Colossal will bring back the woolly mammoth
Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source
Prediction text
Colossal will bring back the woolly mammoth | publicly we've announced uh the woolly mammoth, the Tasmanian tiger, the dodo, and the moa. And then we've we've made the direwolves. Uh we we will have more direwolves coming which we have announced.
Verbatim quote
publicly we've announced uh the woolly mammoth, the Tasmanian tiger, the dodo, and the moa. And then we've we've made the direwolves. Uh we we will have more direwolves coming which we have announced.
Predictor: Ben Lamm
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
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Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-15hitColossal raises additional $200M+ on path to mammoth-by-2028How: Colossal Biosciences announces $200M+ funding round explicitly tied to woolly mammoth de-extinction roadmapSource: https://www.jpost.com/science/science-around-the-world/article-838315 — Colossal secures $200M for mammoth-by-2028conf 95%
- 2026-02-13hitFounder publicly reaffirms 2028 mammoth target at major venueHow: Ben Lamm (Colossal CEO) publicly states de-extinction is 'most exciting thing in 2026' at major conference (e.g., World Government Summit)Source: https://www.euronews.com/2026/02/13/bringing-back-extinct-species-is-the-most-exciting-thing-in-2026-says-colossal-founder-at- — WGS Feb 2026conf 95%
- 2026-04-30hitSixth de-extinction species (bluebuck) added to portfolioHow: Colossal adds new species to public de-extinction portfolio (validates that pipeline beyond mammoth/dire wolf is real)Source: https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/colossal-biosciences-species-extinction-bluebuckconf 99%
- 2026-10-15pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFirst successful mammoth-edited Asian elephant embryo transferHow: Colossal announces first viable embryo transfer using mammoth-CRISPR-edited Asian elephant cellsSource: https://www.denofgeek.com/culture/colossal-woolly-mammoth-on-track-2028-de-extinction-evolves/ — embryo-transfer next stageconf 55%
- 2027-04-01pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2027-09-16pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2028-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFirst viable mammoth-trait Asian elephant calf birth (22-month gestation)How: Live birth of Asian elephant calf carrying CRISPR-edited mammoth traits — Colossal's stated 2028 targetSource: Colossal public roadmap, NPR coverage March 2026conf 45%Notes: Cascade — fulfills the prediction directly. 22-month gestation means embryo transfer must succeed by early 2027 to hit 2028 birth.
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | -0.017 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | COD_BIO_003 Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant — Codex Research Pack | 19.5% | 0.350 | 0.050 | -0.013 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (19)
Adverse (4)
Prerequisites (1)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK13 | Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | — | — |
Dependents (1)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | COD_BIO_003 | Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant surrogate by end 2027 | Biotech/Longevity | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2028-12-31 | Colossal first mammoth-like calf public target | pending |
Linked documents (7)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.750 | codex_research_pack | Colossal - Dire Wolf project | — | corroborates | pending | 2025-04-07 |
| 0.750 | codex_research_pack | Axios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction target | — | corroborates | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.750 | codex_research_pack | Colossal - Woolly Mouse Mammoth gene editing validates de-extinction pipeline | — | corroborates | pending | 2025-03-04 |
| 0.598 | github_release | meta-llama/llama-models v0.1.3 | — | mentions | pending | 2025-02-14 |
| 0.596 | github_release | meta-llama/llama-cookbook v0.0.4 | — | mentions | pending | 2024-09-25 |
| 0.588 | github_release | meta-llama/llama-cookbook v0.0.3 | — | mentions | pending | 2024-07-23 |
| 0.585 | polymarket | Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | 1% | mentions | pending | 2025-06-19 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "Woolly mammoth, Tasmanian tiger, dodo, moa",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "publicly we've announced uh the woolly mammoth, the Tasmanian tiger, the dodo, and the moa.",
"verbatim": "publicly we've announced uh the woolly mammoth, the Tasmanian tiger, the dodo, and the moa. And then we've we've made the direwolves. Uh we we will have more direwolves coming which we have announced.",
"conv_cues": "publicly announced",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Future",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Colossal raises additional $200M+ on path to mammoth-by-2028",
"source": "https://www.jpost.com/science/science-around-the-world/article-838315 — Colossal secures $200M for mammoth-by-2028",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.jpost.com/science/science-around-the-world/article-838315",
"expected_date": "2026-01-15",
"observed_date": "2026-01-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Colossal Biosciences announces $200M+ funding round explicitly tied to woolly mammoth de-extinction roadmap"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Founder publicly reaffirms 2028 mammoth target at major venue",
"source": "https://www.euronews.com/2026/02/13/bringing-back-extinct-species-is-the-most-exciting-thing-in-2026-says-colossal-founder-at- — WGS Feb 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.euronews.com/2026/02/13/bringing-back-extinct-species-is-the-most-exciting-thing-in-2026-says-colossal-founder-at-",
"expected_date": "2026-02-13",
"observed_date": "2026-02-13",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Ben Lamm (Colossal CEO) publicly states de-extinction is 'most exciting thing in 2026' at major conference (e.g., World Government Summit)"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Sixth de-extinction species (bluebuck) added to portfolio",
"source": "https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/colossal-biosciences-species-extinction-bluebuck",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/colossal-biosciences-species-extinction-bluebuck",
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"observed_date": "2026-04-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Colossal adds new species to public de-extinction portfolio (validates that pipeline beyond mammoth/dire wolf is real)"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-10-15",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First successful mammoth-edited Asian elephant embryo transfer",
"source": "https://www.denofgeek.com/culture/colossal-woolly-mammoth-on-track-2028-de-extinction-evolves/ — embryo-transfer next stage",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://www.denofgeek.com/culture/colossal-woolly-mammoth-on-track-2028-de-extinction-evolves/",
"expected_date": "2026-12-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-06-30",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Colossal announces first viable embryo transfer using mammoth-CRISPR-edited Asian elephant cells"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_ch
... (truncated)