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Sim	Doc	Source	Pred	Domain	Prior
0.57	🇳🇿NZL vs 🇪🇬EGY [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇺🇾URY vs 🇨🇻CPV [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇧🇪BEL vs 🇮🇷IRN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇪🇸ESP vs 🇸🇦KSA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇹🇳TUN vs 🇯🇵JPN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇪🇨ECU vs 🇨🇼CUW [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇩🇪GER vs 🇨🇮CIV [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇳🇱NED vs 🇸🇪SWE [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇹🇷TUR vs 🇵🇾PAR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇧🇷BRA vs 🇭🇹HAI [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇬🇧SCO vs 🇲🇦MAR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇺🇸USA vs 🇦🇺AUS [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇲🇽MEX vs 🇰🇷KOR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇨🇦CAN vs 🇶🇦QAT [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇨🇭SUI vs 🇧🇦BIH [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇨🇿CZE vs 🇿🇦RSA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇺🇿UZB vs 🇨🇴COL [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇬🇭GHA vs 🇵🇦PAN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇬🇧ENG vs 🇭🇷CRO [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇵🇹POR vs 🇨🇩COD [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇦🇹AUT vs 🇯🇴JOR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇦🇷ARG vs 🇩🇿ALG [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇮🇶IRQ vs 🇳🇴NOR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇫🇷FRA vs 🇸🇳SEN [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇮🇷IRN vs 🇳🇿NZL [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-09	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	Free Lottery (Hubble constant)(market prob: 5%)	manifold 2026-06-09	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.57	🇰🇷KOR vs 🇨🇿CZE [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-08	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	Senseonics Holdings, Inc. (SENS) (CIK 0001616543)	edgar_8k 2026-06-08	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	61%
0.57	EgoTactile: Learning Grasp Pressure for Everyday Objects from Egocentric Video	arxiv 2026-06-08	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	20%
0.57	Rethinking the Divergence Regularization in LLM RL	arxiv 2026-06-08	233_021 AI learning will improve via closed-loop reinforcement learning cycle making results keep increasing. Joe Liemandt	AI	39%
0.57	Einstein-de Haas effect and induced rotation in an evolving magnetized QCD matter	arxiv 2026-06-08	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Stage(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.57	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 82%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	SEM_003 Fierce zero-sum scramble will saturate every available long-term power contract and voltage transformer through rest of decade. Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy/Compute	86%
0.57	Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	鹅腿阿姨卖鸭腿事件:市监部门最终会做出哪种处理?(2026/8/31前) / "Goose-leg Auntie" duck-leg case: final penalty?	manifold 2026-06-10	238_010 AI takeoff/inflection is happening now Emad Mostaque	AI	66%
0.57	Will Claude Fable 5 be a accessible in a Claude max 20x subscription on June 23 2026?(market prob: 35%)	manifold 2026-06-10	246_032 Claude or successors will be granted limited form of AI personhood. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Total Goals at the 2026 fifa men’s World Cup?	manifold 2026-06-10	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.57	Will I get a hard conversation with my Math coach at beginning of next schoolyear?(market prob: 19%)	manifold 2026-06-10	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Null-Space Constrained Low-Rank Adaptation for Response-Specified Large Language Model Unlearning	arxiv 2026-06-09	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Null-Space Constrained Low-Rank Adaptation for Response-Specified Large Language Model Unlearning	arxiv 2026-06-09	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Improving Adversarial Transferability on Vision-Language Pre-training Models via Surrogate-Specific Bias Correction	arxiv 2026-06-09	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.57	Integral Field Unit Spectroscopy with One Fiber	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	Spacetime from Operator Algebras	arxiv 2026-06-09	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Calling the Brane Next Door: The Kaluza-Klein Tower as a Gravitational Information Channel	arxiv 2026-06-08	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	FDA ANDA214470: HALOPERIDOL (HALOPERIDOL) — ALEMBIC	fda 2026-06-04	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.57	FDA ANDA219552: PEMIGATINIB (PEMIGATINIB) — SANDOZ INC	fda 2026-06-01	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.57	Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?(market prob: 37%)	polymarket 2025-11-14	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will there be widespread fuel shortages in Moscow city before 1 December 2026?(market prob: 75%)	manifold 2026-06-11	246_014 Elon's stated orbital refueling and Mars/Moon timelines will slip. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	41%
