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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.57	Free Lottery (Tully–Fisher Relation)(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-04	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	15%
0.57	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 754 : Suggest the best expression(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-05	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.57	Free Lottery (direct distance measurement)(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-06-06	CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	40%
0.57	Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-06	TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)	—	8%
0.57	What will be announced in tomorrow's Nintendo Direct? [Short Fuse] [Add Answers!]	manifold 2026-06-08	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.57	🇸🇦KSA vs 🇺🇾URY [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇧🇪BEL vs 🇪🇬EGY [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇪🇸ESP vs 🇨🇻CPV [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇸🇪SWE vs 🇹🇳TUN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇨🇮CIV vs 🇪🇨ECU [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇳🇱NED vs 🇯🇵JPN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇩🇪GER vs 🇨🇼CUW [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇦🇺AUS vs 🇹🇷TUR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇭🇹HAI vs 🇬🇧SCO [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇧🇷BRA vs 🇲🇦MAR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇶🇦QAT vs 🇨🇭SUI [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇺🇸USA vs 🇵🇾PAR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇨🇦CAN vs 🇧🇦BIH [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇲🇽MEX vs 🇿🇦RSA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	Free Lottery (expansion of universe)(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-08	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will "Quick Paper Review: "There Will Be a Scientif..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-28	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.57	Will Cyprus join the Schengen Area by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-04-28	AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei	AI	16%
0.57	Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-04-28	237_008 App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. Alex Finn	Consumer	41%
0.57	Trump announce end of military operations against Iran by…? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-04-28	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-04-28	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will I solve an Erdos problem?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-04-27	238_021 Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]	manifold 2026-04-27	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.57	Will at least one World Marathon Major be won under 2 hours every year until end of 2029?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-04-26	248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	53%
0.57	UEFA Champions League 2025/26 final [Genuine Prediction](market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-24	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in May 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-30	FUT_011 By 2050: solar PV generation costs plunge below 0.5 cents per kWh in optimal geographic locations; below 1 cent per kWh across vast majority of globe; even in poorest-irradiance/highest-regulatory-burden regions costs not exceeding 1.5 cents per kWh. 2... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.57	How will I do in this month's manifold season?	manifold 2026-05-01	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.57	If the filibuster is ended by the midterms, what will the outcome of the 2026 US House and Senate elections be?	manifold 2026-05-03	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.57	If the filibuster is ended by the midterms, what will the outcome of the 2026 US House and Senate elections be?	manifold 2026-05-03	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.57	Who will campaign for Graham Platner?	manifold 2026-05-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley	Energy	42%
0.57	This market resolves to what the opposite of the different one (resolves at the opposite as me) Calendar Rotation Year!(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-05-04	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	Will Israel recognise civil marriages performed domestically by the end of 2027?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-03	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	Chess: Winner of GCT Super Rapid & Blitz 2026	manifold 2026-05-05	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Will Manifest 2027 have the option to buy tickets using mana?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-06	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.57	Will Manifest 2027 have the option to buy tickets using mana?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-06	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.57	Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-05-07	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.57	Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-07	242_047 Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.57	How many people will attend London Office Hours #056 by 9pm on Tuesday, 12 May 2026? 🍻🥂	manifold 2026-05-06	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	@MarySmith attends Manifest '26?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	What goals will I achieve this week?	manifold 2026-05-10	243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi	Consumer	51%
0.57	Free Lottery (Cosmic Explorer)(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-11	238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.57	What format will 'Jet Lag: The Game - Season Nineteen' take? (Read Description)	manifold 2026-05-07	234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Who will be North Sumatra rank 1 on the provincial round of 2026 Indonesia National Math Olympiad?	manifold 2026-05-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Android succeed in making it harder to side-load apps(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-05-14	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup prop bets	manifold 2026-05-15	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.57	Will my nephew join Manifold before June 1?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-16	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Round of 32	manifold 2026-05-17	235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Round of 32	manifold 2026-05-17	247_047 Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 Peter Diamandis	Energy	50%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Round of 32	manifold 2026-05-17	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Do you like 2% odds?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-18	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	What will the national average gas price be on July 1st?	manifold 2026-05-28	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-27	236_004 Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-27	240_008 NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming months Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	38%
0.57	Will my resin casted pepperoni mold within one year from today?(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-05-26	240_019 Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	Which site will have the highest average team score at ARML 2026?	manifold 2026-05-25	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.57	Wikipedia's article on xAi's successor to Grokipedia under title Encyclopedia Galactica by Christmas eve 2027?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-25	INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	What team will win the 2026 UFA Championship?	manifold 2026-05-31	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-06-01	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will an Average New Zealander born in the year 2000 live to 150? (RESOLVES IN A WEEK)(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-03	235_028 Longevity market will grow from $5 trillion to $8 trillion in next four years. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	56%
0.57	Will Russia gain more territory than it loses in June 2026, according to Ukraine?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-06-04	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	How many of the so-called "Big 6" will finish in the Premier League top 6 in 2026-27?	manifold 2026-06-05	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Who will win the 2026 Classic Tetris World Championship (CTWC)?	manifold 2026-06-06	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	What will be the sum of my AP scores releasing this July?	manifold 2026-06-06	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will any western country deny women the vote in the 21st century?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-06-07	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.57	What will be announced in tomorrow's Nintendo Direct? [Short Fuse] [Add Answers!]	manifold 2026-06-08	245_014 Colossal has major announcements coming this year with a local government on productionizing cloning of endangered species Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.57	US-Iran negotiations resume before June 2026? (check description)(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-04-29	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Will I get a Gold Medal on USAMO 2027?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-04-28	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	Will Israel attack Iraq in 2030?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-04-26	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.57	Will at least one World Marathon Major be won under 2 hours every year until end of 2029?