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| Sim | Doc | Source | Pred | Domain | Prior | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-09 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-09 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-09 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | ROB_025 Genomic prediction will be entirely revolutionized by high-throughput phenotyping — utilizing swarms of drones and physical robots to collect orders of magnitude more trait information than historically possible by human scientists; Bayesian optimizati... Peter Dannenberg | Biotech/Longevity | 70% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | 232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | 230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA219604: DALBAVANCIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DALBAVANCIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — BE PHARMS | fda 2026-06-04 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-01-02 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-03-30 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-10 | S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff | asi_recursive_self_improvement | 60% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Physics | 56% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2022-08-23 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | 238_036 Manus (bought by Meta for $2B) will become Meta's agent layer inside WhatsApp, operating on behalf of advertisers Emad Mostaque | Media/Ads | 35% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 91%) | polymarket 2026-06-11 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.56 | President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | |
| 0.56 | Will there be a large-scale riot in NYC after the NBA finals?(market prob: 21%) | manifold 2026-06-11 | 230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-11 | COD_AI_002 At least one 1 GW Vera Rubin frontier-training cluster reaches deployment by Q1 2027 Codex Research Pack | AI/Compute | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-11 | CMQ_013 A 5-OOM (100,000x) effective-compute leap will occur between 2024-2027 — bridging GPT-4 high-schooler to fully automated AI researcher. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-10 | 242_006 Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output Peter Diamandis | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | AUT_017 Defining 2023-2026 shift: maturation of 'Agentic AI' via heavy fine-tuning of pre-trained LLMs using advanced reinforcement learning techniques — single foundational models seamlessly handling diverse complex tasks (market analysis, software engineerin... Jimmy Ba | AI | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | 241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-06 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-12 | 229_043 Figure expects to hire a small handful of lead customers rather than broad distribution over next 6-12 months. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-12 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | 229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-11 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-10 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 18%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 14%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 92%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?(market prob: 8%) | polymarket 2026-01-29 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-13 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Fable be reenabled for Americans before June 20?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-06-13 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | FDA NDA050671: VANCOMYCIN HYDROCHLORIDE IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (VANCOMYCIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — BAXTER HLTHCARE | fda 2026-06-09 | 245_010 Breaking will pursue a human-body microplastic solution (supplement) in addition to environmental plastic degradation Ben Lamm | Biotech/Longevity | 41% | |
| 0.56 | Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador?(market prob: 16%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | SPC_020 Archer Aviation's flagship Midnight eVTOL will launch commercial passenger flights by late 2026 — bolstered by FAA federal pilot programs; integrates NVIDIA IGX Thor onboard compute for predictive awareness, pilot safety, and autonomy-ready flight syst... Brett Adcock | Auto/Transport | 26% | |
| 0.56 | IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-15 | 229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-14 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-15 | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-15 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.56 | Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-06-10 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 75%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will Walker Jenkins win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-03-25 | IND_021 February 2026 realized forecast: AI automation capabilities necessitated severe operational restructuring, leading to termination of nearly half of Block staff (~4,000 jobs); serves as leading macroeconomic indicator proving labor displacement predicte... Jack Dorsey | Labor/Jobs | 74% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | 240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman | AI | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-14 | IND_014 Generative AI has rendered static one-size-fits-all learning structurally obsolete — 'every textbook is obsolete' as AI tutors construct personalized lessons mapped perfectly to student mastery level; total disintermediation of the human academic teach... Joe Liemandt | Education | 48% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-14 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA210985: METHYLPREDNISOLONE (METHYLPREDNISOLONE) — INGENUS PHARMS LLC | fda 2026-06-11 | 245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA206751: METHYLPREDNISOLONE (METHYLPREDNISOLONE) — ZYDUS PHARMS | fda 2026-06-01 | 245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA213988: VASOPRESSIN IN DEXTROSE 5% (VASOPRESSIN) — DR REDDYS | fda 2026-06-03 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA213988: VASOPRESSIN IN DEXTROSE 5% (VASOPRESSIN) — DR REDDYS | fda 2026-06-03 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?(market prob: 38%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?(market prob: 37%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-24 | SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore | Semis/Markets | 63% | ||
