Colossal will work to reintroduce all de-extincted species back into their environments
Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source
Prediction text
Colossal will work to reintroduce all de-extincted species back into their environments | all the species that we're working on, we want to work to re reintroduce
Verbatim quote
all the species that we're working on, we want to work to re reintroduce
Predictor: Ben Lamm
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-30hitColossal expands de-extinction portfolio to 6 species (bluebuck added)How: Colossal Biosciences publicly announces a sixth species (bluebuck) joining the de-extinction roster, with conservation/rewilding partners namedSource: Axios — Colossal Biosciences reveals new species for 'de-extinction': the bluebuck (April 30, 2026)conf 99%Notes: HIT — Colossal added bluebuck as 6th species (alongside woolly mammoth, dodo, thylacine, moa, dire wolf). Endangered Wildlife Trust + ACS named as rewilding partners — directly supports the reintroduction commitment in 245_033.
- 2026-04-30hitEndangered Wildlife Trust + ACS partnership for South Africa rewilding announcedHow: Colossal publicly names third-party rewilding consultants (Endangered Wildlife Trust + Advanced Conservation Strategies) for habitat restoration and reintroduction planning of de-extincted speciesSource: PRNewswire — Colossal Biosciences Expands De-extinction Portfolio with Iconic Bluebuckconf 95%Notes: HIT — formal third-party rewilding partner structure is direct evidence of intent to reintroduce, not just resurrect.
- 2027-02-10pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2027-11-24pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFirst woolly mammoth birth occursHow: Colossal publicly confirms birth of first viable woolly mammoth calf via Asian elephant surrogate, per their stated 2028 targetSource: Wikipedia / Colossal corporate timeline — mammoth project remains on track for first birth in 2028conf 45%Notes: Birth of first proxy specimen is the gating event before any reintroduction work can begin.
- 2028-09-06pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2027-06-01 → 2029-12-31pendingRegulatory approval secured for first reintroduction siteHow: Government regulator (South Africa, Australia, US) issues formal release/import permit for de-extincted species in designated rewilding zoneSource: Anticipated — Endangered Wildlife Trust, IUCN, USFWS coordinationconf 40%Notes: Cascade — regulatory approval is the critical bottleneck distinguishing 'work to reintroduce' (claim met) from 'merely create captive specimens'.
- 2028-01-01 → 2030-06-30pendingFirst de-extincted species pilot release into managed habitatHow: Colossal or partner organization releases at least one bluebuck, dodo, thylacine, or dire wolf proxy into a controlled rewilding preserve (private or government-sanctioned)Source: Anticipated — Colossal corporate roadmap, EWT/ACS announcementsconf 35%Notes: First actual reintroduction event — required for the 245_033 claim ('work to reintroduce') to fire affirmatively. Likely earliest with bluebuck or thylacine since neither requires gestation in elephant surrogate.
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | -0.011 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (19)
Adverse (4)
Prerequisites (1)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK13 | Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | — | — |
Dependents (1)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| correlate | COD_BIO_005 | Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 | Biotech/Longevity | — |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.601 | github_release | meta-llama/llama-models v0.1.3 | — | mentions | pending | 2025-02-14 |
| 0.600 | github_release | facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.5 | — | mentions | pending | 2023-07-29 |
| 0.571 | github_release | facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.3.4 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-07 |
| 0.556 | github_release | facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.2_rc1 | — | mentions | pending | 2022-06-06 |
| 0.550 | codex_research_pack | Colossal - Woolly Mouse Mammoth gene editing validates de-extinction pipeline | — | corroborates | pending | 2025-03-04 |
| 0.550 | codex_research_pack | Colossal - Dire Wolf project | — | corroborates | pending | 2025-04-07 |
| 0.550 | codex_research_pack | Axios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction target | — | corroborates | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.547 | github_release | facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.7-rc1 | — | mentions | pending | 2021-01-25 |
| 0.534 | github_release | facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.2_rc1 | — | mentions | pending | 2022-06-06 |
| 0.530 | github_release | facebookresearch/habitat-sim v0.2.3_rc1 | — | mentions | pending | 2022-11-28 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
"mode": "ASPIRATION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"caveats": "Subject to government permissions (e.g., Australia)",
"context": "we were meeting with the Australian government about reintroducing the Tasmanian tiger because all the species that we're working on, we want to work to re reintroduce",
"verbatim": "all the species that we're working on, we want to work to re reintroduce",
"conv_cues": "we want to work to reintroduce",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Future",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Colossal expands de-extinction portfolio to 6 species (bluebuck added)",
"notes": "HIT — Colossal added bluebuck as 6th species (alongside woolly mammoth, dodo, thylacine, moa, dire wolf). Endangered Wildlife Trust + ACS named as rewilding partners — directly supports the reintroduction commitment in 245_033.",
"source": "Axios — Colossal Biosciences reveals new species for 'de-extinction': the bluebuck (April 30, 2026)",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/colossal-biosciences-species-extinction-bluebuck",
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"observed_date": "2026-04-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Colossal Biosciences publicly announces a sixth species (bluebuck) joining the de-extinction roster, with conservation/rewilding partners named"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Endangered Wildlife Trust + ACS partnership for South Africa rewilding announced",
"notes": "HIT — formal third-party rewilding partner structure is direct evidence of intent to reintroduce, not just resurrect.",
"source": "PRNewswire — Colossal Biosciences Expands De-extinction Portfolio with Iconic Bluebuck",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/colossal-biosciences-expands-de-extinction-portfolio-with-iconic-bluebuck-302759083.html",
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"observed_date": "2026-04-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Colossal publicly names third-party rewilding consultants (Endangered Wildlife Trust + Advanced Conservation Strategies) for habitat restoration and reintroduction planning of de-extincted species"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2027-02-10",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2027-11-24",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First woolly mammoth birth occurs",
"notes": "Birth of first proxy specimen is the gating event before any reintroduction work can begin.",
"source": "Wikipedia / Colossal corporate timeline — mammoth project remains on track for first birth in 2028",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.45,
"source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Biosciences",
"expected_date": "2028-03-16",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-12-31",
"from": "2027-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Colossal publicly confirms birth of first viable woolly mammoth calf via Asian elephant surrogate, per their stated 2028 target"
},
{
"kind": "qu
... (truncated)