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-04-26	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	What will my mathcounts state score be?	manifold 2026-04-26	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Price of gas on Election Day?	manifold 2026-04-25	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	UEFA Champions League 2025/26 final [Genuine Prediction](market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-24	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	UEFA Champions League 2025/26 final [Genuine Prediction](market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-24	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	When will SCOTUS hear a Second Amendment case about a weaponized flying drone?	manifold 2026-04-24	247_004 Musk v. OpenAI case will set precedent for all future nonprofit-to-for-profit conversions Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	will my application to the 2026 LWCW be accepted? [short fuse](market prob: 71%)	manifold 2026-04-30	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	Will "Considerations around career costs of politic..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-27	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	Will i get off at least one waitlist, (promys, ross, sumac)(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-25	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will a Chinese airline announce a purchase of at least 25 Boeing aircraft before June?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-04-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	What will be the outcome of the controversy concerning R. F. Kuang's Taipei Story ARC?	manifold 2026-05-04	246_024 Something really bad will happen if OpenAI catches up/Grok 5 releases (forced mythos out the door). Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	Will Rudy Giuliani die in 2026?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-03	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.57	Will this market appear on a mug?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-06	232_038 Lunar fabs are a $100 trillion dollar opportunity. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	43%
0.57	How many weeks will the Strait of Hormuz remain closed?	manifold 2026-05-07	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will https://vivarium.sh/ still exist by EOY2028(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-07	242_058 Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	51%
0.57	Will Luke Wang PEA Class of 2027 make at least 1 HYPSM(market prob: 92%)	manifold 2026-05-11	FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community	AI	48%
0.57	Will Germany pass a law that allows a weekly maximum working time of 48 hours per week before the end of 2027?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-05-12	242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.57	Will The Gameoverse Pilot reach 25 million views by the end of June?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-12	238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	40%
0.57	Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?	manifold 2026-05-16	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	Nürburgring 24 Hours Prop bets	manifold 2026-05-16	COD_ROB_001 Figure sustains a one-robot-per-hour Figure 03 production run-rate for at least 30 consecutive days by Q4 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	24%
0.57	Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-17	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will I be a finalist in the 2026 ACX book review contest?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-05-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Which countries will be designated state sponsors of terrorism by the US at the end of 2027?	manifold 2026-05-18	INF_046 Governments worldwide will increasingly prioritize absolute energy independence, pursuing self-sufficiency in critical materials and domestic manufacturing capacity to support Sovereign AI initiatives — extending beyond G7 to mid-sized nations (Estonia... Morgan Stanley	Geopolitics	62%
0.57	Which team will win ARML 2026 Division B?	manifold 2026-05-18	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	By how much will the Democrats beat the GOP in the 2026 Massachusetts Governor’s Race?	manifold 2026-05-19	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.57	2027 French Open - Men’s singles winner?	manifold 2026-05-19	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Who will win the MA-08 democratic primary?	manifold 2026-05-30	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of August? [Polymarket](market prob: 56%)	manifold 2026-05-29	INF_064 Within 15-20 years, the vast majority of global ride-hailing trips will be fulfilled by autonomous robotic vehicles — with human labor entirely removed from driving/delivery and transitioned to "mission control" roles (fleet maintenance, rapid rechargi... Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	58%
0.57	LessOnline 2027 will use brand new event software(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-28	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Will my resin casted pepperoni mold within one year from today?(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-05-26	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.57	Will The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act make over $100 million at the worldwide box office?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-06-01	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.57	Manifold Markets says I have 140 Traders right now. By June 7th I will have 60 more.(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-06-03	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Will Hunter Biden run for US President during his lifetime?(market prob: 29%)	manifold 2026-06-05	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	Best Out-of-Context Quote at LessOnline 2026	manifold 2026-06-05	241_049 Underage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't cross Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	What will be announced in tomorrow's Nintendo Direct? [Short Fuse] [Add Answers!]	manifold 2026-06-08	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Free Lottery (Monster black hole)(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-04-29	246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-04-28	240_004 A new repo from 2027 will go from zero to a billion stars in 5 minutes Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	36%
0.57	Which country will win the 2026 ICPC World Finals?	manifold 2026-04-28	SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg	Semis/Geopolitics	24%
0.57	In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]	manifold 2026-04-27	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.57	Will I promote to Platinum this season?(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-04-26	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	will drake delay iceman from his proposed date (15th may)(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-04-25	238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick	Robotics	42%
0.57	Will a particular friend of mine crack anyone while at math camp?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-04-24	238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	61%
0.57	Which side will win in "The Prediction Market Debate"?	manifold 2026-04-24	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	will my application to the 2026 LWCW be accepted? [short fuse](market prob: 71%)	manifold 2026-04-30	FUT_016 Next 5 years (2026-2030) require individuals + organizations to adopt 'FLUX' superpowers — ability to transform constant uncertainty into strategic advantage. Traditional linear career paths dissolve entirely by 2030, replaced by fluid portfolio-based ... April Rinne	Labor/Jobs	44%
0.57	Penalty shootout in champions league semi final? 2025/2026 season(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-04-30	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Which Bernie Sanders endorsees will win their 2026 primaries?	manifold 2026-05-01	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will a member of the House of Representatives for the Choktaw Nation be seated by EOY 2031?(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-03	235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	F1: Who will win the 2026 Lenovo Canadian Grand Prix?	manifold 2026-05-04	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz on any week in 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-04	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.57	Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.57	Will Guinea's bauxite exports for calendar year 2027 exceed 140 million tonnes?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	84%
0.57	Will Subnautica 2 have more peak players in the first month of Early Access than Subnautica: Below Zero?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-04	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57	SPD above 5% in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-05-07	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will "Taking woo seriously but not literally" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-07	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	@MarySmith attends Manifest '26?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-07	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	Will Marco Rubio ever be President of the United States?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-05-10	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-10	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.57	What time will my 13 year old son leave the house for his paper round on Wednesday 13th May?	manifold 2026-05-11	229_022 Figure plans to launch an alpha in-home test robot (in Adcock's home) doing end-to-end home work during 2026. Brett Adcock	Robotics	38%
