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245_007predictionBiotech/Longevitysynbio

Colossal will bring back the woolly mammoth

Predictor: Ben Lamm · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
44.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2028-12-31
Edges in / out
1 / 1
Tickers exposed
24

Prediction text

Colossal will bring back the woolly mammoth | publicly we've announced uh the woolly mammoth, the Tasmanian tiger, the dodo, and the moa. And then we've we've made the direwolves. Uh we we will have more direwolves coming which we have announced.

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)"
publicly we've announced uh the woolly mammoth, the Tasmanian tiger, the dodo, and the moa. And then we've we've made the direwolves. Uh we we will have more direwolves coming which we have announced.

Predictor: Ben Lamm

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0043
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Ben Lamm is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 44.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 4 pending
  1. 2026-01-15hitColossal raises additional $200M+ on path to mammoth-by-2028
    How: Colossal Biosciences announces $200M+ funding round explicitly tied to woolly mammoth de-extinction roadmap
    Source: https://www.jpost.com/science/science-around-the-world/article-838315 — Colossal secures $200M for mammoth-by-2028conf 95%
  2. 2026-02-13hitFounder publicly reaffirms 2028 mammoth target at major venue
    How: Ben Lamm (Colossal CEO) publicly states de-extinction is 'most exciting thing in 2026' at major conference (e.g., World Government Summit)
    Source: https://www.euronews.com/2026/02/13/bringing-back-extinct-species-is-the-most-exciting-thing-in-2026-says-colossal-founder-at- — WGS Feb 2026conf 95%
  3. 2026-04-30hitSixth de-extinction species (bluebuck) added to portfolio
    How: Colossal adds new species to public de-extinction portfolio (validates that pipeline beyond mammoth/dire wolf is real)
    Source: https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/colossal-biosciences-species-extinction-bluebuckconf 99%
  4. 2026-10-15pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFirst successful mammoth-edited Asian elephant embryo transfer
    How: Colossal announces first viable embryo transfer using mammoth-CRISPR-edited Asian elephant cells
    Source: https://www.denofgeek.com/culture/colossal-woolly-mammoth-on-track-2028-de-extinction-evolves/ — embryo-transfer next stageconf 55%
  6. 2027-04-01pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  7. 2027-09-16pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  8. 2028-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFirst viable mammoth-trait Asian elephant calf birth (22-month gestation)
    How: Live birth of Asian elephant calf carrying CRISPR-edited mammoth traits — Colossal's stated 2028 target
    Source: Colossal public roadmap, NPR coverage March 2026conf 45%
    Notes: Cascade — fulfills the prediction directly. 22-month gestation means embryo transfer must succeed by early 2027 to hit 2028 birth.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 45%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z44.9%-1.6pp
Network propagation: 46.6% → 44.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z46.6%-3.2pp
Network propagation: 49.8% → 46.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z49.8%-6.3pp
Network propagation: 56.1% → 49.8%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
legacy v12026-04-30T19:17:54Z56.1%+11.1pp
intake:99aa73db-75b1-4b1e-8470-a11f87b23937 bayesian_v2 inside=0.561 blend=0.561 LLR=0.446 κ=0.64 no_blend
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z45.0%-1.7pp
Network propagation: 46.7% → 45.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.7%-3.3pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK13
Biotech/Synbio Safety Event
15.0%0.0500.500-0.017

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqCOD_BIO_003
Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant Codex Research Pack
19.5%0.3500.050-0.013

Ticker exposure

24 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (19)

ABCLNTLASDGRPACBRXRXRLAYDNATXGTWSTABSICRSPILMNMDTABTAZNBNTXGEHCGOOGLSMMNY

Adverse (4)

NVOFMSDVAPFE

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK13Biotech/Synbio Safety Event

Dependents (1)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqCOD_BIO_003Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant surrogate by end 2027Biotech/Longevity

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2028-12-31Colossal first mammoth-like calf public targetpending

Linked documents (7)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.750codex_research_packColossal - Dire Wolf projectcorroboratespending2025-04-07
0.750codex_research_packAxios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction targetcorroboratespending2026-04-30
0.750codex_research_packColossal - Woolly Mouse Mammoth gene editing validates de-extinction pipelinecorroboratespending2025-03-04
0.598github_releasemeta-llama/llama-models v0.1.3mentionspending2025-02-14
0.596github_releasemeta-llama/llama-cookbook v0.0.4mentionspending2024-09-25
0.588github_releasemeta-llama/llama-cookbook v0.0.3mentionspending2024-07-23
0.585polymarketWill the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?1%mentionspending2025-06-19

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "Woolly mammoth, Tasmanian tiger, dodo, moa",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "publicly we've announced uh the woolly mammoth, the Tasmanian tiger, the dodo, and the moa.",
  "verbatim": "publicly we've announced uh the woolly mammoth, the Tasmanian tiger, the dodo, and the moa. And then we've we've made the direwolves. Uh we we will have more direwolves coming which we have announced.",
  "conv_cues": "publicly announced",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal raises additional $200M+ on path to mammoth-by-2028",
      "source": "https://www.jpost.com/science/science-around-the-world/article-838315 — Colossal secures $200M for mammoth-by-2028",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.jpost.com/science/science-around-the-world/article-838315",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal Biosciences announces $200M+ funding round explicitly tied to woolly mammoth de-extinction roadmap"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Founder publicly reaffirms 2028 mammoth target at major venue",
      "source": "https://www.euronews.com/2026/02/13/bringing-back-extinct-species-is-the-most-exciting-thing-in-2026-says-colossal-founder-at- — WGS Feb 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.euronews.com/2026/02/13/bringing-back-extinct-species-is-the-most-exciting-thing-in-2026-says-colossal-founder-at-",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-13",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-13",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Ben Lamm (Colossal CEO) publicly states de-extinction is 'most exciting thing in 2026' at major conference (e.g., World Government Summit)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Sixth de-extinction species (bluebuck) added to portfolio",
      "source": "https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/colossal-biosciences-species-extinction-bluebuck",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/04/30/colossal-biosciences-species-extinction-bluebuck",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal adds new species to public de-extinction portfolio (validates that pipeline beyond mammoth/dire wolf is real)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-15",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First successful mammoth-edited Asian elephant embryo transfer",
      "source": "https://www.denofgeek.com/culture/colossal-woolly-mammoth-on-track-2028-de-extinction-evolves/ — embryo-transfer next stage",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.denofgeek.com/culture/colossal-woolly-mammoth-on-track-2028-de-extinction-evolves/",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal announces first viable embryo transfer using mammoth-CRISPR-edited Asian elephant cells"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_ch
... (truncated)