0.57	ADOBE INC. (ADBE) (CIK 0000796343)	edgar_8k 2026-06-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Illumination-Robust Camera-Based Heart-Rate Estimation for Physiological Sensing in Robots	arxiv 2026-06-10	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	RCAP: Robust, Class-Aware, Probabilistic Dynamic Dataset Pruning	arxiv 2026-06-10	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.57	Interpretable Neural Marked Statistics for Cosmological Inference	arxiv 2026-06-09	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.57	facebookresearch/fairchem fairchem_core-2.7.0	github_release 2025-09-23	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Sudarshan Yellamaraju win the 2026 TOUR Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	241_045 Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.57	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14(market prob: 36%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Best Out-of-Context Quote at Manifest 2026	manifold 2026-06-12	232_028 In AI age there will be unlimited entrepreneurial opportunity; the 'only AI' displacement narrative is wrong. Ben Horowitz	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.57	RICHTECH ROBOTICS INC. (RR) (CIK 0001963685)	edgar_8k 2026-06-12	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.57	Mod-Guide: An LLM-based Content Moderation Feedback System to Address Insensitive Speech toward Indigenous Ethnic and Religious Minority Communities	arxiv 2026-06-11	230_044 Unrest/civil unrest will materialize; tech AI leaders will face security threats and death threats. Peter Diamandis	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Leveraging Audio-LLMs to Filter Speech-to-Speech Training Data	arxiv 2026-06-11	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.57	Quantum Stochastic Inflation	arxiv 2026-06-10	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	How traversable is a traversable wormhole?	arxiv 2026-06-10	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Infinite-Order Lattice Chiral Anomalies and CPT	arxiv 2026-06-10	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.57	FDA ANDA215552: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — YAOPHARMA CO LTD	fda 2026-06-09	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	FDA ANDA207825: DOXYLAMINE SUCCINATE AND PYRIDOXINE HYDROCHLORIDE (DOXYLAMINE SUCCINATE) — PHARMOBEDIENT	fda 2026-06-10	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	FDA ANDA219830: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — ORIENT PHARMA	fda 2026-06-09	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-12	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.57	Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics(market prob: 43%)	polymarket 2026-06-07	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Tom Kim win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	241_037 Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights Eric Schmidt	AI	49%
0.57	Will Tom Kim win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5(market prob: 74%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5(market prob: 94%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Set Handicap: Munar (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5)(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	FDA BLA761306: EBGLYSS (LEBRIKIZUMAB-LBKZ) — ELI LILLY AND CO	fda 2026-06-09	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA202693: ACETAZOLAMIDE SODIUM (ACETAZOLAMIDE SODIUM) — AVET LIFESCIENCES	fda 2026-06-05	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	facebookresearch/fairseq v0.7.1	github_release 2019-06-20	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-06-08	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)(market prob: 26%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	How many years between Starship 50 and Starship 500?	manifold 2026-06-14	242_038 Humans will land on the moon again in 2-3 years via Starship Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	35%
0.57	Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Will "Game Recognizes Game" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 13%)	manifold 2026-06-15	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.57	Will I win any prize in the next prize drawing (Drawing #30)(market prob: 26%)	manifold 2026-06-15	238_004 Future Vision X-Prize will produce at least one (possibly two) feature films depicting the future Peter Diamandis	Media/Ads	55%
0.57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? [Polymarket](market prob: 21%)	manifold 2026-06-15	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Free Lottery (cosmic voids)(market prob: 8%)	manifold 2026-06-15	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.57	When will U.S. government's export control directive on Fable be lifted?	manifold 2026-06-14	240_008 NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming months Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	38%
0.57	Which Scores Will Happen on June 15th FIFA World Cup 2026	manifold 2026-06-14	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) (CIK 0001780312)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	TK15 SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure	—	12%
0.57	HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (HLIO) (CIK 0001024795)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	CHART INDUSTRIES INC (GTLS) (CIK 0000892553)	edgar_8k 2026-06-15	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5(market prob: 27%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Spread: Athletics (-1.5)(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-06-15	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Federated Medical Image Segmentation under Real-World Label Noise: A Benchmark Suite for Noisy Label Learning Method Selection	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	ArtNet: A JEPA-Like Articulatory Predictive Framework for Robust Zero-Shot Phoneme Recognition	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.57	LUCID: Learned Undersampling-Adaptive Consistency-Guided Inference with Deterministic Flow Matching for Sparse-View CT Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.57	A Comprehensive Survey of Medical Image Segmentation: Challenges, Benchmarks, and Beyond	arxiv 2026-06-15	SEM_021 Largest AI models will see a 100x leap in size by 2026, driven largely by Chinese research efforts using quantization breakthroughs. Dave Blundin	AI/China	45%
