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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-12-22 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2025-12-19 | 238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 78% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.55 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup?(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-03-17 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-11 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2023-02-02 | CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | ||
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.55 | Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Spurs (-8.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.55 | Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-03 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA220529: BUPROPION HYDROCHLORIDE (BUPROPION HYDROCHLORIDE) — YICHANG HUMANWELL | fda 2026-05-04 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | |
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-13 | SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 243_006 Autonomous fleets will move to asset-light model with financial owners like Blackstone owning fleets Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 48% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-13 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-13 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Shifters vs Galions - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Shifters vs Galions - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Pistons vs. Cavaliers(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque | Markets/Stocks | 31% | |
| 0.55 | Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: PlayTime vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-12 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-14 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-14 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 61% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA215826: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — ZYDUS PHARMS | fda 2026-05-06 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA203103: PROPRANOLOL HYDROCHLORIDE (PROPRANOLOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — IPCA LABS LTD | fda 2026-05-01 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | FDA NDA203923: SODIUM THIOSULFATE (SODIUM THIOSULFATE) — HOPE PHARMS | fda 2026-05-07 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | github_release 2025-10-01 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 238_020 Math field is 'cooked' — AI will solve research-level mathematics (first open hard math problem imminently) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 61% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | New York Yankees vs. New York Mets(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: GTZ Esports vs Francesinhas (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 41% | |
| 0.55 | LIRR strike during morning rush hour Monday May 18?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-05-15 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-15 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | |
| 0.55 | Spurs vs. Thunder(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will Thomas Massie say Trump should be impeached before the end of 2026?(market prob: 18%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.55 | FDA BLA125554: OPDIVO (NIVOLUMAB) — BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB | fda 2026-05-12 | TK13 Biotech/Synbio Safety Event | — | 15% | |
| 0.55 | Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-05-17 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | |
| 0.55 | Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-08-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-08-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Iran closes its airspace by June 30?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the 2026 Fifa World Cup winner, draw or lose in the group stage?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | SEM_016 Huawei will emerge as the unexpected victor in the 2026 chip war — not via immediate capacity but via forced supply-chain resilience. David Friedberg | Semis/Geopolitics | 24% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-18 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 52% | ||
| 0.55 | LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 240_056 Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) Peter Diamandis | AI | 54% | |
| 0.55 | Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Luka Pavlovic vs Harry Wendelken(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-19 | 230_021 Figure and Tesla will make millions, then billions of robots. Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-19 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-19 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe(market prob: 28%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Little Rock: Michael Mmoh vs Justin Boulais(market prob: 70%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Resolves to Square root of a random number between 1-10,000(market prob: 68%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Will Vladimir Putin's approval rating decrease in June 2026?(market prob: 57%) | manifold 2026-05-29 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.55 | LessOnline 2027 will use brand new event software(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-05-28 | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. Dario Amodei | AI | 77% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 245_038 People buying clones of their dogs is a profitable ongoing consumer business (will persist) Ben Lamm | Consumer | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-28 | 233_003 Any student is capable of reaching 99th percentile in reading, writing, math, and science with mastery-based tutoring. MacKenzie Price | Education | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-27 | 243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 47% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-27 | AI_004 AI will be 'smarter than the smartest human' by 2026, driven by fully automated recursive self-improvement loops compounding cognitive gains without human intervention. Elon Musk | AI | 13% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-26 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Philipp K. find a real girlfriend in the next 12 months?(market prob: 83%) | manifold 2026-05-25 | 234_051 Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 38% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-24 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-29 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 230_031 We are in an era of domain collapse — AlphaFold pattern will repeat across many fields starting now. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA206194: IRBESARTAN (IRBESARTAN) — HISUN PHARM HANGZHOU | fda 2026-05-15 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | FDA NDA008085: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — STRIDES PHARMA INTL | fda 2026-05-27 | IND_012 NVIDIA BioNeMo platform + Evo 2 model fundamentally compresses a century of biology into a decade — Evo 2 achieves 90% accuracy in BRCA1 predictions; AI models will seamlessly transition generated biological designs into practical, synthesized clinical... Jensen Huang | Biotech/Longevity | 68% | |