| 0.56 | Israel closes its airspace by July 15?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | |
| 0.56 | Will the US attack Cuba before the 2026 midterm elections?(market prob: 16%) | manifold 2026-06-17 | 246_025 Sam Altman predicts world-shaking cyber attack this year (2026). Sam Altman | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | AI_025 Most current generative AI wrappers are transient — they will fade into the background as infrastructure layers, analogous to Radio Shack fading in the Windows/PC era; winners will be infrastructure and verticalized depth plays, not thin API-wrapper apps. Mark Cuban | AI | 60% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-15 | 235_040 Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 26% | ||
| 0.56 | Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic?(market prob: 11%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Valencia vs. Barcelona(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 43% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-18 | 237_015 There will be significantly more AI claws/agents than humans within a typical organization. Alex Finn | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-17 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-16 | 240_050 US will pass law like China requiring retraining when AI automates a job Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-18 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-18 | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 66% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-18 | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-18 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-18 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-17 | 244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | 246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | SPC_025 Critical misalignment in the AI industry: approximately 300 AI capabilities researchers for every one AGI safety researcher — extreme systemic risk as these autonomous systems are deployed into physical domains like space and embodied robotics. Leopold Aschenbrenner | AI | 64% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-17 | 248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross | Markets/Stocks | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | 241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-16 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-06-19 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-19 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-12 | 232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 75% | |
| 0.56 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | 237_024 Skippy will listen to this YouTube video and self-improve based on the transcript (Peter's expectation). Peter Diamandis | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | 231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 23% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-18 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA074521: DIPYRIDAMOLE (DIPYRIDAMOLE) — HIKMA | fda 2026-06-04 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-19 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-06-14 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.56 | Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 44%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Curaçao?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Curaçao?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-21 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-20 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders(market prob: 62%) | polymarket 2026-06-20 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-06-12 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?(market prob: 17%) | polymarket 2026-06-15 | 231_040 Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 38% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-02-05 | 241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-17 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-16 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-03 | 244_008 If you build liquid supply with product-market fit, demand will show up Dara Khosrowshahi | Other | 53% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B(market prob: 52%) | polymarket 2026-06-18 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 237_015 There will be significantly more AI claws/agents than humans within a typical organization. Alex Finn | Labor/Jobs | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | INF_059 Global South energy transitions will follow "energy stacking" rather than substitution patterns — households simultaneously use solar panels (primarily for lighting), biomass, LPG, and grid power, reshaping land use and urbanization in peri-urban Afric... Peter Dannenberg | Energy | 59% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-22 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Cameron Boozer be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-12-30 | 236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will I get the Manifold Hat (Merch) By EOY?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 231_032 Everyone (China included) will want their own Dyson swarms/Saturnian rings in solar-synchronous orbit. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Will I get the Manifold Hat (Merch) By EOY?(market prob: 54%) | manifold 2026-06-19 | 247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis | Robotics | 32% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | COD_BIO_001 FDA finalizes or materially advances AI-for-drug-submission guidance by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | AI_034 The AI-native education model will see global adoption within approximately 5 years — driven by sub-$1,000 offline tablets and AI tutors capable of lifting historically lagging demographics (e.g. New Mexico, Sub-Saharan Africa) into top-tier performanc... Joe Liemandt | Education | 22% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-22 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA220309: CABERGOLINE (CABERGOLINE) — RENATA | fda 2026-06-15 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA201973: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE (TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — IPCA LABS LTD | fda 2026-06-18 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA087393: METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE (METHADONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — HIKMA | fda 2026-06-18 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA204603: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — NOVEL LABS INC | fda 2026-06-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA213761: OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE (OXYCODONE HYDROCHLORIDE) — QUAGEN | fda 2026-06-18 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA077858: TRAMADOL HYDROCHLORIDE AND ACETAMINOPHEN (ACETAMINOPHEN) — RISING | fda 2026-06-18 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA200492: LEVONORGESTREL AND ETHINYL ESTRADIOL AND ETHINYL ESTRADIOL (ETHINYL ESTRADIOL) — XIROMED | fda 2026-06-16 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | github_release 2026-03-17 | CMQ_026 NVIDIA silicon roadmap: Blackwell (2025) → Vera Rubin (2026) → Vera Rubin Ultra (2027) → Feynman (2028) — annual architectural cadence. Jensen Huang | Semis | 83% | ||
