COD_BIO_004predictionBiotech/Longevitymammoth-deextinction

Colossal produces a live mammoth-like elephant calf by end 2028

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

Prior probability

32.0%

Current probability

11.7%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

3/5

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2028-01-01 – 2028-12-31

Edges in / out

1 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Colossal produces a live mammoth-like elephant calf by end 2028

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.850

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from Codex Research Pack is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 11.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 9 pending

2026-06-30pendingColossal published woolly-mice or related proxy validates 23-gene-edit phenotype
How: Peer-reviewed paper describing in vivo phenotypic verification of the cold-adaptation gene edits in mouse model
Source: MIT Tech Review woolly mice 2025conf 55%
2026-09-30pendingColossal completes elephant ovum retrieval at scale (>=20 viable oocytes)
How: Colossal press release or paper documents successful Asian elephant oocyte recovery at scale per their 2.5y ART program
Source: Colossal mammoth roadmap public statementsconf 55%
2026-12-31pendingFirst mammoth-edited embryo transferred into Asian elephant surrogate
How: Colossal announces successful embryo transfer (ET) into surrogate Asian elephant — required ~22mo pre-2028 calf to fit gestation window
Source: Colossal 22-month gestation arithmetic + 2028 targetconf 50%
2027-04-11pendingColossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant surrogate by end 2027
2027-04-30pendingSuccessful pregnancy confirmed via ultrasound at >=4 months post-transfer
How: Colossal verifies sustained pregnancy via veterinary imaging in surrogate elephant
Source: Animal reproductive science timeline conventionsconf 45%
2027-01-01 → 2027-09-30pendingBackup ET into 2nd or 3rd surrogate completed (redundancy strategy)
How: Colossal announces multiple parallel surrogates pregnant or attempted — improves probability of live calf by 2028
Source: Animal-reproduction redundancy strategy conventionconf 45%
2028-03-10pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
2028-05-18pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
2028-07-26pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2028-10-04pendingColossal produces a live mammoth-like elephant calf by end 2028

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 12%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z11.7%-1.3pp

Network propagation: 13.0% → 11.7%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z13.0%-2.5pp

Network propagation: 15.5% → 13.0%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z15.5%-5.2pp

Network propagation: 20.7% → 15.5%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z20.7%-11.3pp

Network propagation: 32.0% → 20.7%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	COD_BIO_003 Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant — Codex Research Pack	19.5%	0.320	0.050	-0.016

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

2 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (2)

DNA TWST

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	COD_BIO_003	Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant surrogate by end 2027	Biotech/Longevity	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers

Expected by	Description	Status
2028-12-31	Colossal first mammoth-like calf public target	pending

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.700	codex_research_pack	Colossal - Woolly Mouse Mammoth gene editing validates de-extinction pipeline	—	mentions	pending	2025-03-04
0.700	codex_research_pack	Axios - Colossal Biosciences reveals bluebuck de-extinction target	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.590	polymarket	Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	1%	mentions	pending	2025-06-19

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "pack_id": "codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal published woolly-mice or related proxy validates 23-gene-edit phenotype",
      "source": "MIT Tech Review woolly mice 2025",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/03/04/1112796/gene-edited-woolly-mice-step-towards-woolly-mammoths/",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed paper describing in vivo phenotypic verification of the cold-adaptation gene edits in mouse model"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal completes elephant ovum retrieval at scale (>=20 viable oocytes)",
      "source": "Colossal mammoth roadmap public statements",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.denofgeek.com/culture/colossal-woolly-mammoth-on-track-2028-de-extinction-evolves/",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal press release or paper documents successful Asian elephant oocyte recovery at scale per their 2.5y ART program"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First mammoth-edited embryo transferred into Asian elephant surrogate",
      "source": "Colossal 22-month gestation arithmetic + 2028 target",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/03/04/1112796/gene-edited-woolly-mice-step-towards-woolly-mammoths/",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal announces successful embryo transfer (ET) into surrogate Asian elephant — required ~22mo pre-2028 calf to fit gestation window"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Colossal completes mammoth embryo transfer into an elephant surrogate by end 2027",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "COD_BIO_003",
      "expected_date": "2027-04-11",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Successful pregnancy confirmed via ultrasound at >=4 months post-transfer",
      "source": "Animal reproductive science timeline conventions",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/03/04/nx-s1-5704318/colossal-woolly-mammoth-dire-wolf",
      "expected_date": "2027-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal verifies sustained pregnancy via veterinary imaging in surrogate elephant"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Backup ET into 2nd or 3rd surrogate completed (redundancy strategy)",
      "source": "Animal-reproduction redundancy strategy convention",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://www.audacy.com/wbbm780/news/national/scientists-set-four-year-timeline-to-bring-woolly-mammoth",
      "expected_date": "2027-05-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-09-30",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal announces multiple parallel surrogates pregnant or attempted — improves probability of live calf by 2028"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_
... (truncated)