COD_BIO_003predictionBiotech/Longevitymammoth-deextinction

Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant surrogate by end 2027

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

Prior probability

35.0%

Current probability

19.5%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

3/5

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-04-30 – 2027-12-31

Edges in / out

1 / 1

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant surrogate by end 2027

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.850

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from Codex Research Pack is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 19.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 5 pending

2026-03-04hitColossal Biosciences confirms 2028 woolly mammoth birth target (Mar 2026)
How: NPR / Den of Geek / Screen Rant confirm Colossal restated 2028 mammoth birth goal in early 2026
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
2026-07-25pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-10-20pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-06-01 → 2027-03-31pendingAsian elephant ovum retrieval / IVF protocol validated (peer-reviewed publication)
How: Colossal or collaborator publishes peer-reviewed Asian elephant IVF / ovum retrieval workflow — prerequisite for embryo transfer
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
2027-01-14pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingColossal announces edited-elephant-cell line with full mammoth gene-edit suite ready for embryo creation
How: Press release or paper documenting edited Asian elephant fibroblasts / iPSC line with mammoth-trait edits validated, last-stage editing milestone Colossal references
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
2027-04-11pendingColossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant surrogate by end 2027
2027-01-01 → 2027-09-30pendingFirst mammoth-edit embryo created in vitro (lab-stage milestone)
How: Colossal announces creation of first viable in vitro mammoth-edit embryo, prerequisite for any surrogate transfer
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 25%
2027-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFirst embryo transferred into elephant surrogate by end-2027 (prediction direct event)
How: Colossal press release / peer-reviewed announcement of successful transfer of mammoth-edit embryo into Asian elephant surrogate — prediction satisfied. Skepticism is high; pace likely measured in years not 2027.
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 10%
2028-10-04pendingColossal produces a live mammoth-like elephant calf by end 2028

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 20%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z19.5%-1.1pp

Network propagation: 20.7% → 19.5%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z20.7%-2.2pp

Network propagation: 22.8% → 20.7%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z22.8%-4.2pp

Network propagation: 27.0% → 22.8%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z27.0%-8.0pp

Network propagation: 35.0% → 27.0%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	245_007 Colossal will bring back the woolly mammoth — Ben Lamm	44.9%	0.350	0.050	-0.013

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	COD_BIO_004 Colossal produces a live mammoth-like elephant calf by end 2 — Codex Research Pack	11.7%	0.320	0.050	-0.016

Ticker exposure

2 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (2)

DNA TWST

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	245_007	Colossal will bring back the woolly mammoth	Biotech/Longevity	—

Dependents (1)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	COD_BIO_004	Colossal produces a live mammoth-like elephant calf by end 2028	Biotech/Longevity	—

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.700	codex_research_pack	Colossal - Woolly Mouse Mammoth gene editing validates de-extinction pipeline	—	mentions	pending	2025-03-04
0.700	codex_research_pack	Axios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction target	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.582	polymarket	Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	1%	mentions	pending	2025-06-19

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "pack_id": "codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal Biosciences confirms 2028 woolly mammoth birth target (Mar 2026)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://screenrant.com/colossal-biosciences-confirms-2028-woolly-mammoth-birth/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-04",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-04",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NPR / Den of Geek / Screen Rant confirm Colossal restated 2028 mammoth birth goal in early 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Asian elephant ovum retrieval / IVF protocol validated (peer-reviewed publication)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://www.maloriesadventures.com/blog/the-2026-de-extinction-race-why-were-spending-billions-to-bring-back-the-mammoth",
      "expected_date": "2026-10-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-03-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal or collaborator publishes peer-reviewed Asian elephant IVF / ovum retrieval workflow — prerequisite for embryo transfer"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-01-14",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal announces edited-elephant-cell line with full mammoth gene-edit suite ready for embryo creation",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://www.denofgeek.com/culture/colossal-woolly-mammoth-on-track-2028-de-extinction-evolves/",
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Press release or paper documenting edited Asian elephant fibroblasts / iPSC line with mammoth-trait edits validated, last-stage editing milestone Colossal references"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant surrogate by end 2027",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "COD_BIO_003",
      "expected_date": "2027-04-11",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "First mammoth-edit embryo created in vitro (lab-stage milestone)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.25,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth",
      "expected_date": "2027-05-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-09-30",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal announces creation of first viabl
... (truncated)