| 0.56 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 237_009 ChatGPT will release a model specifically for OpenClaw within the next 6 months. Alex Finn | AI | 41% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Pistons (-10.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 41% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | |
| 0.56 | Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Jiri Lehecka(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-28 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-13 | 238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 242_013 Flying cars will operate in LA in a big way in 2028 Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 55% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Karmine Corp vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 242_057 Artemis 2 launches April 1, 2026 - circumlunar mission Peter Diamandis | Space | 56% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics(market prob: 48%) | polymarket 2026-04-23 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-21 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Will Trump visit China by April 30?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-11-26 | 230_009 US GDP growth will hit triple-digit (100%+) within 5 years per Elon Musk. Elon Musk | Macro/Economy | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 42% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Karmine Corp vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.56 | Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April?(market prob: 96%) | polymarket 2026-03-23 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Iran leadership change by May 31?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-03-24 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-04-09 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-29 | 247_001 xAI will IPO at $2 trillion valuation this coming summer Peter Diamandis | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-27 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I promote to Platinum this season?(market prob: 99%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-26 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | ||
| 0.56 | Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom next week?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-04-26 | 231_020 Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). Dave Blundin | Consumer | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will a particular friend of mine crack anyone while at math camp?(market prob: 8%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 248_049 Humans (weaker intelligences) can successfully align/contain super-intelligences via weak-to-strong supervision. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Will I receive my manifold markets t-shirt?(market prob: 94%) | manifold 2026-04-24 | 237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn | Crypto | 43% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-23 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 237_016 A specific-sliver OpenClaw-powered vertical SaaS could become a $5 million company overnight for ~$200 subscription cost. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 248_032 First-generation neural uploads will be destructive; 2nd-4th generation will be non-destructive. Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | AI_020 NVIDIA will launch a 'space computing' push via the specialized Vera Rubin Space Module — bringing AI infrastructure, geospatial intelligence, and autonomous operations into low Earth orbit, then to autonomous lunar manufacturing bases. NVIDIA | Space | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 231_031 OpenAI planning $100B infrastructure spend, going public this year at $1T valuation. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 58% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban | Economy | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | gdelt 2026-04-30 | 247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia Potapova(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-12-06 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 45% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-04-30 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Bayern vs PSG, Champions League Semi Final Leg 2 6th May of 2026(market prob: 60%) | manifold 2026-04-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2025-06-19 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Iran leadership change by December 31?(market prob: 24%) | polymarket 2026-03-09 | 247_002 Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle with Sam stepping down as CEO and company continuing as for-profit Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2025-07-16 | 248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin | AI | 31% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5)(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 95%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | SPC_009 Formal 5-to-7-year delay announced February 2026 for SpaceX's foundational Mars missions — framed as 'sequencing decision' not abandonment. Executing NASA Artemis lunar contracts generates near-term revenue to finance Starship R&D. Shotwell's prior Mar... Gwynne Shotwell | Space | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Ningbo Rockets vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 241_028 US losing electric vehicle industry to China was an error that will repeat in robotics unless addressed Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 48% | |
| 0.56 | Ningbo Rockets vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 241_061 China robots will compete as replacement for dogs / low-cost consumer use (now; useful later) Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 67%) | polymarket 2026-04-26 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will I stay in Masters League this season?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres(market prob: 13%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 235_006 By end of 2026 AI will enable creating any virus or nuclear weapon via AI agent. Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | COD_SPC_003 SpaceX completes large-scale Starship vehicle-to-vehicle cryogenic propellant transfer by end 2026 Codex Research Pack | Space | 28% | |