0.57	What will my Zetamac score (average of 5) be in a week?	manifold 2026-05-11	231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Trump meets Xi Jinping again in 2026?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-05-13	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.57	Will Starmer contest a leadership challenge?(market prob: 61%)	manifold 2026-05-14	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.57	How many candidates will take part in the next UK Labour leadership election?	manifold 2026-05-14	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will the Bun rewrite in Rust stick?(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-05-14	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.57	Will I get COVID ten times before getting hantavirus?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-16	236_024 Commercial real estate will come under tremendous pressure Andrew Yang	Real Estate	51%
0.57	USA stage of elimination at fifa World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-16	245_020 Screworm will decimate US cattle and bison industry Ben Lamm	Other	45%
0.57	Biggest AfD–CDU/CSU poll gap in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-17	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Round of 32	manifold 2026-05-17	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	Which countries will be designated state sponsors of terrorism by the US at the end of 2027?	manifold 2026-05-18	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.57	Who will win the 2026 Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff	manifold 2026-05-19	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	New fish species (market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-19	IND_005 Convergence of computational biology + AI-driven data modeling + CRISPR gene editing enables bringing back extinct species — Form Bio platform (spun out 2022) enables successful resurrection of woolly mammoth and Tasmanian tiger within the decade (by ~... Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	33%
0.57	Will the 2026 NBA Finals reach a Game 6?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	F1 2026 Monaco Grand Prix Pole Position	manifold 2026-05-30	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-30	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will the US strike Oman before June 16?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-28	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	JD Vance out as VP before...?	manifold 2026-05-28	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	World cup 2026 winner	manifold 2026-05-27	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	World cup 2026 winner	manifold 2026-05-27	COD_SPC_004 Europa Clipper completes Earth gravity assist in December 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	48%
0.57	What will trump say this week? May 25th-May 31st (Kalshi)	manifold 2026-05-26	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Ju Wenjun - Vaishali score in the 2026 FIDE Women World Chess Championship	manifold 2026-05-25	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.57	Next James Bond officially announced before end of June 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-01	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Skeletor is gonna reference the meme “until we meet again”?(market prob: 79%)	manifold 2026-06-02	229_032 Figure will ship a figure with 'personality' the user can talk to and that remembers, over the next year or two. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.57	Will an Average New Zealander born in the year 2000 live to 150? (RESOLVES IN A WEEK)(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-06-03	238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	40%
0.57	Will "Disclosure Day" earn more than $45M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-06-01	240_010 NVIDIA revenue will hit $350 billion this calendar year Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Will there be a complete, professional looking comic book adaptation of HPMOR, before 2029?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-06-04	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57	Will July 2026 in Boston be one of the 5 warmest July's ever?(market prob: 66%)	manifold 2026-06-05	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Days I'll create a market in June?	manifold 2026-06-02	247_047 Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 Peter Diamandis	Energy	50%
0.57	Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-06	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	F1: BARCELONA-CATALUNY 🇪🇸 GP 2026 WINNER 🏎️	manifold 2026-06-07	242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	What will appear in the June 9, 2026 Nintendo Direct?	manifold 2026-06-08	238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	What will appear in the June 9, 2026 Nintendo Direct?	manifold 2026-06-08	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.57	Will any 2026 World Cup match be disrupted by security or weather?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-06-07	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.57	Trump announce end of military operations against Iran by…? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-04-28	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.57	Will ""Thinkhaven"" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-27	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Will the winner of the 2026 Kentucky Derby finish in under 2:02.00?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-04-26	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.57	USA vs Iran in World Cup 2026?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-04-30	238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will "Considerations around career costs of politic..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-27	SEM_037 For any job you can do on the other side of a screen, AI will probably be able to do it better, faster, and cheaper by next year (2026-2027). Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.57	Which Party will win the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election?	manifold 2026-05-01	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will a Chinese airline announce a purchase of at least 25 Boeing aircraft before June?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-04-30	SEM_041 At least 100,000 personal AI robots will be preordered in 2025 (driven by speech/vision/dexterity advances). Brett Adcock	Robotics	42%
0.57	Will Spirit Airlines complete shutdown of operations by July 31, 2026?(market prob: 95%)	manifold 2026-05-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	How many members will the UK Liberal Democrats have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will Iran's food stockpile run out before Aug 2, 2026?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-02	235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Will the face of Jose Luis Ricon be minted on a physical coin by 2222(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-01	231_040 Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation. Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	38%
0.57	Who will win the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Poland (GCT 1st event)?	manifold 2026-05-04	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Hindalco Industries's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 1.4 million tonnes?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	Sam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-04	SPC_023 Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-c... Sam Altman	AI	18%
0.57	Will May 2026 be Denver snowiest month of the entire 2025 to 2026 winter season(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-04	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2027? (May 5)(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-05	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	Altar of Champions winner? (Grubby's WC3 streamer invitational)	manifold 2026-05-07	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Will The_real_LV hit 150 followers on twitch?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-09	243_032 Uber business growing at >20% and audience growing at ~20% Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	48%
0.57	Will Luke Wang PEA Class of 2027 make at least 1 HYPSM(market prob: 92%)	manifold 2026-05-11	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.57	Will national dry van spot rate be $1.75–$2.00/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-10	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	On which of these days in May will WTI Crude Oil Futures Price rise?	manifold 2026-05-12	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.57	China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips(market prob: 17%)	manifold 2026-05-12	CMQ_028 NVIDIA's total AI chip revenue opportunity through 2027 is at least $3-5 trillion (upgraded from prior estimates at MS TMT 2026). Jensen Huang	Semis	72%
0.57	Trailer for Star Fox movie or tv show before 2029?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-11	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Who will be Riau rank 1 on the provincial round of 2026 Indonesia National Math Olympiad?	manifold 2026-05-13	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57	Who will win the T20 series between Australia and Bangladesh in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-13	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.57	will al nassr win the saudi league(market prob: 88%)	manifold 2026-05-13	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	test-b(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	Will there be a red card in the 2026 UEFA Champions League final?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-14	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.57	Will Trump or Biden Live longer?	manifold 2026-05-15	233_015 Infinite longevity is coming for this generation of kids. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	25%
0.57	Will Trump or Biden Live longer?	manifold 2026-05-15	235_032 Elon Musk predicted Optimus will be your surgeon in 3 years. Elon Musk	Robotics	16%
0.57	Will Timothee Chalamet and Kylie Jenner announce their engagement before 2027?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-05-15	246_029 Apple will announce iPhone with Gemini-derived on-device model at WWDC June 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	54%
