COD_BIO_005predictionBiotech/Longevitydeextinction-platform

Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

Prior probability

40.0%

Current probability

46.6%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

3/5

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31

Edges in / out

1 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.850

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from Codex Research Pack is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

2 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 46.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 6 pending

2026-04-30hitColossal announces Bluebuck as 6th de-extinction species (April 30, 2026 — within research window)
How: CNN, Axios, Time, BioSpace, PRNewswire confirm Colossal April 30 2026 Bluebuck announcement; project two years in, in genome-editing phase, with embryo + roan-surrogate transfer the next step
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 99%
2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingThylacine scientific-progress milestone announcement (per Colossal commitment 'before end of year')
How: Colossal publishes thylacine genome-editing or dasyurid-egg nuclear-transfer scientific update before EOY 2026
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
2026-10-20pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
2027-04-11pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
2027-10-01pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2027-01-01 → 2028-09-30pendingBluebuck embryo creation + roan-surrogate transfer (resolution criterion satisfaction)
How: Colossal publicly documents Bluebuck embryo creation and embryo-transfer into roan surrogate, with gestation tracker; satisfies pack-defined hit criterion
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
2027-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingEither Bluebuck OR Thylacine reaches active embryo-transfer pipeline before window close
How: By 2028-12-31, either Bluebuck or Thylacine project reaches embryo-transfer phase per Colossal disclosure (not just genome analysis); satisfies pack hit criterion
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
2028-03-23pendingColossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028
2028-09-01 → 2029-12-31pendingLive Bluebuck calf born — full de-extinction success (cascade beyond pack window)
How: First live Bluebuck calf birth from roan surrogate disclosed by Colossal; gestation ~9 months from successful transfer
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 30%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 47%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z46.6%+2.0pp

Network propagation: 44.5% → 46.6%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z44.5%+4.5pp

Network propagation: 40.0% → 44.5%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

Ticker exposure

2 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (2)

DNA TWST

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
correlate	245_033	Colossal will work to reintroduce all de-extincted species back into their environments	Biotech/Longevity	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.700	codex_research_pack	Colossal - Dire Wolf project	—	mentions	pending	2025-04-07
0.700	codex_research_pack	Axios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction target	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.630	manifold	Will Flygon get a mega evolution by the end of 2028?	34%	mentions	pending	2026-05-12
0.624	manifold	New fish species	69%	mentions	pending	2026-05-19
0.624	github_release	facebookresearch/HolisticTraceAnalysis v0.6.0	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-21
0.613	github_release	huggingface/transformers v4.56.1	—	mentions	pending	2025-09-04
0.607	manifold	How many 10s of thousands of species be on OneZoom at the end of this year?	66%	mentions	pending	2026-06-02
0.607	github_release	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.1.7	—	mentions	pending	2021-02-17
0.591	github_release	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.2.3	—	mentions	pending	2022-12-08
0.586	github_release	meta-llama/llama-api-python v0.4.0	—	mentions	pending	2025-09-17

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "pack_id": "codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal announces Bluebuck as 6th de-extinction species (April 30, 2026 — within research window)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/colossal-biosciences-species-extinction-bluebuck",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "CNN, Axios, Time, BioSpace, PRNewswire confirm Colossal April 30 2026 Bluebuck announcement; project two years in, in genome-editing phase, with embryo + roan-surrogate transfer the next step"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Thylacine scientific-progress milestone announcement (per Colossal commitment 'before end of year')",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://azbigmedia.com/business/bioscience-industry/beyond-the-dire-wolf-colossal-biosciences-vision-for-the-future-of-de-extinction/",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal publishes thylacine genome-editing or dasyurid-egg nuclear-transfer scientific update before EOY 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-04-11",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-10-01",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Bluebuck embryo creation + roan-surrogate transfer (resolution criterion satisfaction)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://time.com/article/2026/04/29/colossal-biosciences-bluebuck/",
      "expected_date": "2027-11-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-09-30",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal publicly documents Bluebuck embryo creation and embryo-transfer into roan surrogate, with gestation tracker; satisfies pack-defined hit criterion"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Either Bluebuck OR Thylacine reaches active embryo-transfer pipeline before window close",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.biospace.com/press-releases/colossal-biosciences-expands-de-extinction-portfolio-with-iconic-bluebuck",
      "expected_date": "2028-03-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2027-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "By 2028-12-31, either Bluebuck or Thylacine project reaches embryo-transfer phase per Colossal disclosure (not just genome analysis); satisfies pack hit criterion"
    },
    {
      "kind
... (truncated)