| 0.56 | Is my number squarefree?(market prob: 84%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 229_028 Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 69% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-04-27 | 231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-01 | SEM_035 World-class, AI-based mathematicians will emerge within a single year (by ~early 2027). Eric Schmidt | AI/Cognition | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | Ducks vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | FREE 1K MANA(market prob: 80%) | manifold 2026-05-04 | 240_058 OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | |
| 0.56 | Rudy Giuliani dead by end of May 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis | Labor/Jobs | 47% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | Santos: Miguel Tobon vs Eduardo Ribeiro(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-04-29 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 2%) | polymarket 2026-04-16 | 247_003 Settlement will include granting equity stake on OpenAI cap table for Elon in ultimate IPO Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-05 | INF_019 A modern hyperscale AI data center can consume up to 5 million gallons of freshwater per day for evaporative cooling — roughly equivalent to municipal supply for a town of 50,000 people. Elon Musk | Energy | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-04 | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin | Macro/Economy | 34% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | 244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-05 | 240_034 Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 Morgan Stanley | Energy | 47% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-04 | SEM_048 OpenAI restructured into a $500 billion colossus by removing profit caps for investors (to support Stargate chip acquisition). OpenAI (Sam Altman-led) | AI/Corporate | 80% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA220033: ELTROMBOPAG OLAMINE (ELTROMBOPAG OLAMINE) — ZENARA | fda 2026-04-08 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | github_release 2023-08-29 | CYB_029 Corporate API providers will increasingly restrict third-party agent harnesses (exemplified by Anthropic's April 2026 ban of OpenClaw) — this structural conflict highlights the precarious nature of building autonomous enterprises atop proprietary APIs,... Anthropic | AI | 80% | ||
| 0.56 | Iran closes its airspace by May 6?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-10.5)(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-04-30 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 66% | |
| 0.56 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?(market prob: 12%) | polymarket 2026-04-17 | 238_048 US must find 100 GW of new power or lose AI race to China (cited from Eric Schmidt) Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Sinja Kraus(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Sinja Kraus(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 84%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Isurus vs R2 Esports Club - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom next week?(market prob: 61%) | manifold 2026-05-03 | 231_020 Smart glasses with face recognition will become part of normative culture (peer pressure forces opt-in). Dave Blundin | Consumer | 50% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-05 | 229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-04 | 232_050 Discovery of new physics will soon unlock atom-by-atom construction for building compute off-Earth. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA211479: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — MSN | fda 2026-04-06 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA211563: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — ALKEM LABS LTD | fda 2026-04-06 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA219755: DAPAGLIFLOZIN AND METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE (DAPAGLIFLOZIN, METFORMIN HYDROCHLORIDE) — INVENTIA HEALTHCARE LIMITED | fda 2026-04-09 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-05-01 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Bubliki vs ZeroZone Gaming (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-07 | 241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Maria Sakkari vs Elena Rybakina(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-07 | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 66% | ||
| 0.56 | Thunder vs. Lakers(market prob: 77%) | polymarket 2026-05-03 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Fight to Go the Distance?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Fight to Go the Distance?(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-04-18 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-3.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis | Space | 31% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-3.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | 235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-07 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 232_015 AI will discover something as significant as relativity in physics within the next two years. Dave Blundin | AI | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin | AI/Architecture | 65% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis | AI | 8% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | 242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-06 | SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Physics | 56% | ||
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Arthur Fils(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail | Markets/Stocks | 47% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will North Korea conduct a major military provocation(market prob: 24%) | manifold 2026-05-09 | 248_024 AI will drive an explosion of new religions and AI cults. Alex Wissner-Gross | Other | 46% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-08 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-08 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | Spread: Spurs (-5.5)(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin | Labor/Jobs | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-05 | 246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-04 | 235_042 OpenAI IPO shares could deliver a 50% pop in 6 months after IPO. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-09 | AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang | Labor/Jobs | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Timberwolves vs. Spurs(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-02 | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 66% | |