0.57	Tool-IQA: Augmenting Image Quality Assessment with Simple Tools	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_058 Localized hardware setups (multiple Apple Mac Studios, dedicated 'AI Max 300' silicon) will allow developers to run powerful inference workloads directly on-premises — reducing cloud dependency. Alex Finn	AI/Compute	59%
0.57	Tool-IQA: Augmenting Image Quality Assessment with Simple Tools	arxiv 2026-06-15	ROB_027 The 'Paperclip Maximizer' thought experiment — unaligned superintelligence consuming all planetary resources to execute a single mundane task — is being revived as a practical engineering concern as AI transitions from digital to physical domains. The ... Nick Bostrom	AI	40%
0.57	Entity Labels Are Not Entity Signals: A Framework for Observable Relevance in Document Re-Ranking	arxiv 2026-06-14	AUT_003 'Vibe coding' — the full delegation of syntactic code generation to autonomous models, with human engineers interacting purely through natural-language intent while remaining entirely abstracted from underlying programming architecture; minimalist arch... Andrej Karpathy	AI	87%
0.57	Your Privacy My Cloak: Backdoor Attacks on Differentially Private Federated Learning	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	The Art of Mixology: Mixup-based Obfuscation for Privacy-Preserving Split Learning in Large Language Models	arxiv 2026-06-15	246_028 Broad civilizational cyber attack via AI hash function inversion is borderline guaranteed. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Quantum gravity and spectral running cutoff	arxiv 2026-06-15	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	FDA ANDA209685: ATOVAQUONE (ATOVAQUONE) — GLENMARK SPECLT	fda 2026-06-08	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-06-11	236_025 Suburban housing prices will fall as white collar workers lose jobs and sell homes Andrew Yang	Real Estate	42%
0.57	Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-06-17	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Does Starship flight 150 happen before New Glenn 15?(market prob: 30%)	manifold 2026-06-17	SPC_013 As 15th NASA Administrator (confirmed December 2025), Isaacman predicts NASA will launch astronauts into space every 6-9 months via commercial partnerships — plus aggressive reinforcement of lunar-lander programs to establish a permanent surface presen... Jared Isaacman	Space	46%
0.57	England score at least [X] goals in the 2026 World Cup	manifold 2026-06-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-06-16	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.57	MeiBRD: Meta-Learning Intraoperative Biomechanical Residual Deformation	arxiv 2026-06-16	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	MambaCount: Efficient Text-guided Open-vocabulary Object Counting with Spatial Sparse State Space Duality Block	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	Pushing the Primordial Frontier: Exact Linear Solutions in Multifield Inflation	arxiv 2026-06-16	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	Imprints of dynamical phases in semiclassical entanglement entropy in 2D CFT	arxiv 2026-06-16	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Effective-metric formulation of Casimir energies in nonlinear scalar and electromagnetic theories	arxiv 2026-06-15	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5(market prob: 44%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Will Kazuma Okamoto win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-25	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Carlos Correa lead the MLB in runs for the 2026 regular season?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5(market prob: 78%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season(market prob: 81%)	polymarket 2026-06-13	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Which Scores Will Happen on June 18th FIFA World Cup 2026	manifold 2026-06-17	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) (CIK 0001679788)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	CENTRUS ENERGY CORP (LEU) (CIK 0001065059)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	CENTRUS ENERGY CORP (LEU) (CIK 0001065059)	edgar_8k 2026-06-18	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	BILL Holdings, Inc. (BILL) (CIK 0001786352)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (HLIO) (CIK 0001024795)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	nVent Electric plc (NVT) (CIK 0001720635)	edgar_8k 2026-06-17	FUT_013 Exponential scaling of modular battery swapping infrastructure (Ample), mass production of clean-energy lithium-ion batteries (Northvolt), and low-GHG shipping + massive high-voltage ultra-long-distance transmission grids become economically viable pur... Ramez Naam	Auto/Transport	44%
0.57	Morpheus: A Morphology-Aware Neural Tokenizer and Word Embedder for Turkish	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_056 Small Language Model (SLM) optimizations and model-distillation techniques will enable localized humanoid reasoning with extreme power efficiency — embedded AI without cloud dependency. Dario Amodei	AI/Compute	19%