0.57	Will my nephew join Manifold before June 1?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-16	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-16	239_002 AI recursive self-improvement will be fully automated by end of 2026 or 2027 at latest Elon Musk	AI	44%
0.57	USA stage of elimination at fifa World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-16	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	English Premier League — Matchweek 37 (All fixtures)	manifold 2026-05-15	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	What gender should Terminator2 have? [Convince the Machine #12]	manifold 2026-05-14	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.57	Biggest AfD–CDU/CSU poll gap in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-17	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Biggest AfD–CDU/CSU poll gap in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-17	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.57	Keir Starmer out before September 1 2026?(market prob: 86%)	manifold 2026-05-16	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will Russia control Konstantinovka by the end of November 2026?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-30	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Will The Mandalorian and Grogu experience a 60.0% or greater drop in its second weekend at the domestic box office?(market prob: 92%)	manifold 2026-05-29	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	What will the national average gas price be on July 1st?	manifold 2026-05-28	S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027 Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027	compute_scale	60%
0.57	If Felix Gall signs for Lidl Trek for the 2027 season, will he win at least 1 UCI race for Lidl Trek before 2030?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-28	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	What will trump say this week? May 25th-May 31st (Kalshi)	manifold 2026-05-26	237_028 Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	78%
0.57	Rcb vs gt who is win(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-31	244_015 AV insurance model (driver vs platform vs combination) is TBD for a young industry Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	38%
0.57	Free Lottery (Blazar)(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-06-01	241_008 AI research agents will be limited only by electricity, with potentially millions possible Eric Schmidt	AI	43%
0.57	Will Solana close below $76 at any day in June?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Who will be in Thinking Basketball's top 10 NBA players of 2026 when healthy? (add answers is on)	manifold 2026-06-03	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will Hack Club Stardance add a gambling/feature that resembles probability-based games(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-04	231_027 Algorithmic arbitration with cryptographic verification will create programmable governments. Salim Ismail	Other	44%
0.57	Manifold Markets says I have 140 Traders right now. By June 7th I will have 60 more.(market prob: 74%)	manifold 2026-06-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	How many of the so-called "Big 6" will finish in the Premier League top 6 in 2026-27?	manifold 2026-06-05	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Who will win poker at Manifest 2026?	manifold 2026-06-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Resolves to the side with the most holders at market close(market prob: 12%)	manifold 2026-06-06	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Best meme competition : Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 351(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-08	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	20%
0.57	Will "Supergirl" earn more than $50M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?(market prob: 56%)	manifold 2026-06-08	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.57	What will be the Opening Weekend Domestic Gross of 'The Devil Wears Prada 2' (2026)?	manifold 2026-04-29	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	US-Iran negotiations resume before June 2026? (check description)(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-04-29	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-04-28	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]	manifold 2026-04-27	238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	40%
0.57	Price of gas on Election Day?	manifold 2026-04-25	244_032 Uber will cash flow $10B this year (2026) Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	55%
0.57	What will be the rating of the Enid Oklahoma Tornado (2026)	manifold 2026-04-24	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.57	The next new party to enter the German federal parliament (the Bundestag) will be an Islamic party. 🇩🇪🏛️☪️(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-04-23	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	VALVE?!(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-04-23	234_010 Whole battlefield will be controlled by whoever has the better AI very soon Dave Blundin	Defense	50%
0.57	Will "Considerations around career costs of politic..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-27	234_036 Job displacement will be issue 6-10 not top 5 in 10 years; AI discoveries will dominate Alex Wissner-Gross	Labor/Jobs	29%
0.57	Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	How many members will the UK Labour Party have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	How many members will the UK Labour Party have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	243_031 Uber will have significantly more drivers in 2030 than today, including in US Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	How many members will the UK Labour Party have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	IND_025 Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... Salim Ismail	Macro/Economy	23%
0.57	Who will win the 2026 Super Rapid & Blitz Poland (GCT 1st event)?	manifold 2026-05-04	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.57	Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz on any week in 2026?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-04	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.57	Will Guinea's bauxite exports for calendar year 2027 exceed 140 million tonnes?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-04	242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis	AI	45%
0.57	NHL Stanley Cup Round 2 Series Winner 2026	manifold 2026-05-04	COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Space	35%
0.57	Will Brightline shut down its Florida operations by the end of this year?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	AUT_018 Level 1 customer support sector functionally extinct and replaced by autonomous voice/text agents within 2-3 years, slashing operational costs by up to 50%; 2026 industry-defining blockbuster M&A deal exceeding $500 billion in AI sector; substantive ea... Jason Calacanis	Labor/Jobs	29%
0.57	Will Rudy Giuliani die in 2026?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-03	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	Will "Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Onesh..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-05-05	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will I solve a TSTST problem with MMP?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-04	240_003 NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Will I solve a TSTST problem with MMP?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-04	COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack	Semis	50%
0.57	Will Kalshi or Polymarket be convicted of fraud before 2029?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-07	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	How many weeks will the Strait of Hormuz remain closed?	manifold 2026-05-07	S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path	agi_general_capability	25%
0.57	Will Manifold beat me at FTW?(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-05-09	242_004 Musk ecosystem will lap Nvidia by 1-2 orders of magnitude Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.57	What will be my ranking in the Summer Metaculus Cup.	manifold 2026-05-09	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	87%
0.57	Will The_real_LV hit 150 followers on twitch?(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-09	244_026 Uber platform will grow from 10M to 20M people by 2035 Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Sum of my AP scores	manifold 2026-05-08	233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price	Education	39%
0.57	What goals will I achieve this week?	manifold 2026-05-10	COD_AI_004 Frontier agents reach one-workday autonomous task horizon by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	AI	36%
0.57	Alternate requested FairlyRandom market(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-05-11	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Australia's 2026-27 Budget - Props	manifold 2026-05-11	234_020 AI spending will grow from $2B/day to $3-5B/day by 2030 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.57	Will national dry van spot rate be $2.00–$2.25/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%)	manifold 2026-05-10	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	On which of these days in May will WTI Crude Oil Futures Price rise?	manifold 2026-05-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will the Trump-branded Trump Mobile Phone actually exist before the next Presidential election?(market prob: 94%)	manifold 2026-05-12	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-12	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	Who will be Angela Rayner's Chancellor at the end of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-15	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Will the US announce an arms sale to Taiwan of more than $10 billion dollars value between May and September 2026?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-16	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.57	USA stage of elimination at fifa World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-16	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	Biggest AfD–CDU/CSU poll gap in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-17	SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	56%