| 0.55 | FDA NDA219878: BAXFENDY (BAXDROSTAT) — ASTRAZENECA AB | fda 2026-05-15 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA215217: LEVALBUTEROL HYDROCHLORIDE (LEVALBUTEROL HYDROCHLORIDE) — NEPHRON | fda 2026-05-26 | IND_003 Latency of medical truth actively collapsing — genomic sequencing for newborns in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) reduced to a 4-hour window, effectively moving diagnostics from 'wait and see' paradigm to real-time intervention; convergence of ph... Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | |
| 0.55 | Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Kilian Feldbausch(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-31 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | ||
| 0.55 | Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Olimpia Milano(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Iran closes its airspace by June 15?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will the Spurs or Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals(market prob: 46%) | manifold 2026-05-31 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-31 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.55 | Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Michele Ribecai(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community | AI | 48% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.55 | Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-15 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.55 | Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: Estar Backs vs TeamDk - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-01 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-01 | 244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-01 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA217027: DEXTROAMP SACCHARATE, AMP ASPARTATE, DEXTROAMP SULFATE AND AMP SULFATE (AMPHETAMINE ASPARTATE) — GRANULES | fda 2026-05-20 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA217027: DEXTROAMP SACCHARATE, AMP ASPARTATE, DEXTROAMP SULFATE AND AMP SULFATE (AMPHETAMINE ASPARTATE) — GRANULES | fda 2026-05-20 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | FDA NDA204114: MEKINIST (TRAMETINIB DIMETHYL SULFOXIDE) — NOVARTIS | fda 2026-05-07 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.55 | github_release 2021-07-21 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2021-06-17 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2021-06-08 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2020-05-08 | 229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 69% | ||
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Am I a brain in a vat?(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-01 | 238_043 A mouse will have a full brain uploaded in years, not decades; first human whole-brain emulation also years away Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 42% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-02 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA219346: ANDA219346 ((unspecified)) — SANDOZ INC | fda 2026-05-12 | COD_TECH_001 A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps Codex Research Pack | Semis | 50% | |
| 0.55 | github_release 2021-06-30 | CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027 | macro_recession | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-03 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-03 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-03 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA211020: BUPROPION HYDROCHLORIDE (BUPROPION HYDROCHLORIDE) — GRAVITI PHARMS | fda 2026-05-29 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | FDA BLA761108: ULTOMIRIS (RAVULIZUMAB-CWVZ) — ALEXION PHARM | fda 2026-06-01 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31?(market prob: 5%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Resolves to Square root of a random number between 1-10,000(market prob: 67%) | manifold 2026-06-04 | 248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-04 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-04 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5)(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 244_033 Uber will take big bets on adjacent fields, some will fail Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 51% | |
| 0.55 | Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will I get accepted to the August Iliad Intensive?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | FUT_001 Algorithmic systems (LLMs) will match the accuracy of the world's most elite human superforecasters by November 2026 per ForecastBench linear-extrapolation of current learning curves; 95% CI stretches Dec 2025 to Jan 2028. Validation metric: LLMs achie... Superforecaster Community | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy | AI | 87% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | FUT_021 Uncontrolled recursive self-improvement by AGI requires vast uninterrupted physical infrastructure, flawless power grids, perfect global supply chains for advanced semiconductors. In Zeihan-Bremmer world (severe demographic labor shortages, fragmented ... Superforecaster Community | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 232_050 Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 232_050 Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | INF_072 There is approximately a 50/50 chance that simply scaling existing methodologies (transformer architecture + more data + more compute) will be enough to reach AGI — though "nowhere near" human-level AGI currently. Demis Hassabis | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 235_040 Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 26% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA NDA209805: STEGLUJAN (ERTUGLIFLOZIN) — MSD SUB MERCK | fda 2026-06-03 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA077802: OXCARBAZEPINE (OXCARBAZEPINE) — GLENMARK PHARMS LTD | fda 2026-05-28 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA217085: ERIBULIN MESYLATE (ERIBULIN MESYLATE) — NATCO | fda 2026-06-01 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA220465: ANDA220465 ((unspecified)) — SANDOZ INC | fda 2026-05-22 | INF_009 The first multi-behavior brain-organoid upload is imminent — wetware ('brain organoid') computing has progressed from Pong (2021) to Doom-class simulators (2025), and offers a pathway out of silicon thermal limits at ~20W per brain-equivalent compute. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 17% | |