| 0.56 | Oeiras 4: Tomas Barrios vs Michael Zheng(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-11 | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | Will national dry van spot rate be below $1.50/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 7%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will national dry van spot rate be $1.75–$2.00/mile in June 2026?(market prob: 14%) | manifold 2026-05-10 | 238_047 US will add 86 GW of new grid capacity in 2026, 51% from solar Emad Mostaque | Energy | 45% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-11 | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 66% | ||
| 0.56 | Ducks vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-05-08 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-06 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)(market prob: 39%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)(market prob: 56%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-12 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. Jensen Huang | Policy/Semis | 66% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-12 | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | 12% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA072734: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — HIKMA | fda 2026-05-05 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA072735: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — HIKMA | fda 2026-05-05 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA072736: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — HIKMA | fda 2026-05-05 | CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 20% | |
| 0.56 | github_release 2023-02-10 | 234_051 Claude-facilitated dating will replace traditional matchmaking Alex Wissner-Gross | Consumer | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | github_release 2023-01-07 | 241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt | AI | 48% | ||
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | CMQ_004 AGI-like models matching or outperforming human experts across most professional domains could arrive as early as 2026-2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 28% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-10 | INF_039 Consumer-facing AI hardware shortages will worsen: high-Unified-Memory Apple Mac Studio lead times now range 6 days to 6 weeks (up to ~54 days) because data centers are absorbing the world's HBM and memory supply — DRAM market transitioning to hourly v... Alex Finn | Consumer | 77% | ||
| 0.56 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox(market prob: 47%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | AUT_019 Weil's April 2026 exit from OpenAI VP of Science signals critical juncture — as AI transitions from singular query-response to continuous autonomous agentic loops required for scientific discovery, underlying computational costs surge exponentially; GP... Kevin Weil | AI | 70% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-05-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Will Hampshire College be open in 2028?(market prob: 19%) | manifold 2026-05-11 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | test-b(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-08 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn | Consumer | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | 232_011 Jury is still out on whether speech will be the modality of the future for high-bandwidth operation. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-12 | CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley | AI/Compute | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina(market prob: 75%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-14 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA203103: PROPRANOLOL HYDROCHLORIDE (PROPRANOLOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — IPCA LABS LTD | fda 2026-05-01 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | github_release 2025-08-12 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.56 | Valorant: Team Heretics vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs Dream Esports (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner | Energy/Compute | 86% | |
| 0.56 | Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-09 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-15 | S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-15 | 238_027 OpenAI, xAI, Google Gemini capabilities will skyrocket, achieving parity with Anthropic after DoW friction Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-15 | SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-15 | S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA215276: NICOTINE POLACRILEX (NICOTINE POLACRILEX) — DR REDDYS LABS SA | fda 2026-05-12 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA218364: LEVETIRACETAM IN SODIUM CHLORIDE (LEVETIRACETAM) — MYLAN LABS LTD | fda 2026-05-08 | 241_053 AI chips are 2 kilowatts each - requires water cooling Eric Schmidt | AI | 54% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA211135: RIOCIGUAT (RIOCIGUAT) — MSN | fda 2026-05-08 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA220679: DAPAGLIFLOZIN (DAPAGLIFLOZIN) — CENTAUR PHARMACEUTICALS PRIVATE LIMITED | fda 2026-05-06 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | |
| 0.56 | New York Yankees vs. New York Mets(market prob: 53%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-15 | 240_012 Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 35% | |
| 0.56 | UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Card)(market prob: 40%) | polymarket 2026-04-25 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays(market prob: 19%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 49%) | polymarket 2026-05-10 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-14 | 235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 52% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 42%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | CYB_010 Agentic commerce will radically redistribute — not grow — the global commerce stack, severely affecting traditional software platforms, global payment processors, digital advertising networks, and physical logistics providers. Consumer delegation of pr... Morgan Stanley | Markets/Stocks | 70% | |