0.57	Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-17	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	Will I be a finalist in the 2026 ACX book review contest?(market prob: 23%)	manifold 2026-05-16	SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil	AI	41%
0.57	Will I get any money again from manifold this year?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-18	232_052 Lowered interest rates will drive AI agent and robot purchases instead of hiring. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	46%
0.57	[short fuse] What was the source of the explosion-like sound heard in New England? [add responses]	manifold 2026-05-30	241_006 Everyone is out of hardware and electricity due to AI boom Eric Schmidt	AI	79%
0.57	JD Vance out as VP before...?	manifold 2026-05-28	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	How many people will end up with a NSBA4 Combine Score equal to 15	manifold 2026-05-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Who will win the Washington 3rds House election in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-26	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will Trump's approval rating hit 37.4% or lower on Silver Bulletin by the end of June 2027?(market prob: 82%)	manifold 2026-05-25	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-24	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-06-01	S_AI_PAUSE_2026 Major-country AI pause beginning 2026	ai_regulatory_pause	5%
0.57	Next James Bond officially announced before end of June 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-06-01	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Free Lottery (Blazar)(market prob: 78%)	manifold 2026-06-01	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Will there be any news about another assassination attempt on Donald Trump this month?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-02	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	How cheap will fully farm-raised eel get? / 完全養殖ウナギ、いくらまで安くなる？(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-30	247_047 Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 Peter Diamandis	Energy	50%
0.57	Will Hack Club Stardance add a gambling/feature that resembles probability-based games(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-04	236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang	Consumer	51%
0.57	Will Iran fully enrich uranium stockpiles to a level of 90% before July?(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-04	INF_045 Nuclear sector will draw approximately $1.5 trillion in cumulative capital investment through 2050, increasing nuclear's share of global energy supply from ~10% currently to ~17%. Morgan Stanley	Energy	51%
0.57	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 754 : Suggest the best expression(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-05	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	Who will make Indonesia's IOAI 2026 Team?	manifold 2026-06-05	SPC_022 '2026 will be for AI in science what 2025 was for AI in software engineering' — a transition from AI as coding assistant to acting as scientific sparring partner: generating novel hypotheses, analyzing vast datasets, and dramatically accelerating R&D c... Kevin Weil	AI	41%
0.57	Will I get accepted to the August Iliad Intensive?(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-06-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Days I'll create a market in June?	manifold 2026-06-02	229_043 Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. Brett Adcock	Robotics	40%
0.57	Days I'll create a market in June?	manifold 2026-06-02	235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	More ships through Strait of Hormuz than goals at 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-08	IND_016 By late 2026, SpaceX will launch a flotilla of approximately 5 uncrewed Starships to the Martian surface — success relies entirely on autonomous orbital refilling + AI-driven landing telemetry, proving precursor infrastructure for human colonization ca... Gwynne Shotwell	Space	22%
0.57	Free Lottery (Monster black hole)(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-04-29	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	15%
0.57	Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-04-28	243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi	Consumer	51%
0.57	Sub-1:58 marathon before LA Olympics?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-04-27	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-04-23	238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Penalty shootout in champions league semi final? 2025/2026 season(market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-04-30	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.57	Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31? [Polymarket](market prob: 52%)	manifold 2026-05-01	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	If the filibuster is ended by the midterms, what will the outcome of the 2026 US House and Senate elections be?	manifold 2026-05-03	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Which college will get 3rd place on the 2025 Putnam exam?	manifold 2026-05-03	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.57	Strait of Hormuz escorts prop bets (before May 7th)	manifold 2026-05-04	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	2026 F1 Canada Qualification who qualifies better in each team	manifold 2026-05-04	SEM_036 World-class AI programmers will appear within 1-2 years (by 2027-2028). Eric Schmidt	AI/Cognition	70%
0.57	Will MIT accept anyone from their 2026 waitlist?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-04	S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt)	mars_uncrewed_landing	50%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-04	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Will May 2026 be Denver snowiest month of the entire 2025 to 2026 winter season(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-04	246_007 SpaceX road show will begin in June 2026. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	35%
0.57	Will the Fredie Mac US 30-year fixed-rate average drop below 5.75% before Nov 1, 2026.(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-03	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-06	243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi	Consumer	51%
0.57	test-a(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-05-08	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	test-a(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-05-08	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	Sum of my AP scores	manifold 2026-05-08	236_016 College premium is quickly evaporating Andrew Yang	Education	51%
0.57	@MarySmith attends Manifest '26?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-07	237_028 Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year. Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	78%
0.57	@MarySmith attends Manifest '26?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-07	238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	78%
0.57	Will Luke Wang PEA Class of 2027 make at least 1 HYPSM(market prob: 92%)	manifold 2026-05-11	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.57	Australia's 2026-27 Budget - Props	manifold 2026-05-11	246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-11	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Will Germany pass a law that allows a weekly maximum working time of 48 hours per week before the end of 2027?(market prob: 59%)	manifold 2026-05-12	240_050 US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-05-12	230_049 Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	How many candidates will take part in the next UK Labour leadership election?	manifold 2026-05-14	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup prop bets	manifold 2026-05-15	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.57	Will Trump or Biden Live longer?	manifold 2026-05-15	234_037 Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	42%
0.57	Who will be Andy Burnham's Chancellor at the end of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-15	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	Who will be Andy Burnham's Chancellor at the end of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-15	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Will Dan complain about the cost of NYC unprompted?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-16	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Mina the Hollower MEGAMARKET	manifold 2026-05-16	229_011 The humanoid robotics market/economy will be roughly $50 trillion—roughly half of global GDP of human labor. Brett Adcock	Markets/Stocks	36%
0.57	Will Thomas Massie say Trump should be impeached before the end of 2026?(market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-16	234_035 Massive social unrest will come before the next US presidential election Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	Biggest AfD–CDU/CSU poll gap in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-17	236_045 Government path to UBI vanishingly unlikely, but possible outsized asymmetry in 2028 Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?(market prob: 60%)	manifold 2026-05-17	230_049 Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Keir Starmer out before September 1 2026?(market prob: 86%)	manifold 2026-05-16	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.57	Will Russia control Konstantinovka by the end of November 2026?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-18	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Will there be more than 100 cases of ebola in the US in 2026?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-19	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.57	Will the 2026 NBA Finals reach a Game 6?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-18	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.57	Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-05-30	240_037 Amazon Zoox Robotaxi will launch in LA in 2027 Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	24%