| 0.55 | github_release 2025-04-07 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.55 | Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | CMQ_040 AI-driven demand has triggered an 'unprecedented supercycle' for dominant global memory suppliers (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron). Samsung executives | Semis/Memory | 62% | |
| 0.55 | Will Iran Play in the World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 62% | |
| 0.55 | Will Iran Play in the World Cup?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-06 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-06 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-05 | SEM_039 Block unveiled proprietary Bitcoin mining ASIC at 709 Terahashes/second (TH/s) — leading indicator for eventual AI inference ASIC trajectory. Jack Dorsey | Semis/ASICs | 83% | ||
| 0.55 | Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Iran closes its airspace by July 31?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-07 | S_MARS_2028 Mars uncrewed: 2028 transfer window (most likely first attempt) | mars_uncrewed_landing | 50% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Will someone managram me 1k mana(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 246_031 Next OpenClaw moment will turn $30B ARR into $1T ARR with agents. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-08 | 244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Amir Albazi be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.55 | Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.55 | T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google | AI | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Will Tyreek Hill play for the Baltimore Ravens next?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-16 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Israel closes its airspace by June 11?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 246_015 Elon will launch Starship toward Mars this year (2026, cited from Elon). Elon Musk | Space | 36% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | ......MART.......(market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi | Consumer | 51% | |
| 0.55 | ......MART.......(market prob: 97%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup final be decided by penalties?(market prob: 31%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.55 | Will England reach the semi-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 49%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-08 | 234_017 OpenAI codex lead predicts current coding agents will seem primitive in 10 weeks OpenAI Codex Lead | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 23% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA219604: DALBAVANCIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DALBAVANCIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — BE PHARMS | fda 2026-06-04 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA040385: TREXALL (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — BARR | fda 2026-05-27 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 24% | |
| 0.55 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_006 Organizations must practice 'creative destruction on purpose' 2026-2031: deliberately dismantle legacy operations before lateral multi-domain convergence renders them obsolete. Traditional technology hype cycle rejected; future no longer arrives one tr... Amy Webb | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-08 | 240_012 Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA211187: MACITENTAN (MACITENTAN) — TEVA PHARMS USA INC | fda 2026-06-08 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.55 | github_release 2017-12-02 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | |
| 0.55 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.55 | Will D.K. Metcalf be traded?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-02-26 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-11 | 248_007 We will see an explosion of AI-driven pop-up shops, retail venues, and malls orchestrated by AI. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 37% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-10 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-10 | 242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin | AI/Architecture | 65% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 247_037 Quantum computing will not break Bitcoin (Mike Saylor position) Michael Saylor | Crypto | 54% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA217734: PHYTONADIONE (PHYTONADIONE) — AMNEAL | fda 2026-06-01 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | Will Christopher Nolan have a new film release in 2027 or 2028?(market prob: 47%) | manifold 2026-06-12 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA078232: LOSARTAN POTASSIUM (LOSARTAN POTASSIUM) — LUPIN LTD | fda 2026-06-08 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-13 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2018-06-15 | 236_028 AI chatbot/AI romance trend growing unfortunately Andrew Yang | Consumer | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 231_040 Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 38% | |
| 0.55 | HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | CMQ_034 HBM will remain in structural shortage through at least 2027 — shortage extends multi-year despite aggressive fab expansion. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 84% | |