0.57	Neural Phase Correlation	arxiv 2026-06-16	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	Learning from Your Own Mistakes: Constructing Learnable Micro-Reflective Trajectories for Self-Distillation	arxiv 2026-06-17	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Urdu Katib Handwritten Dataset: A Historical Document Dataset for Offline Urdu Handwritten Text Recognition with CRNN-Based Baseline Evaluation	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	A Note on Corrections to Entanglement Wedge Reconstruction	arxiv 2026-06-17	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	An effective field theory approach to the sign problem in BFSS	arxiv 2026-06-16	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Black p-brane Thermodynamics without Constructing Solutions	arxiv 2026-06-16	232_056 Every single discipline (math, physics, chemistry, medicine) will be flattened by well-targeted generalist AIs. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Exponentiation of higher-point and higher-genus Virasoro conformal blocks in the semiclassical limit	arxiv 2026-06-16	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	FDA BLA761105: SKYRIZI (RISANKIZUMAB-RZAA) — ABBVIE INC	fda 2026-06-12	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5)(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5(market prob: 19%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	8%
0.57	Will Ivan Perišić be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-12	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	62%
0.57	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5(market prob: 91%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Resolves to lowest [read description]	manifold 2026-06-19	236_036 Hyperinflation to solve debt problem in post-scarcity AI economy Alex Wissner-Gross	Macro/Economy	35%
0.57	Pourrait il avoir un attentat au USA pendant la coupe du monde 2026?(market prob: 25%)	manifold 2026-06-19	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.57	Will Ralsei Transition by the end of Deltarune?	manifold 2026-06-18	237_026 The cadence of AI breakthroughs and Moonshot episodes will keep picking up as we are in the singularity. Peter Diamandis	AI	31%
0.57	PrefSQA: Pairwise Preference Prediction for Speech Quality Assessment and the Critical Role of High Quality Datasets	arxiv 2026-06-17	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.57	Exploring Feature Extraction Technique Parameters for Acoustic Gunshot Classification	arxiv 2026-06-17	235_015 GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	3D-DLP: Self-Supervised 3D Object-Centric Scene Representation Learning	arxiv 2026-06-17	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.57	MiqraBERT: Regression-Based Sentence-BERT Finetuning for Biblical Hebrew Parallel Detection	arxiv 2026-06-17	238_070 Small language models will be where most algorithmic breakthroughs come from (crowdsourced) Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	ARC: Adaptive Robust Joint State and Covariance Estimation	arxiv 2026-06-18	SEM_022 FP4 / ternary-weight architectures decouple AI capability from raw transistor density — embargoed nations maintain competitive development. Dave Blundin	AI/Architecture	65%
0.57	Evolving Dark Energy Is Vacuum Energy After All	arxiv 2026-06-18	CMQ_031 AI has crossed a historic tipping point — traditional Moore's Law is obsolete; AI now follows a highly accelerated, domain-specific experience curve. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI/Compute	42%
0.57	Deriving effective descriptions and signal predictions for dynamical gravitational systems	arxiv 2026-06-17	230_033 Intelligence explosion shockwave propagates from math → physical sciences → planetary systems, Dyson swarm by early 2030s. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Calabi-Yau Orientifold Hypersurfaces and their F-theory Uplifts	arxiv 2026-06-17	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will San Francisco Giants win the 2026 National League Championship Series?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs(market prob: 42%)	polymarket 2026-06-20	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-06-19	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?(market prob: 67%)	polymarket 2025-11-21	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-06-10	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Spread: Spain (-1.5)(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	🇨🇩COD vs 🇺🇿UZB [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-20	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇨🇴COL vs 🇵🇹POR [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-20	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇭🇷CRO vs 🇬🇭GHA [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-20	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	🇵🇦PAN vs 🇬🇧ENG [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-20	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)(market prob: 54%)	manifold 2026-06-20	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	FDA ANDA218900: TOFACITINIB CITRATE (TOFACITINIB CITRATE) — SAPTALIS PHARMS	fda 2026-06-09	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	Will Bradley Barcola be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-24	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2026-02-09	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	230_032 Near future will see multiple spheres of influence each independently locking itself in (geopolitically). Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Spread: Algeria (-1.5)(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2026-01-28	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5(market prob: 54%)	polymarket 2026-06-09	S_MARS_2031PLUS Mars uncrewed: 2031+ transfer window or further delay	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	will x have a significant other by the end of ross(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-06-21	242_049 W-2 income will get pummeled over next 3 years; assets will appreciate Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	🇯🇴JOR vs 🇦🇷ARG [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-21	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	Will Putin lose his position as President of Russia before the end of his term, May 6, 2030?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-06-20	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-03-03	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.57	Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-05-21	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-05	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-06-16	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-06-18	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026(market prob: 14%)	manifold 2026-06-22	CYB_016 Rural landscapes in the Global South move beyond conventional food production toward highly complex, multifunctional systems — agentic AI platforms synthesize localized ecological data to enable precision organic farming, transparent environmental prot... Peter Dannenberg	Other	42%
0.57	What will be the total number of FIFA world cup markets created on Manifold by July 15?	manifold 2026-06-21	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	🇩🇿ALG vs 🇦🇹AUT [World Cup '26]	manifold 2026-06-21	229_027 Figure's only serious competitive threat for humanoids is China; no US/Western player registers today. Brett Adcock	Geopolitics	41%
0.57	Nextpower Inc. (NXT) (CIK 0001852131)	edgar_8k 2026-06-22	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Sidus Space Inc. (SIDU) (CIK 0001879726)	edgar_8k 2026-06-22	SPC_001 The global space industry, roughly $350 billion today, will surge past $1 trillion by 2040 — fueled by higher launch cadences, new product introductions, and mature policy support characterizing the 2026 fiscal landscape. Morgan Stanley	Space	60%
0.57	Spread: Pistons (-10.5)(market prob: 50%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	246_054 Blue Origin gearing up to be first-tier competitor with SpaceX for moon missions. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	37%
0.57	Netanyahu out by April 30?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-17	246_011 Elon will feel Grok is ready to take over as CEO in next few years. Dave Blundin	AI	42%
0.57	Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	243_001 Autonomous vehicle market will develop in a hybrid way, not binary all-or-nothing Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	44%
0.57	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Spread: Pistons (-9.5)(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-04-28	235_016 SpaceX IPO anticipated potentially as early as next month (April 2026). Peter Diamandis	Space	31%
0.57	Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	236_013 Democrats will no longer campaign in Iowa (DNC demoted Iowa) Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-03	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.57	Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-09	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?(market prob: 7%)	polymarket 2025-07-02	238_005 By September 2026 there will be 1000+ ultra-high-inspirational-quality videos of the future generated nearly free Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	39%
0.57	Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana(market prob: 31%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Will "Quick Paper Review: "There Will Be a Scientif..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-28	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.57	Will Cyprus join the Schengen Area by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-04-28	AI_002 Models matching the collective cognitive capacity of 'a country of geniuses in a datacenter' — acting simultaneously across all domains — could arrive as early as 2026 or 2027. Dario Amodei	AI	16%
0.57	Will I finish my library takeouts before theyre due?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-04-28	237_008 App stores will go away; users won't download apps but instead generate software on demand from local models. Alex Finn	Consumer	41%
0.57	Trump announce end of military operations against Iran by…? [Polymarket]	manifold 2026-04-28	241_042 Post-tragedy, global leaders (US, China) will convene on AI governance Eric Schmidt	Geopolitics	44%
0.57	Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-04-28	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	Will I solve an Erdos problem?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-04-27	238_021 Math, science, engineering, and medicine will all be solved by AI Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]	manifold 2026-04-27	248_038 We will see humanoid robot threats alongside the current Sam Altman backlash. Salim Ismail	Robotics	34%
0.57	Will at least one World Marathon Major be won under 2 hours every year until end of 2029?(market prob: 77%)	manifold 2026-04-26	248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	53%
0.57	UEFA Champions League 2025/26 final [Genuine Prediction](market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-04-24	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) (CIK 0001326801)	edgar_8k 2026-04-29	CMQ_049 Traditional tech giants (Apple, Meta, Microsoft) with massive existing platform distribution will capture monopolistic shares of the consumer AI agent market via deep OS-level integration. Jason Calacanis	AI/Markets	50%