0.57	Will The Democrats Win Every Presidential Election from 2028 to 2040?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-29	INF_073 AI will become smarter than any single human by end of 2025 or 2026, and smarter than all of humanity combined by 2030 or 2031. Elon Musk	AI	48%
0.57	When will the next MLB CBA be signed	manifold 2026-05-29	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	When will the next MLB CBA be signed	manifold 2026-05-29	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	What will the national average gas price be on July 1st?	manifold 2026-05-28	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will I Pass My Exams or Will I Pass Away?	manifold 2026-05-28	238_006 Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) Emad Mostaque	Labor/Jobs	40%
0.57	If Felix Gall signs for Lidl Trek for the 2027 season, will he win at least 1 UCI race for Lidl Trek before 2030?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-28	S_AGI_SLOW_2031 AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path	agi_general_capability	25%
0.57	World cup 2026 winner	manifold 2026-05-27	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Who will win the men's 2026 FIBA 3x3 World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-26	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	What countries will Donald Trump visit in the remainder of 2026?	manifold 2026-05-25	AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei	AI	16%
0.57	Which site will have the highest average team score at ARML 2026?	manifold 2026-05-25	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-05-25	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses this week, according to pro-Ukraine mappers?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-24	230_049 Big AI companies will own as much as they want up to the edge of antitrust triggers. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-06-01	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Will the ECB raise interest rates at its June 11, 2026 meeting?(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-06-03	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.57	Will "Disclosure Day" earn more than $45M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?(market prob: 70%)	manifold 2026-06-01	SEM_030 S&P 500 roughly 10% upside in 2026 driven by AI productivity wave rolling through broader economy (not just megacap). Mike Wilson	Capital Markets	43%
0.57	Will Hack Club Stardance add a gambling/feature that resembles probability-based games(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-04	248_007 We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls orchestrated by AI. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	37%
0.57	Will there be a complete, professional looking comic book adaptation of HPMOR, before 2029?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-06-04	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will "My favorite depiction of utopia" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-03	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Who will make Indonesia's IOAI 2026 Team?	manifold 2026-06-05	IND_025 Global economy enters 'Agentic Era' in 2027 — AI comprehensively automates knowledge work by 2026, forcing structural redesign of the modern corporation. Future labor force consists of highly agile 'ExOs' (Exponential Organizations) leveraging open-sou... Salim Ismail	Macro/Economy	23%
0.57	What will be the highest scoring draw in the FIFA World Cup group stage?	manifold 2026-06-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	World Cup Prop Bets: Qatar v Switzerland June 13 (add your own answers)	manifold 2026-06-06	244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi	Markets/Stocks	51%
0.57	Will a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-06-07	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	Will I score higher than 1500 on the June 6th SAT?(market prob: 68%)	manifold 2026-06-06	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.57	Will "Supergirl" earn more than $50M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?(market prob: 56%)	manifold 2026-06-08	242_042 Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Will a super-injunction relating to Sir Keir Starmer be revealed in 2026?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-04-29	246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman	AI	47%
0.57	What is the top sport? [Resolves to poll]	manifold 2026-04-28	244_004 Race car driving will persist as a sport Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	50%
0.57	Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-04-28	239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk	AI	40%
0.57	Sum of AP score	manifold 2026-04-28	236_016 College premium is quickly evaporating Andrew Yang	Education	51%
0.57	If this person is a candidate for WA-03, will a Democrat win the house seat in the 2026 midterms?	manifold 2026-04-26	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Which team will win Marble League 2026?	manifold 2026-04-26	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.57	Price of gas on Election Day?	manifold 2026-04-25	242_021 Autonomous ride costs will drop 10x vs today Dave Blundin	Auto/Transport	48%
0.57	When Will Mojtaba Khamenei be first be shown alive on video?	manifold 2026-04-23	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	VALVE?!(market prob: 4%)	manifold 2026-04-23	240_007 Regulators will dust off antitrust legislation against NVIDIA Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	38%
0.57	Who will win the Second Prize Drawing?	manifold 2026-05-01	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.57	How many members will the UK Conservative Party have at the start of 2029?	manifold 2026-05-02	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	If the filibuster is ended by the midterms, what will the outcome of the 2026 US House and Senate elections be?	manifold 2026-05-03	S_RECESSION_2026 NBER recession declared 2026	macro_recession	20%
0.57	Will Rudy Giuliani die in 2026?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-03	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	Will Rudy Giuliani die in 2026?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-05-03	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will "Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Onesh..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 22%)	manifold 2026-05-05	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	Will "Taking woo seriously but not literally" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-07	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	Will anyone trick me into sending them exactly M$1000 via managram? [Convince the Machine #10](market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-06	238_036 Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers Emad Mostaque	Media/Ads	35%
0.57	Will anyone trick me into sending them exactly M$1000 via managram? [Convince the Machine #10](market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-06	248_044 Alex: likely user ~1 million of a BCI implant (not 101) once upgradeable. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.57	Will Manifold beat me at FTW?(market prob: 87%)	manifold 2026-05-09	240_002 Amazon or Anthropic will hit a trillion in revenue within a calendar year faster than NVIDIA Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	What goals will I achieve this week?	manifold 2026-05-10	230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029(market prob: 32%)	manifold 2026-05-14	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will Stephen Colbert run for president in 2028?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-15	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will my nephew join Manifold before June 1?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-16	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.57	Will Dan complain about the cost of NYC unprompted?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-16	231_005 Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now). Peter Diamandis	AI	55%
0.57	On what days will I be productive [rest of the month]	manifold 2026-05-16	234_019 Expect big AI capability improvements via recursive self-improvement over next few weeks Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Nürburgring 24 Hours Prop bets	manifold 2026-05-16	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.57	Will Labour get more than 200 seats in the next UK House of Commons election?(market prob: 53%)	manifold 2026-05-15	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	What gender should Terminator2 have? [Convince the Machine #12]	manifold 2026-05-14	242_050 Humanoid robots will be over-engineered but will unlock supply chain Dave Blundin	Robotics	42%
0.57	Which team will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-17	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.57	Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028	manifold 2026-05-18	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.57	Resolves to Square root of a random number between 1-10,000(market prob: 68%)	manifold 2026-05-30	246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Will "Trees are mostly made of air and a generaliza..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-05-30	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.57	Will The Democrats Win Every Presidential Election from 2028 to 2040?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-05-29	AI_001 AI will surpass peak human intelligence across ALL economically valuable domains by 2030, extending the sequential maturation roadmap beyond 'independent researcher' (2028) into full-domain superintelligence. Sam Altman	AI	33%
0.57	Will New Glenn 7x2 ever fly again?(market prob: 94%)	manifold 2026-05-29	241_029 Humanoid robot assembly of rockets is beyond current robots for a long time Eric Schmidt	Robotics	28%
