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245_005predictionBiotech/Longevitysynbio

Countries will become customers to preserve endangered species via Colossal

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
52.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2030-12-31
Edges in / out
1 / 0
Tickers exposed
24

Prediction text

Countries will become customers to preserve endangered species via Colossal | So the way I think about this is countries are your customer for um saving their endangered species uh for and eventually it'll be productionized like once we are successful with artificial wombs.

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)"
So the way I think about this is countries are your customer for um saving their endangered species uh for and eventually it'll be productionized like once we are successful with artificial wombs.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 52.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 7 pending
  1. 2026-04-30hitColossal/Re:wild partnership active across pink pigeon, thylacine, NWR portfolio
    How: Re:wild and Colossal joint disclosures show ongoing genetic-rescue programs across multiple endangered species
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 93%
  2. 2026-04-30hitBluebuck added as 6th species in Colossal de-extinction portfolio
    How: Public announcement adding African bluebuck to Colossal's named de-extinction species list
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
  3. 2027-01-21pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFirst sovereign government signs paid contract with Colossal for endangered-species genetic rescue
    How: Press release or government procurement filing showing national government (Australia, Mauritius, etc.) paying Colossal under named program
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 40%
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingColossal Biovault reaches biobanking milestone (>1000 endangered-species cell lines stored)
    How: Colossal Foundation public report confirming >=1000 distinct endangered-species cell lines biobanked
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 50%
  6. 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingAustralian government allocates funding for thylacine reintroduction feasibility study
    How: Tasmania state government or Australian federal budget includes named line item for thylacine reintroduction or related Colossal-funded program
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 40%
  7. 2027-10-15pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  8. 2027-06-01 → 2029-04-01pendingMulti-government consortium model emerges (UN/CITES adjacent) with paid Colossal services
    How: Multilateral framework or UN-affiliated body announces consortium funding for biotech-driven species preservation involving Colossal
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 30%
  9. 2028-07-08pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 53%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z52.9%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 54.0% → 52.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z54.0%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 56.0% → 54.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z56.0%-4.0pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 56.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK13
Biotech/Synbio Safety Event
15.0%0.0500.600-0.011

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

24 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (19)

ABCLNTLASDGRPACBRXRXRLAYDNATXGTWSTABSICRSPILMNMDTABTAZNBNTXGEHCGOOGLSMMNY

Adverse (4)

NVOFMSDVAPFE

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK13Biotech/Synbio Safety Event

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Conditional on successful artificial wombs",
  "context": "countries are your customer for um saving their endangered species uh for and eventually it'll be productionized like once we are successful with artificial wombs.",
  "verbatim": "So the way I think about this is countries are your customer for um saving their endangered species uh for and eventually it'll be productionized like once we are successful with artificial wombs.",
  "conv_cues": "the way I think about this; eventually",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Future (conditional on artificial womb success)",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal/Re:wild partnership active across pink pigeon, thylacine, NWR portfolio",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.93,
      "source_url": "https://www.rewild.org/colossal",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Re:wild and Colossal joint disclosures show ongoing genetic-rescue programs across multiple endangered species"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Bluebuck added as 6th species in Colossal de-extinction portfolio",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/science/bluebuck-colossal-biosciences-deextinction-spc-c2e",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public announcement adding African bluebuck to Colossal's named de-extinction species list"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-01-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First sovereign government signs paid contract with Colossal for endangered-species genetic rescue",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Press release or government procurement filing showing national government (Australia, Mauritius, etc.) paying Colossal under named program"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossal Biovault reaches biobanking milestone (>1000 endangered-species cell lines stored)",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Colossal Foundation public report confirming >=1000 distinct endangered-species cell lines biobanked"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Australian government allocates funding for thylacine reintroduction feasibility study",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2027-09-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measureme
... (truncated)