| 0.56 | Will my nephew join Manifold before June 1?(market prob: 45%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_015 Brent Bornick/1X to ship Peter a humanoid robot this summer (2026) Brent Bornick | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.56 | FDA NDA212728: NURTEC ODT (RIMEGEPANT SULFATE) — PFIZER | fda 2026-05-08 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | github_release 2021-08-19 | AI_017 NVIDIA will make Agentic AI the primary demand vector via two specialized products: the 'NemoClaw' developer toolkit for building/orchestrating autonomous agents, and the 'Vera CPU rack' hardware platform explicitly designed to host, deploy, and execut... Jensen Huang | Semis | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-11 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-17 | 248_043 Full sewing/stitching automation likely within six months. Dave Blundin | Robotics | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Championship?(market prob: 43%) | manifold 2026-05-16 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis | Auto/Transport | 52% | |
| 0.56 | Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-16 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | COD_AI_003 EU AI Act GPAI enforcement powers begin on 2026-08-02 without a blanket delay Codex Research Pack | Geopolitics | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027 | ai_regulatory_pause | 10% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-18 | 244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-18 | 237_016 A specific-sliver OpenClaw-powered vertical SaaS could become a $5 million company overnight for ~$200 subscription cost. Alex Finn | Markets/Stocks | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-18 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers(market prob: 60%) | polymarket 2026-05-13 | 240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross | Media/Ads | 43% | |
| 0.56 | Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?(market prob: 7%) | polymarket 2025-07-10 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tristan Schoolkate vs Kimmer Coppejans(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tristan Schoolkate vs Kimmer Coppejans(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang | AI/Compute | 92% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 46% | ||
| 0.56 | Israel closes its airspace by May 24?(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 248_016 ASI is imminent; access to top AI models will be closed down in a couple of years. Dave Blundin | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Israel closes its airspace by May 24?(market prob: 33%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | |
| 0.56 | New fish species (market prob: 69%) | manifold 2026-05-19 | 237_018 We are seeing a Cambrian explosion of OpenClaw variants (PicoClaw, IronClaw, NanoClaw, Nanobot, etc.) with many more to come. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Will the 2026 NBA Finals reach a Game 6?(market prob: 50%) | manifold 2026-05-18 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-18 | CYB_003 Localized, ungoverned multi-agent networks will spontaneously generate their own social networks, governance manifestos, debated ethics, and closed-loop digital economies — exemplified by the Moltbook platform in early 2026 where 150,000+ autonomous AI... Alex Finn | AI | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA218214: ESTRADIOL (ESTRADIOL) — ENCUBE | fda 2026-05-11 | 245_009 Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 45% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs(market prob: 90%) | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 42% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-24 | 231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin | AI | 30% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | 230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | INF_068 2026 will be a watershed year for state and institutional Bitcoin accumulation — nations will drive a sustained Bitcoin shopping spree, formalizing digital assets as reserve infrastructure. Michael Saylor | Crypto | 34% | |
| 0.56 | Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-02-28 | FUT_008 China ceases to exist as functional unified economic superpower within next 10 years — terminal horizon ~2036 with severe undeniable systemic degradation fully visible 2026-2031. Unique-compromised demographic pyramid (One-Child Policy + fastest urbani... Peter Zeihan | Geopolitics | 30% | |
| 0.56 | Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?(market prob: 10%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 235_017 OpenAI will likely go public at north of $1 trillion valuation. Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 48% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs(market prob: 54%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | |
| 0.56 | Will Florida PALM go live as scheduled on January 11, 2027?(market prob: 41%) | manifold 2026-05-30 | 239_004 xAI/Grok will catch up and exceed competitors on coding by mid-2026 Elon Musk | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-29 | 240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-25 | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin | AI | 75% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-05-29 | 246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-05-28 | 229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA218088: REVEFENACIN (REVEFENACIN) — LUPIN INC. | fda 2026-05-15 | 242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 36% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA207812: METHOTREXATE SODIUM (METHOTREXATE SODIUM) — ZYDUS PHARMS | fda 2026-05-27 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA212371: EMPAGLIFLOZIN (EMPAGLIFLOZIN) — AUROBINDO PHARMA LIMITED | fda 2026-05-21 | COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack | Biotech/Longevity | 50% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA219869: LOSARTAN POTASSIUM AND HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE (HYDROCHLOROTHIAZIDE) — HETERO LABS LTD V | fda 2026-05-27 | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang | Manufacturing | 86% | |
| 0.56 | San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 99%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 231_040 Ireland's UBI art scheme will NOT become a template for the future peacetime work creation. Alex Wissner-Gross | Macro/Economy | 38% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-05-31 | 247_006 Anthropic ARR will reach $100 billion by end of 2026 Peter Diamandis | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 21%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 234_009 Pentagon and Anthropic will resolve their standoff amicably Alex Wissner-Gross | Defense | 39% | |