0.57	Will Project Hail Mary finish the year as the highest rated 2026 cinematic release on Letterboxd?(market prob: 37%)	manifold 2026-05-28	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.57	Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-27	231_016 Permissionless agent activity is imminent; Claude-style approval prompts will go away. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	How many people will end up with a NSBA4 Combine Score equal to 15	manifold 2026-05-27	240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.57	Will "The Odyssey" earn more than $120M in domestic gross earnings (in US dollars) during their opening weekend?(market prob: 36%)	manifold 2026-05-25	247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis	AI	42%
0.57	Nash Pit, Manifest 2026: What choice will Contestant A make?	manifold 2026-05-24	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Nash Pit, Manifest 2026: What choice will Contestant A make?	manifold 2026-05-24	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Who will be the next Democratic candidate for 2028?	manifold 2026-05-31	CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang	Semis	87%
0.57	NBA Finals MVP 2026?	manifold 2026-05-31	COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.57	Will "Lighthaven East - A Feasibility Study" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-01	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.57	2026 US Senate Election: will the party of the winner of this state's senate seat go on to win senate control?	manifold 2026-06-01	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Norway Chess 2026 Round 10: Magnus Carlsen (W) vs Gukesh Dommaraju (B)	manifold 2026-05-31	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Free Mana Part 2:Resolves All Options to Yes (You can Add Answer in alphabetical form)	manifold 2026-06-02	239_006 AI will solve everything including longevity Elon Musk	AI	45%
0.57	Will Solana close below $76 at any day in June?(market prob: 58%)	manifold 2026-06-01	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Will Tetra see the solar eclipse of August 12, 2026 in the path of totality?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-06-03	242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis	Space	56%
0.57	will we (husband + me) move back to our hometown within 3 years?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-06-03	241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade Peter Diamandis	AI	36%
0.57	Will Hack Club Stardance add a gambling/feature that resembles probability-based games(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-06-04	240_041 Consumer killer app tying compute to happiness must be invented within the next year Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	Resolves to Square root of a random number between 1-10,000(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-06-04	246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Will there be a complete, professional looking comic book adaptation of HPMOR, before 2029?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-06-04	234_025 Rent-a-human meat puppet model may be obsoleted by humanoid robots Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	35%
0.57	Will there be a complete, professional looking comic book adaptation of HPMOR, before 2029?(market prob: 67%)	manifold 2026-06-04	240_019 Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 754 : Suggest the best expression(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-06-05	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Portugal win the VM in football(market prob: 10%)	manifold 2026-06-05	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Will iran and usa stop the war permanent on 31.juni(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-05	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.57	Best Out-of-Context Quote at LessOnline 2026	manifold 2026-06-05	232_019 AI cannot be stopped; there's no mechanism to pause it. Ben Horowitz	AI	51%
0.57	F1: SINGAPORE 🇸🇬 GP 2026 WINNER 🏎️	manifold 2026-06-07	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Do you like 42% odds?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-06-06	242_028 AI could automate 25% of US work hours Goldman Sachs	Labor/Jobs	39%
0.57	Will Demis Hassabis also win a Nobel Prize in Medicine?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-06-08	ROB_003 AI will allow humanity to complete the next 25 years of scientific discovery in just 5 years — effectively bringing 2050-era science to 2030. Already manifesting in resolution of long-standing mathematical proofs (e.g. Erdős problems) via advanced reas... Kevin Weil	AI	45%
0.57	🇸🇦KSA vs 🇺🇾URY [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	🇧🇪BEL vs 🇪🇬EGY [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	🇪🇸ESP vs 🇨🇻CPV [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	🇸🇪SWE vs 🇹🇳TUN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	🇨🇮CIV vs 🇪🇨ECU [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	🇳🇱NED vs 🇯🇵JPN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	🇩🇪GER vs 🇨🇼CUW [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	🇦🇺AUS vs 🇹🇷TUR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	🇭🇹HAI vs 🇬🇧SCO [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	🇧🇷BRA vs 🇲🇦MAR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	🇶🇦QAT vs 🇨🇭SUI [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	🇺🇸USA vs 🇵🇾PAR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	🇨🇦CAN vs 🇧🇦BIH [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	🇲🇽MEX vs 🇿🇦RSA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.56	Will Derek Thompson run for office by EOY 2030?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-04-28	CMQ_022 AGI will arrive within a decade (by 2030) — driven primarily by massive raw compute deployment and neural-network scaling. Elon Musk	AI	34%
0.56	Which flavour will win the Meridian Huel Championship Bracket?	manifold 2026-04-28	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.56	Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-04-28	244_024 Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.56	Will the 2026 Kentucky Derby have a close finish?(market prob: 34%)	manifold 2026-04-27	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.56	Will there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-27	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.56	Which team will win Marble League 2026?	manifold 2026-04-26	SEM_032 15% probability that AI will solve a Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problem (likely Navier-Stokes) by end of 2026. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Mathematics	15%
0.56	LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-04-26	SPC_023 Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-c... Sam Altman	AI	18%
0.56	What will my mathcounts state score be?	manifold 2026-04-26	238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	61%
0.56	Will "Your Supplies Probably Won't Be Stolen in a D..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-04-23	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.56	Will "Considerations around career costs of politic..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-27	235_005 AI capability will grow 100x this year in raw parameter count as lower bound. Dave Blundin	AI	49%
0.56	If this person is leader of the Lib Dems going into the next UK general election, will the Economist endorse Lib Dems?	manifold 2026-05-01	239_018 Universal High Income will be implemented Elon Musk	Macro/Economy	44%
0.56	Which Party will win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election	manifold 2026-05-01	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	35%
0.56	What will be the outcome of the controversy concerning R. F. Kuang's Taipei Story ARC?	manifold 2026-05-04	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.56	Will Guinea's bauxite exports for calendar year 2027 exceed 140 million tonnes?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-04	CMQ_007 Anthropic corporate revenue will reach trillions of dollars before 2030. Dario Amodei	AI	41%
0.56	Will I place last in Masters Season 37?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-04	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	This market resolves to what the opposite of the different one (resolves at the opposite as me) Calendar Rotation Year!(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-05-04	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.56	Will Brightline shut down its Florida operations by the end of this year?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	229_002 Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. Brett Adcock	Robotics	56%
0.56	Will 100 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-05-05	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-06	244_024 Hopes society will adjust as work is augmented and new work shows up Dara Khosrowshahi	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.56	Will this market appear on a mug?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-06	231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin	AI	44%
0.56	Will a full-scale military conflict between the US/Israel and Iran resume by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-05	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.56	Will I solve a TSTST problem with MMP?(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-05-04	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.56	Will abhishaike mahajan ever win the nobel prize?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	234_007 Kevin Weil aims for next 100 Nobel Prizes to be issued in partnership with AI Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.56	Will anyone trick me into sending them exactly M$1000 via managram? [Convince the Machine #10](market prob: 18%)	manifold 2026-05-06	247_027 Frontier AI spend will reach order of $1 trillion per year on a single vendor Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.56	test-a(market prob: 42%)	manifold 2026-05-08	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.56	Will I’ll from steam will come out before ps6?	manifold 2026-05-10	242_008 Dyson sphere will come before any fusion reactor is licensed Dave Blundin	Energy	40%