0.57	Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?(market prob: 66%)	polymarket 2026-04-21	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	76ers vs. Celtics(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-26	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	nasas artemis ii moonship returns home to its launch site after historic voyage	gdelt 2026-04-30	246_013 Artemis 4 crewed moon landing mission to south pole in early 2028. Peter Diamandis	Space	42%
0.57	article 6bc20232 6f49 545c ae2b 9e1e98ef7a59.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	bitcoin bestaende elon musks vater enthuellt ueberraschende bitcoin bestaende der familie 00 15640043	gdelt 2026-04-30	INF_069 Bitcoin's total addressable market will ultimately reach approximately $270 trillion — positioning it as "digital capital" and apex reserve asset, capturing global store-of-value demand currently distributed across real estate, gold, sovereign debt, an... Michael Saylor	Crypto	15%
0.57	article 4c6c4a65 427c 5e4d a07e e294a57bfcdb.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	68%
0.57	in clarifying testimony about openai elon musk says i literally was a fool 2000752455	gdelt 2026-04-30	SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban	Economy	30%
0.57		gdelt 2026-04-30	247_028 Musk doesn't care about $100 billion in lawsuit, cares about Sam/Greg departing Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57		gdelt 2026-04-30	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	article ca552487 4402 5a81 b6d9 dc82aa416d0a.html	gdelt 2026-04-30	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	12%
0.57	LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics - Game 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-09-17	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?(market prob: 9%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	AUT_012 True AGI arrives 2030-2035 (5-10 years from 2026) based on advanced 'world model systems' — current LLM architecture insufficient for generalized autonomy due to lack of temporal consistency and deep reasoning; world models inherently understand/simula... Demis Hassabis	AI	38%
0.57	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 21%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-07	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Cavaliers vs. Raptors(market prob: 61%)	polymarket 2026-04-25	234_015 Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	41%
0.57	Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	Will the US average gas price fall below $4.00 in May 2026?(market prob: 11%)	manifold 2026-04-30	FUT_011 By 2050: solar PV generation costs plunge below 0.5 cents per kWh in optimal geographic locations; below 1 cent per kWh across vast majority of globe; even in poorest-irradiance/highest-regulatory-burden regions costs not exceeding 1.5 cents per kWh. 2... Ramez Naam	Energy	45%
0.57	Lightning vs. Canadiens(market prob: 53%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis	AI	48%
0.57	Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship?(market prob: 10%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	248_010 AI capabilities will advance 100x in 2026 (by summer, potentially more). Dave Blundin	AI	31%
0.57	Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?(market prob: 5%)	polymarket 2025-06-19	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 6%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	241_027 China will win low-end robotic hardware race Eric Schmidt	Robotics	49%
0.57	How will I do in this month's manifold season?	manifold 2026-05-01	229_020 By end of 2026, Figure will be able to drop a robot into an unseen home and do fairly long-horizon work. Brett Adcock	Robotics	20%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Will France win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	235_007 AI regulation window is this calendar year 2026 before chaos breaks out. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-02?(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-04-05	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-04-05	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Map Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	CMQ_037 Samsung will grow global HBM market share from 20% to 28% by securing majority of orders for Vera Rubin-exclusive HBM4. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	24%
0.57	Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha(market prob: 55%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	76ers vs. Knicks(market prob: 30%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?(market prob: 28%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.57	Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-01-21	241_005 2026 is the year of agents - agents will take over everything this year Eric Schmidt	AI	50%
0.57	If the filibuster is ended by the midterms, what will the outcome of the 2026 US House and Senate elections be?	manifold 2026-05-03	241_011 By end of 2026, no one will write code manually - it'll be a quaint skill Peter Diamandis	Labor/Jobs	47%
0.57	If the filibuster is ended by the midterms, what will the outcome of the 2026 US House and Senate elections be?	manifold 2026-05-03	INF_047 2026 US GDP growth will land in a robust 4.6%–6.2% range — driven primarily by AI-driven productivity gains and massive physical-infrastructure capex. Chamath Palihapitiya	Macro/Economy	31%
0.57	Who will campaign for Graham Platner?	manifold 2026-05-03	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?(market prob: 3%)	polymarket 2025-12-06	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?(market prob: 80%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	CMQ_027 The inference inflection has arrived — industry transitioning from training-dominated capex (2023-2025) to inference-dominated economics (2026+). Jensen Huang	AI/Compute	92%