| 0.56 | Israel closes its airspace by June 15?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-05-18 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | |
| 0.56 | Israel closes its airspace by June 30?(market prob: 3%) | polymarket 2026-05-12 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | |
| 0.56 | Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-01 | 242_007 Prediction markets favor $2T+ SpaceX IPO pricing in Terafab value Prediction markets | Markets/Stocks | 45% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-01 | INF_010 US data-center demand will reach 74 GW by 2028 against a projected ~49 GW power-access shortfall — structural gap driven by retiring coal/gas, aging grid, and ~7-year interconnection queues. Morgan Stanley | Energy | 56% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-01 | SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. Jensen Huang | Capital Markets | 86% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA NDA214056: ONAPGO (APOMORPHINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — MDD US | fda 2026-05-15 | IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman | Biotech/Longevity | 43% | |
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA215820: PHYTONADIONE (PHYTONADIONE) — DR REDDYS | fda 2026-05-15 | 247_041 AI-powered drugs have 85% phase 1 success vs 52% traditional Peter Diamandis | Biotech/Longevity | 55% | |
| 0.56 | FDA NDA203049: ARGATROBAN (ARGATROBAN) — HIKMA PHARM CO LTD | fda 2026-05-15 | INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis | Biotech/Longevity | 38% | |
| 0.56 | Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 35%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-05-29 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider(market prob: 88%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei | AI | 16% | |
| 0.56 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5(market prob: 50%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo Romano(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-05-25 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-02 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-01 | AUT_020 AI-driven adaptive learning platforms operating with near-total autonomy — human teachers transition from content deliverers to motivational 'guides' while AI handles entirety of core academic instruction. Short highly-focused 'Pomodoro' sessions manag... MacKenzie Price | Education | 49% | ||
| 0.56 | Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 34% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-03 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-03 | 244_012 Uber will monetize its Didi stake at some point Dara Khosrowshahi | Markets/Stocks | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-03 | 242_034 AI could compress S&P 500 equity valuations 2-7x free cash flow (down from 22x) Chamath Palihapitiya | Markets/Stocks | 38% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA ANDA216095: SODIUM SULFATE, MAGNESIUM SULFATE AND POTASSIUM CHLORIDE (MAGNESIUM SULFATE) — LUPIN | fda 2026-05-28 | CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis | AI | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves(market prob: 31%) | polymarket 2026-05-29 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Sebastian Gorzny(market prob: 57%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor | Crypto | 15% | |
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli(market prob: 32%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 235_008 Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | |
| 0.56 | Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 231_038 TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. Dave Blundin | AI | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Tyler: Braden Shick vs Aidan Mayo(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?(market prob: 98%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 46% | |
| 0.56 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 71%) | polymarket 2026-05-26 | 248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail | Robotics | 34% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-04 | 236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang | Geopolitics | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-04 | SPC_012 SpaceX will perfect orbital refueling architectures by 2027 — the critical prerequisite for future Mars missions, enabling Starship depot-based beyond-LEO operations. Peter Diamandis | Space | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-04 | CMQ_053 Figure AI secured $675M Series B in 2024 and partnered commercially with BMW — addressing skilled-labor shortages in automotive manufacturing. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | 242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin | Markets/Stocks | 50% | |
| 0.56 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers(market prob: 36%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 242_025 60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks Dave Blundin | Real Estate | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome?(market prob: 9%) | polymarket 2026-06-03 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-05-30 | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis | Markets/Stocks | 67% | |
| 0.56 | Will I get accepted to the August Iliad Intensive?(market prob: 53%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 233_005 Interactive AI tutors with engaging personalities/avatars will arrive within about a year. Dave Blundin | AI | 51% | |
| 0.56 | Will July 2026 in Boston be one of the 5 warmest July's ever?(market prob: 66%) | manifold 2026-06-05 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-04 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 238_069 The path to the abundant end-state will include diverse mutually-exclusive nation-state/business paths Alex Wissner-Gross | Geopolitics | 39% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Physics | 56% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-03 | 241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA NDA209803: STEGLATRO (ERTUGLIFLOZIN) — MSD SUB MERCK | fda 2026-06-03 | 233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt | Education | 35% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | CMQ_041 Reallocation of foundry real estate toward high-margin HBM leaves severe unaddressed supply shortage for traditional consumer-grade DRAM — bifurcation of global memory market. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 71% | |
| 0.56 | LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 4 Winner(market prob: 100%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt | Robotics | 49% | |