0.56	Will Scott Bessent leave the position of Secretary of Treasury by the end of 2027?(market prob: 72%)	manifold 2026-05-11	SPC_028 Ismail and Blundin forecast widespread corporate collapses in 2025-2026 for traditional institutions failing to integrate agentic models — massive job displacement of over 1.1 million knowledge workers as AI automates their roles. Salim Ismail	Labor/Jobs	37%
0.56	Last confirmed case of the Andes virus (hantavirus) linked to MV Hondius outbreak	manifold 2026-05-12	COD_BIO_005 Colossal adds at least one more de-extinction species to active embryo-transfer pipeline by end 2028 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	47%
0.56	Will the Trump-branded Trump Mobile Phone actually exist before the next Presidential election?(market prob: 94%)	manifold 2026-05-12	SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg	Semis/Geopolitics	24%
0.56	Will Austria finish in the top 10 of the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-05-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Will there be a red card in the 2026 UEFA Champions League final?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-05-14	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-16	247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.56	Will Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-16	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.56	Will Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?(market prob: 44%)	manifold 2026-05-16	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.56	Will the US announce an arms sale to Taiwan of more than $10 billion dollars value between May and September 2026?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-16	CMQ_018 By 2027-2028, the strategic value of superintelligence + impossible trillion-dollar infrastructure cost will trigger government consolidation of AGI development — 'The Project'. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Geopolitics	35%
0.56	What gender should Terminator2 have? [Convince the Machine #12]	manifold 2026-05-14	229_019 Humanoids will dominate the plurality of all robots; other form factors will be niche. Brett Adcock	Robotics	30%
0.56	Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2028?	manifold 2026-05-18	AUT_022 2026 is the definitive 'inflection year' for Autonomous Vehicles — forecasting 33 distinct consumer AV launches and expansion of AV services into 9 new major US cities; China will aggressively lead global adoption, accounting for half the global smart-... Morgan Stanley	Auto/Transport	50%
0.56	Will the 2026 Fifa World Cup winner, draw or lose in the group stage?(market prob: 50%)	manifold 2026-05-17	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	By how much will the Democrats beat the GOP in the 2026 Massachusetts Governor’s Race?	manifold 2026-05-19	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.56	F1 2026 Monaco Grand Prix Pole Position	manifold 2026-05-30	CMQ_053 Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-labor shortages in automotive manufacturing. Brett Adcock	Robotics	55%
0.56	Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-05-30	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.56	When will the next MLB CBA be signed	manifold 2026-05-29	229_002 Figure will scale out robots in industrial/commercial workforce in 2026 via its signed customers. Brett Adcock	Robotics	56%
0.56	If Felix Gall signs for Lidl Trek for the 2027 season, will he win at least 1 UCI race for Lidl Trek before 2030?(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-05-28	S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path	agi_general_capability	35%
0.56	Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-27	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.56	Who will win Washington’s 9th house election in 2026?	manifold 2026-05-26	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.56	New Zealand Election 2nd Place (Polymarket)	manifold 2026-05-25	247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	46%
0.56	A year on to the day, will I consider the results of the Albertan Secession Referendum having been honoured?(market prob: 80%)	manifold 2026-05-25	231_054 Uncertain whether people will have any purpose at all a year from today. Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.56	Rcb vs gt who is win(market prob: 99%)	manifold 2026-05-31	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.56	UEFA Champions League 2026/27 winner	manifold 2026-05-31	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.56	What will be the Largest margin of victory/goal differential in a single game during the 2026 edition of the World Cup?	manifold 2026-05-31	FUT_022 Massive resurgence in North American industrialization 2026-2031 driven by geographic + demographic insulation of United States + Mexico — permanent systemic withdrawal from trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic economic dependencies; aggressive 'de-risking... Peter Zeihan	Macro/Economy	72%
0.56	Free Mana Part 2:Resolves All Options to Yes (You can Add Answer in alphabetical form)	manifold 2026-06-02	248_050 Opus 4.7 removes manual dials; prompts become the new hyperparameters. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	45%
0.56	What is true about the absence of Rep. Thomas Kean Jr. (Add Answers)	manifold 2026-06-01	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.56	will we (husband + me) move back to our hometown within 3 years?(market prob: 57%)	manifold 2026-06-03	238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	78%
0.56	Free Lottery (Faber–Jackson relation)(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.56	Tom Steyer beats Xavier Becerra in California governor election? n/a if not matchup(market prob: 41%)	manifold 2026-06-03	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.56	FIFA World Cup (2026) Team Goals	manifold 2026-06-06	246_020 China will land on moon by 2030 (credible competitive mission). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	32%
0.56	Will Tetra's eclipse hotel booking stop existing within the week?(market prob: 33%)	manifold 2026-06-03	240_001 NVIDIA to reach at least $1 trillion in bookings/revenue through 2027 Jensen Huang	Markets/Stocks	78%
0.56	Free Lottery (expansion of universe)(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-06-08	238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail	Macro/Economy	33%
0.56	Free Lottery (Monster black hole)(market prob: 84%)	manifold 2026-04-29	238_058 Abundance X-Prize to deliver housing, food, energy, connectivity for $250/month in 6-7 years Salim Ismail	Macro/Economy	33%
0.56	Will there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026?(market prob: 15%)	manifold 2026-04-27	238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque	Energy	45%
0.56	Will Israel attack Iraq in 2030?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-04-26	CMQ_012 AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in 2027 triggers post-AGI intelligence explosion. Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	41%
0.56	Correspondents Association dinner incident prop bets	manifold 2026-04-26	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.56	Correspondents Association dinner incident prop bets	manifold 2026-04-26	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.56	Will Eliezer Yudkowsky actually debate @47fucb4r8c69323?(market prob: 93%)	manifold 2026-04-24	235_023 Eric Schmidt said AI will require 100 gigawatts by 2029, called it a crisis. Eric Schmidt	Energy	48%
0.56	If Putin attends the G20 summit in 2026, will any of the listed leader not attend?	manifold 2026-04-24	FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer	Geopolitics	62%
0.56	What will be the rating of the Enid Oklahoma Tornado (2026)	manifold 2026-04-24	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.56	What will be the rating of the Enid Oklahoma Tornado (2026)	manifold 2026-04-24	248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	42%
0.56	Will Prabowo Subianto be re-elected to a second term in the 2029 Indonesian Presidential Election?(market prob: 69%)	manifold 2026-05-01	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.56	Will I stay in masters this season?(market prob: 89%)	manifold 2026-05-03	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.56	Will Guinea's bauxite exports for calendar year 2027 exceed 140 million tonnes?(market prob: 73%)	manifold 2026-05-04	247_007 Anthropic ARR will reach $1 trillion by end of 2027 Peter Diamandis	AI	50%
0.56	Will I place last in Masters Season 37?(market prob: 27%)	manifold 2026-05-04	236_040 CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.56	Will Brightline shut down its Florida operations by the end of this year?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	236_040 CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.56	Will Brightline shut down its Florida operations by the end of this year?(market prob: 28%)	manifold 2026-05-04	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.56	Who will win the IN-04 Republican primary?	manifold 2026-05-05	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.56	Will "Taking woo seriously but not literally" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-05-07	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	55%
0.56	How many weeks will the Strait of Hormuz remain closed?	manifold 2026-05-07	FUT_002 Mean expert estimate for AGI collapsed from 50-year horizon to ~5 years over a 4-year window leading to mid-2020s — placing expected AGI arrival firmly in 2029-2031 window per Metaculus + 80000 Hours aggregate tracking; quantitative forecasters now ali... Superforecaster Community	AI	40%
0.56	Will https://vivarium.sh/ still exist by EOY2028(market prob: 24%)	manifold 2026-05-07	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.56	Will my dahlia tuber sprout?(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-11	246_021 GPT-5.5 Spud will be released imminently (within days). Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	38%
0.56	test-b(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-08	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%