct from peers.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "conv_cues": "specific split ratio; coined framing",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026-2028",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "≥80% of US workers exposed to AI on ≥10% of tasks",
      "notes": "HIT — academic literature confirms 80% exposure ratio Schmidt references. Anchors '80-20' framing.",
      "source": "https://laweconcenter.org/resources/ai-productivity-and-labor-markets-a-review-of-the-empirical-evidence/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://laweconcenter.org/resources/ai-productivity-and-labor-markets-a-review-of-the-empirical-evidence/",
      "expected_date": "2025-09-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2025-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Published BLS / academic study finds ~80% of US workers have ≥10% of tasks exposed to AI capabilities"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Schmidt predicts AI 'thinking for itself' within 4 years",
      "notes": "HIT — direct Schmidt statement on recursive self-improvement timeline.",
      "source": "https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2025/12/2/google-ceo-ai-self-improvement/ — Harvard talk Dec 2 2025",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2025/12/2/google-ceo-ai-self-improvement/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-02",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Schmidt publicly predicts AI recursive self-improvement timeline of ≤4 years at major venue (Harvard, Stanford, etc.)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Eric Schmidt projects 30% annual productivity gain from AI",
      "source": "https://time.com/7339638/eric-schmidt-ai/ — Schmidt cites 30% productivity model",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://time.com/7339638/eric-schmidt-ai/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-04-30",
        "from": "2025-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Schmidt publicly cites estimates of 30% annual productivity increase tied to AI cognitive automation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier lab discloses ≥50% AI-authored code in production",
      "source": "Frontier-lab quarterly disclosures, Schmidt commentary on internal automation",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://thinkinleverage.com/how-eric-schmidt-sees-ai-automating-corporate-backbones-next/",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, or Meta publicly discloses ≥50% of code in production written or reviewed by AI"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-19",
      "observed_date": null
    },
  
... (truncated)