Countries will become customers to preserve endangered species via Colossal
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source
Prediction text
Countries will become customers to preserve endangered species via Colossal | So the way I think about this is countries are your customer for um saving their endangered species uh for and eventually it'll be productionized like once we are successful with artificial wombs.
Verbatim quote
So the way I think about this is countries are your customer for um saving their endangered species uh for and eventually it'll be productionized like once we are successful with artificial wombs.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-30hitColossal/Re:wild partnership active across pink pigeon, thylacine, NWR portfolioHow: Re:wild and Colossal joint disclosures show ongoing genetic-rescue programs across multiple endangered speciesSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 93%
- 2026-04-30hitBluebuck added as 6th species in Colossal de-extinction portfolioHow: Public announcement adding African bluebuck to Colossal's named de-extinction species listSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
- 2027-01-21pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFirst sovereign government signs paid contract with Colossal for endangered-species genetic rescueHow: Press release or government procurement filing showing national government (Australia, Mauritius, etc.) paying Colossal under named programSource: llm_enrichedconf 40%
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingColossal Biovault reaches biobanking milestone (>1000 endangered-species cell lines stored)How: Colossal Foundation public report confirming >=1000 distinct endangered-species cell lines biobankedSource: llm_enrichedconf 50%
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingAustralian government allocates funding for thylacine reintroduction feasibility studyHow: Tasmania state government or Australian federal budget includes named line item for thylacine reintroduction or related Colossal-funded programSource: llm_enrichedconf 40%
- 2027-10-15pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2027-06-01 → 2029-04-01pendingMulti-government consortium model emerges (UN/CITES adjacent) with paid Colossal servicesHow: Multilateral framework or UN-affiliated body announces consortium funding for biotech-driven species preservation involving ColossalSource: llm_enrichedconf 30%
- 2028-07-08pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.011 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (19)
Adverse (4)
Prerequisites (1)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK13 | Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Host",
"caveats": "Conditional on successful artificial wombs",
"context": "countries are your customer for um saving their endangered species uh for and eventually it'll be productionized like once we are successful with artificial wombs.",
"verbatim": "So the way I think about this is countries are your customer for um saving their endangered species uh for and eventually it'll be productionized like once we are successful with artificial wombs.",
"conv_cues": "the way I think about this; eventually",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Future (conditional on artificial womb success)",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Colossal/Re:wild partnership active across pink pigeon, thylacine, NWR portfolio",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.93,
"source_url": "https://www.rewild.org/colossal",
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"observed_date": "2026-04-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Re:wild and Colossal joint disclosures show ongoing genetic-rescue programs across multiple endangered species"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Bluebuck added as 6th species in Colossal de-extinction portfolio",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/science/bluebuck-colossal-biosciences-deextinction-spc-c2e",
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"observed_date": "2026-04-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Public announcement adding African bluebuck to Colossal's named de-extinction species list"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2027-01-21",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First sovereign government signs paid contract with Colossal for endangered-species genetic rescue",
"source": "llm_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.4,
"expected_date": "2027-06-16",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-06-30",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Press release or government procurement filing showing national government (Australia, Mauritius, etc.) paying Colossal under named program"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Colossal Biovault reaches biobanking milestone (>1000 endangered-species cell lines stored)",
"source": "llm_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.5,
"expected_date": "2027-06-16",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-06-30",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Colossal Foundation public report confirming >=1000 distinct endangered-species cell lines biobanked"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Australian government allocates funding for thylacine reintroduction feasibility study",
"source": "llm_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.4,
"expected_date": "2027-09-16",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measureme
... (truncated)