| 0.56 | Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev(market prob: 23%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies(market prob: 72%) | polymarket 2026-05-31 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-05 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-05 | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-05 | SEM_025 Morgan Stanley price target $250 for Nvidia — representing 32% upside from current levels. Joseph Moore | Capital Markets | 55% | ||
| 0.56 | FDA NDA201848: HEPZATO (MELPHALAN HYDROCHLORIDE) — DELCATH SYSTEMS INC | fda 2026-05-28 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | |
| 0.56 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers(market prob: 73%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 242_025 60% of LA parking will be released, becoming gardens and parks Dave Blundin | Real Estate | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Iran closes its airspace by July 15?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 243_025 Middle East (UAE, KSA) will be most forward-leaning on autonomous vehicle deployment Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 44% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-07 | 242_010 By end of 2026, a full GPU will be able to do brain surgery or discover new math/physics Dave Blundin | AI | 50% | ||
| 0.56 | LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis | Biotech/Longevity | 31% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei | AI/Compute | 19% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom | AI | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | SEM_033 AI is gaining the capability to autonomously conduct original physics research (e.g., GPT-5.2 Pro proved new gluon scattering formulas). Alex Wissner-Gross | AI/Physics | 56% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | 247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross | Biotech/Longevity | 44% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | 234_038 Real estate is not an asset class impervious to the singularity Alex Wissner-Gross | Real Estate | 35% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-05 | 231_047 Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 43% | ||
| 0.56 | Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2(market prob: 61%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Israel closes its airspace by June 9?(market prob: 4%) | polymarket 2026-06-07 | 248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross | Space | 12% | |
| 0.56 | Will Tim Elliott be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | 247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross | Robotics | 65% | |
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-08 | 229_033 Figure will deploy robots into its new 'Grid' facility to run 24/7 starting this month with Figure 3s. Brett Adcock | Robotics | 40% | ||
| 0.56 | Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres(market prob: 45%) | polymarket 2026-06-02 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Will any 2026 World Cup team advance through group stage with 0 wins?(market prob: 27%) | manifold 2026-06-08 | 232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba | AI | 47% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-08 | S_COMPUTE_STARGATE_FAILURE Stargate failure: <500MW by 2029 | compute_scale | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-08 | SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore | Semis/Products | 71% | ||
| 0.56 | Spurs vs. Knicks(market prob: 46%) | polymarket 2026-06-04 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% | |
| 0.56 | Will Amir Albazi be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?(market prob: 0%) | polymarket 2026-01-02 | S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter | agi_general_capability | 10% | |
| 0.56 | Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky(market prob: 78%) | polymarket 2026-05-27 | 247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin | AI | 40% | |
| 0.56 | Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5)(market prob: 51%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | 25% | |
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt | Education | 36% | ||
| 0.56 | manifold 2026-06-09 | 243_028 Joby eVTOL service hopefully coming to US sometime next year (2027) Dara Khosrowshahi | Auto/Transport | 41% | ||
| 0.56 | Will a Goalkeeper score a goal at the 2026 fifa mens World Cup?(market prob: 6%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community | AI | 100% | |
| 0.56 | edgar_8k 2026-06-09 | S_COMPUTE_STARGATE_FAILURE Stargate failure: <500MW by 2029 | compute_scale | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross | Quantum/AI | 15% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba | Robotics | 62% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | 20% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-07 | ROB_004 By approximately 2027-2028, collaborative AI programs will essentially 'solve physics' — unifying general relativity and quantum mechanics into a new mathematical framework; the core mission of DeepMind is to 'first solve AI, then use AI to solve every... Demis Hassabis | AI | 8% | ||
| 0.56 | polymarket 2026-06-09 | CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley | Semis/Memory | 68% | ||
| 0.56 | Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5)(market prob: 30%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | 8% | |
| 0.56 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?(market prob: 97%) | polymarket 2026-06-01 | 241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt | Geopolitics | 44% | |
| 0.56 | Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo(market prob: 25%) | polymarket 2026-05-28 | 246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket | AI | 45% | |
| 0.56 | Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes(market prob: 41%) | polymarket 2026-06-05 | 248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 32% | |
| 0.56 | Will the USA reach the quarter-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 35%) | manifold 2026-06-09 | AUT_007 2026 US GDP growth 5% to 6.2% driven directly by AI productivity — citing massive productivity increases unlocked by enterprise AI integration as primary catalyst. Traditional enterprise SaaS 'maintenance and migration' revenue models structurally coll... Chamath Palihapitiya | Macro/Economy | 13% | |
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross | AI | 42% | ||
| 0.56 | arxiv 2026-06-09 | 241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt | AI | 51% | ||
| 0.56 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?(market prob: 1%) | polymarket 2026-06-09 | S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window | mars_uncrewed_landing | 25% |