← Cockpit
245_033predictionBiotech/Longevitysynbio

Colossal will work to reintroduce all de-extincted species back into their environments

Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
44.3%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2030-12-31
Edges in / out
1 / 1
Tickers exposed
24

Prediction text

Colossal will work to reintroduce all de-extincted species back into their environments | all the species that we're working on, we want to work to re reintroduce

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)"
all the species that we're working on, we want to work to re reintroduce

Predictor: Ben Lamm

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0043
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 44.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 6 pending
  1. 2026-04-30hitColossal expands de-extinction portfolio to 6 species (bluebuck added)
    How: Colossal Biosciences publicly announces a sixth species (bluebuck) joining the de-extinction roster, with conservation/rewilding partners named
    Source: Axios — Colossal Biosciences reveals new species for 'de-extinction': the bluebuck (April 30, 2026)conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Colossal added bluebuck as 6th species (alongside woolly mammoth, dodo, thylacine, moa, dire wolf). Endangered Wildlife Trust + ACS named as rewilding partners — directly supports the reintroduction commitment in 245_033.
  2. 2026-04-30hitEndangered Wildlife Trust + ACS partnership for South Africa rewilding announced
    How: Colossal publicly names third-party rewilding consultants (Endangered Wildlife Trust + Advanced Conservation Strategies) for habitat restoration and reintroduction planning of de-extincted species
    Source: PRNewswire — Colossal Biosciences Expands De-extinction Portfolio with Iconic Bluebuckconf 95%
    Notes: HIT — formal third-party rewilding partner structure is direct evidence of intent to reintroduce, not just resurrect.
  3. 2027-02-10pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  4. 2027-11-24pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFirst woolly mammoth birth occurs
    How: Colossal publicly confirms birth of first viable woolly mammoth calf via Asian elephant surrogate, per their stated 2028 target
    Source: Wikipedia / Colossal corporate timeline — mammoth project remains on track for first birth in 2028conf 45%
    Notes: Birth of first proxy specimen is the gating event before any reintroduction work can begin.
  6. 2028-09-06pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  7. 2027-06-01 → 2029-12-31pendingRegulatory approval secured for first reintroduction site
    How: Government regulator (South Africa, Australia, US) issues formal release/import permit for de-extincted species in designated rewilding zone
    Source: Anticipated — Endangered Wildlife Trust, IUCN, USFWS coordinationconf 40%
    Notes: Cascade — regulatory approval is the critical bottleneck distinguishing 'work to reintroduce' (claim met) from 'merely create captive specimens'.
  8. 2028-01-01 → 2030-06-30pendingFirst de-extincted species pilot release into managed habitat
    How: Colossal or partner organization releases at least one bluebuck, dodo, thylacine, or dire wolf proxy into a controlled rewilding preserve (private or government-sanctioned)
    Source: Anticipated — Colossal corporate roadmap, EWT/ACS announcementsconf 35%
    Notes: First actual reintroduction event — required for the 245_033 claim ('work to reintroduce') to fire affirmatively. Likely earliest with bluebuck or thylacine since neither requires gestation in elephant surrogate.

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 44%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z44.3%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 45.4% → 44.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z45.4%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 47.4% → 45.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z47.4%-4.1pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 47.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
legacy v12026-04-30T19:17:54Z51.5%+6.5pp
intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937 bayesian_v2 inside=0.515 blend=0.515 LLR=0.261 κ=0.64 no_blend
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z45.0%-1.7pp
Network propagation: 46.7% → 45.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.7%-3.3pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK13
Biotech/Synbio Safety Event
15.0%0.0500.500-0.011

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

24 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (19)

ABCLNTLASDGRPACBRXRXRLAYDNATXGTWSTABSICRSPILMNMDTABTAZNBNTXGEHCGOOGLSMMNY

Adverse (4)

NVOFMSDVAPFE

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK13Biotech/Synbio Safety Event

Dependents (1)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
correlateCOD_BIO_005Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028Biotech/Longevity

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.601github_releasemeta-llama/llama-models v0.1.3mentionspending2025-02-14
0.600github_releasefacebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.5mentionspending2023-07-29
0.571github_releasefacebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.3.4mentionspending2026-05-07
0.556github_releasefacebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.2_rc1mentionspending2022-06-06
0.550codex_research_packColossal - Woolly Mouse Mammoth gene editing validates de-extinction pipelinecorroboratespending2025-03-04
0.550codex_research_packColossal - Dire Wolf projectcorroboratespending2025-04-07
0.550codex_research_packAxios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction targetcorroboratespending2026-04-30
0.547github_releasefacebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.7-rc1mentionspending2021-01-25
0.534github_releasefacebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.2_rc1mentionspending2022-06-06
0.530github_releasefacebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.3_rc1mentionspending2022-11-28

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "Subject to government permissions (e.g., Australia)",
  "context": "we were meeting with the Australian government about reintroducing the Tasmanian tiger because all the species that we're working on, we want to work to re reintroduce",
  "verbatim": "all the species that we're working on, we want to work to re reintroduce",
  "conv_cues": "we want to work to reintroduce",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal expands de-extinction portfolio to 6 species (bluebuck added)",
      "notes": "HIT — Colossal added bluebuck as 6th species (alongside woolly mammoth, dodo, thylacine, moa, dire wolf). Endangered Wildlife Trust + ACS named as rewilding partners — directly supports the reintroduction commitment in 245_033.",
      "source": "Axios — Colossal Biosciences reveals new species for 'de-extinction': the bluebuck (April 30, 2026)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/colossal-biosciences-species-extinction-bluebuck",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal Biosciences publicly announces a sixth species (bluebuck) joining the de-extinction roster, with conservation/rewilding partners named"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Endangered Wildlife Trust + ACS partnership for South Africa rewilding announced",
      "notes": "HIT — formal third-party rewilding partner structure is direct evidence of intent to reintroduce, not just resurrect.",
      "source": "PRNewswire — Colossal Biosciences Expands De-extinction Portfolio with Iconic Bluebuck",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/colossal-biosciences-expands-de-extinction-portfolio-with-iconic-bluebuck-302759083.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal publicly names third-party rewilding consultants (Endangered Wildlife Trust + Advanced Conservation Strategies) for habitat restoration and reintroduction planning of de-extincted species"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-02-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-11-24",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First woolly mammoth birth occurs",
      "notes": "Birth of first proxy specimen is the gating event before any reintroduction work can begin.",
      "source": "Wikipedia / Colossal corporate timeline — mammoth project remains on track for first birth in 2028",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Biosciences",
      "expected_date": "2028-03-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2027-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal publicly confirms birth of first viable woolly mammoth calf via Asian elephant surrogate, per their stated 2028 target"
    },
    {
      "kind": "qu
... (truncated)