| 0.55 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | FUT_015 Era of 'multipolarity without multilateralism' defining 2026-2031 per Eurasia Group + WEF Global Risks Report — power highly distributed among regional hegemons but international cooperation mechanisms (UN, WTO) functionally collapsed. Exacerbated by '... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 62% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-14 | INF_057 Helion will scale to 50 gigawatts of fusion-generated power to OpenAI by 2035 — equivalent to more than 7x Grand Coulee Dam output and roughly 1,000 Helion 50-MW reactors. Sam Altman | Energy | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-15 | 244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.55 | Will Madina Okot win the 2026 WNBA Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 75%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 59%) | manifold 2026-06-16 | 237_008 App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. Alex Finn | Consumer | 41% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 235_018 Single-person conglomerates with agents running businesses will be common in ~5 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | Labor/Jobs | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-16 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-16 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | 248_031 Enhanced Games world records will accelerate on a scaling-law-style trajectory year over year. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-14 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.55 | Will anything be done about the market spam and referral fraud?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 242_055 Activist investing will be disrupted by AI writing open letters to public firms Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 34% | |
| 0.55 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028 | compute_scale | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 31?(market prob: 79%) | manifold 2026-06-18 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-18 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-17 | 244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-17 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-06-17 | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | 8% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | 241_038 Chinese AI strategy is edge computing focused vs US AGI/ASI centered Eric Schmidt | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.55 | Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-06-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5)(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-02-19 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 238_072 Small-to-large model scaling time has collapsed from 6-12 months to 6 days Emad Mostaque | AI | 74% | ||
| 0.55 | Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | FUT_012 Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... Ramez Naam | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan?(market prob: 6%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.55 | Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 231_040 Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 38% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Austria?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Curaçao?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 234_001 India will be the next giant on the rise while China is on the decline Salim Ismail | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | Free Lottery (subterranean laboratories.)(market prob: 5%) | manifold 2026-06-20 | 238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil | AI | 38% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-19 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Keir Starmer out before July? (Tumbles Judgement)(market prob: 95%) | manifold 2026-06-21 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | |
| 0.55 | Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027 | macro_recession | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A(market prob: 55%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.55 | Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Erling Haaland: 1+ goals(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 231_025 Every frontier lab will launch 24/7 agent offerings (table stakes). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 238_023 Neural nets will be 100x bigger at end of 2026 than at beginning (already in the bag) Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.55 | Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Jiri Lehecka(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-03-23 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-03-23 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. Peter Diamandis | Space | 42% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-03-26 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-29 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | ||
| 0.55 | LoL: Karmine Corp vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council by April 30, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | FUT_025 Runaway economic feedback loop 2026-2031: cheaper renewable energy incentivizes wider adoption, increases global manufacturing volumes, drives prices down further along Wright's curve. Political independence means energy transition continues regardless... Ramez Naam | Energy | 52% | |
| 0.55 | Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-08 | 229_037 With humanoids, Greenland mineral extraction becomes viable even though Europeans at Davos say it's impossible. Peter Diamandis | Energy | 21% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-28 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the winner of the 2026 Kentucky Derby finish in under 2:02.00?(market prob: 38%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 232_022 Triple-digit GDP growth is possible in the next 5 years due to AI. Ben Horowitz | Macro/Economy | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-04-24 | 235_022 US will add a record 86 gigawatts of utility-scale capacity this coming year. Peter Diamandis | Energy | 53% | ||
| 0.55 | LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 37% | |
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 240_043 CS placements collapsed from 89% to 19% over 3 years; similar collapse coming for other professions Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 232_012 US-China AI situation about to get more complicated regarding open source models and secrets. Ben Horowitz | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 233_008 Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first. Joe Liemandt | Education | 32% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.55 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 248_001 Apple will soon pit Amazon (Global Star) against SpaceX Starlink as dual satellite vendors. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | |
| 0.55 | Penalty shootout in champions league semi final? 2025/2026 season(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-04-30 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Will i get off at least one waitlist, (promys, ross, sumac)(market prob: 63%) | manifold 2026-04-25 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-04-30 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 61% | ||
| 0.55 | Saint-Malo: Yue Yuan vs Anna Blinkova(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Abidjan 2: Niels Visker vs Florent Bax(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-01 | FUT_014 'US political revolution' ranked #1 tier global risk 2026+ per Eurasia Group — internal partisan bifurcation within United States has moved well beyond traditional electoral friction into systemic institutional paralysis; federal government increasingl... Ian Bremmer | Geopolitics | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-01 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-01 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 86%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Cloud9 vs Dignitas - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: LYON vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.55 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Iran closes its airspace by May 31st?(market prob: 29%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Spread: Spurs (-12.5)(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.55 | Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-04 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | Sam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030(market prob: 11%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis | AI | 38% | |
| 0.55 | Hasan Piker a guest on Jimmy Kimmel Live! In 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 237_028 Abundance Summit will live-stream Eric Schmidt, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, and a WTF Moonshot podcast this year. Peter Diamandis | Media/Ads | 78% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | COD_AI_002 At least one 1 GW Vera Rubin frontier-training cluster reaches deployment by Q1 2027 Codex Research Pack | AI/Compute | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.55 | Santos: Miguel Tobon vs Eduardo Ribeiro(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | FUT_017 Intersection of media, society, and commerce 2026-2031 will require organizations to completely abandon rigid legacy planning in favor of hyper-adaptable near-future preparations — traditional 10-year strategic plans obsolete as multi-domain convergenc... Gerd Leonhard | Media/Ads | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Lakers vs. Thunder(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs INTZ e-Sports - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: NeverPlay vs Pitstop crew - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | 240_026 Elon's combined empire (SpaceX/xAI/Tesla/Optimus/Terrafab/orbital DCs) will be a $100T company Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | AI_028 Decentralized offline messaging via Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) mesh networks — exemplified by Dorsey's launch of Bitchat — will become critical infrastructure for verifiable human communication as the internet is flooded with synthetic content and deep... Jack Dorsey | Crypto | 28% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA NDA217779: RYTELO (IMETELSTAT SODIUM) — GERON | fda 2026-04-14 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA212773: IMATINIB MESYLATE (IMATINIB MESYLATE) — EUGIA PHARMA | fda 2026-04-06 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | github_release 2025-09-29 | CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn | AI/Compute | 59% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2020-05-30 | 240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin | AI | 46% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2020-10-22 | 241_013 Agents from incompatible vendors combined will produce unpredictable effects Eric Schmidt | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2020-06-12 | CYB_022 Supply-chain attacks targeting widely utilized open-source AI packages — exemplified by documented attacks on the LiteLLM framework — represent extreme systemic risk: a single compromised foundational code repository instantly and autonomously infects ... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 76% | ||
| 0.55 | Iran closes its airspace by May 7?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.55 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 59%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | SEM_002 By 2025-2026, AI model outputs will outpace the cognitive capabilities of college graduates (driven by hundreds of millions of GPUs). Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 56% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA220568: GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE (GLYCEROL PHENYLBUTYRATE) — NAVINTA LLC | fda 2026-04-23 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA074712: LACTULOSE (LACTULOSE) — CUMBERLAND PHARMS | fda 2026-04-14 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA091291: LEVETIRACETAM (LEVETIRACETAM) — CHARTWELL RX | fda 2026-04-09 | CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis | AI | 60% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA208055: LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE (LURASIDONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — TORRENT | fda 2026-04-13 | 247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 55% | |
| 0.55 | FDA NDA211243: SPRAVATO (ESKETAMINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — JANSSEN PHARMS | fda 2026-04-13 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Bubliki vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 234_004 Mistral will emerge as a vertically integrated European OpenAI Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA206387: ALENDRONATE SODIUM (ALENDRONATE SODIUM) — IPCA LABS LTD | fda 2026-04-15 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA078324: ESTRADIOL AND NORETHINDRONE ACETATE (ESTRADIOL) — BRECKENRIDGE PHARM | fda 2026-04-21 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA214055: SELEXIPAG (SELEXIPAG) — RK PHARMA | fda 2026-04-16 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | github_release 2022-06-06 | S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026 | robotaxi_deployment | 40% | ||
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 238_040 Google may announce a locally hosted Gemma-type model at WWDC in June 2026 for Apple OS Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.55 | UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-05 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 59% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 23% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 245_021 Engineered all-male screworms released via gene drive will cause species die-off over time Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA NDA021342: LEVO-T (LEVOTHYROXINE SODIUM) — CEDIPROF INC | fda 2026-05-04 | 245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA219941: MIRABEGRON (MIRABEGRON) — DEVA HOLDING AS | fda 2026-05-01 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.55 | FDA BLA761184: NGENLA (SOMATROGON-GHLA) — PFIZER IRELAND PHARMACEUTICALS | fda 2026-04-29 | AI_031 AGI will be defined by its ability to autonomously formulate novel scientific hypotheses — effectively solving '100 years of biology' in a fraction of the historical time required, via continuous hypothesis-generation and experimental iteration. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 51% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | |
| 0.55 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Belinda Bencic vs Anna Kalinskaya(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims)(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-22 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.55 | Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-06 | 238_049 Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-09 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | ||
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.55 | Oeiras 4: Billy Harris vs Petr Brunclik(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup?(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-03-17 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-11 | 234_050 Open-source maintainers will be overwhelmed by AI-discovered software vulnerabilities Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.55 | github_release 2022-12-27 | CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.55 | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B(market prob: 94%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.55 | Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros(market prob: 65%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics(market prob: 43%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_RECESSION_2027 NBER recession declared 2027 | macro_recession | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.55 | Zagreb: Thiago Monteiro vs Andres Andrade(market prob: 64%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-11 | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 48% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA213603: GABAPENTIN (GABAPENTIN) — ZHEJIANG YONGTAI | fda 2026-05-01 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.55 | Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?(market prob: 63%) | polymarket 2025-12-01 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.55 | Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-13 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack | Space | 22% | |
| 0.55 | Golden Knights vs. Ducks(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs(market prob: 69%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-14 | S_AGI_MID_2029 AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 path | agi_general_capability | 35% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA217191: HYDROCORTISONE SODIUM SUCCINATE (HYDROCORTISONE SODIUM SUCCINATE) — ZYDUS PHARMS | fda 2026-05-07 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA204982: PHENTERMINE HYDROCHLORIDE AND TOPIRAMATE (PHENTERMINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — ACTAVIS LABS FL INC | fda 2026-05-01 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | FDA NDA208510: VYVANSE (LISDEXAMFETAMINE DIMESYLATE) — TAKEDA PHARMS USA | fda 2026-04-23 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA075710: ALENDRONATE SODIUM (ALENDRONATE SODIUM) — IMPAX LABS INC | fda 2026-04-23 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.55 | Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | CYB_028 The 2024-2026 AI arms race directly parallels the hyper-speculative early-1990s dot-com bubble and subsequent search-engine wars — while underlying technology is transformative, the vast majority of highly-valued competitors and heavily-funded startups... Mark Cuban | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.55 | Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-15 | AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 16% | ||
| 0.55 | edgar_8k 2026-05-15 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.55 | FDA NDA206829: ZERBAXA (CEFTOLOZANE SULFATE) — CUBIST PHARMS LLC | fda 2026-05-12 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.55 | FDA ANDA220717: ZOLPIDEM TARTRATE (ZOLPIDEM TARTRATE) — UMEDICA LABS PVT | fda 2026-05-12 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.55 | Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.55 | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-09-30 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.55 | Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.55 | Will Pauline Hanson meet Donald Trump face-to-face in 2026?(market prob: 15%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_016 Figure CEO Brett Adcock will appear at Abundance Summit next year (2027) with a Figure robot for Peter Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 45% | |
| 0.55 | github_release 2020-11-18 | AI_010 The 2026 development landscape has entered the 'Slopacolypse' — AI writes the vast majority of new code, developer manual-coding skills atrophy, and engineering transitions from syntax-writing to high-level architectural prompting and 'vibe coding'. Andrej Karpathy | AI | 90% | ||
| 0.55 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 34%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.55 | On Jan 1, 2028, will it be legal to boil a lobster alive in Switzerland?(market prob: 10%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | |
| 0.55 | USA plays Iran at the 2026 World Cup(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-17 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.55 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Championship?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.55 | Bengaluru 3: Karan Singh vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | ||
| 0.55 | manifold 2026-05-18 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | ||
| 0.55 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.55 | LoL: DOCISK vs devils.one (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.55 | New fish species (market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% |