0.57	Will Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?(market prob: 46%)	manifold 2026-05-04	INF_014 Data-center industry could emit up to 2.5 billion tons of CO2 cumulatively through 2030 if powered primarily by fossil fuels — a scale that materially delays global climate-pledge compliance. Morgan Stanley	Energy	42%
0.57	This market resolves to what the opposite of the different one (resolves at the opposite as me) Calendar Rotation Year!(market prob: 48%)	manifold 2026-05-04	TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	25%
0.57	Will Israel recognise civil marriages performed domestically by the end of 2027?(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-03	S_AI_PAUSE_2027 AI pause beginning 2027	ai_regulatory_pause	10%
0.57	LoL: BIG vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group A(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	231_015 Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	Counter-Strike: NeverPlay vs Pitstop crew (BO3) - Exort Series Contenders Stage(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	231_018 Blitz will switch to next generation model in late March 2026. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	Chess: Winner of GCT Super Rapid & Blitz 2026	manifold 2026-05-05	243_005 There will be many many winners in the autonomous space Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	47%
0.57	Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) (CIK 0001679788)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	CMQ_060 Bitcoin will reach $21 million per coin by 2046 — driven by unprecedented political, regulatory, and policy shifts in the US. Michael Saylor	Crypto	20%
0.57	Schrodinger, Inc. (SDGR) (CIK 0001490978)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	SEM_009 The AI boom rooted in semiconductor hardware will generate the world's first individual trillionaire (2026+). Mark Cuban	Economy	30%
0.57	Schrodinger, Inc. (SDGR) (CIK 0001490978)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	S_GRID_50GW_2027 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	40%
0.57	PROCORE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (PCOR) (CIK 0001611052)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) (CIK 0001633917)	edgar_8k 2026-05-05	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) (CIK 0001326801)	edgar_8k 2026-05-04	CMQ_049 Traditional tech giants (Apple, Meta, Microsoft) with massive existing platform distribution will capture monopolistic shares of the consumer AI agent market via deep OS-level integration. Jason Calacanis	AI/Markets	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA079099: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — GLENMARK PHARMS LTD	fda 2026-04-17	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	FDA NDA022063: MYDAYIS (AMPHETAMINE ASPARTATE) — TAKEDA PHARMS USA	fda 2026-04-23	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	FDA ANDA219897: PIMOZIDE (PIMOZIDE) — NOVITIUM PHARMA	fda 2026-04-13	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA213093: ANDA213093 ((unspecified)) — QILU PHARM CO LTD	fda 2026-04-29	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA213093: ANDA213093 ((unspecified)) — QILU PHARM CO LTD	fda 2026-04-29	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA206252: QUETIAPINE FUMARATE (QUETIAPINE FUMARATE) — ACCORD HLTHCARE	fda 2026-04-22	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA215575: ANDA215575 ((unspecified)) — QILU PHARM HAINAN	fda 2026-04-15	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA217772: FOSFOMYCIN TROMETHAMINE (FOSFOMYCIN TROMETHAMINE) — AUCTA	fda 2026-04-09	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	FDA ANDA220221: VERICIGUAT (VERICIGUAT) — TORRENT PHARMACEUTICALS LTD	fda 2026-04-20	248_030 FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	FDA NDA018900: METRO I.V. IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (METRONIDAZOLE) — B BRAUN	fda 2026-04-23	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA ANDA220264: VERICIGUAT (VERICIGUAT) — CHANGZHOU PHARMACEUTICAL FACTORY	fda 2026-04-08	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA220269: NITROFURANTOIN (MONOHYDRATE/MACROCRYSTALS) (NITROFURANTOIN) — CREEKWOOD PHARMS	fda 2026-04-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	FDA NDA204026: POMALYST (POMALIDOMIDE) — BRISTOL	fda 2026-04-27	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	huggingface/transformers v4.57.1	github_release 2025-10-14	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.57	meta-llama/llama-models v0.2.0	github_release 2025-04-05	245_039 Colossal has not yet started work on dinosaurs, corals, dragons or Pokemon Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	45%
0.57	meta-llama/llama-api-typescript v0.1.2	github_release 2025-06-28	242_044 Base AI models becoming commodity; value migrates up the stack Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	tensorflow/tensorflow v2.14.0-rc0	github_release 2023-08-17	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	pytorch/pytorch v2.9.1	github_release 2025-11-12	248_048 AI models will move to a post-binary (sub-one-bit) numerical precision paradigm. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	34%
0.57	pytorch/pytorch v2.0.1	github_release 2023-05-08	240_021 Post-transformer architecture will be even more specialized than GPUs Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	1x-technologies/halodi-robot-models 2.3.4	github_release 2021-04-28	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.57	Spread: Knicks (-7.5)(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis	AI	48%
0.57	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?(market prob: 14%)	polymarket 2026-04-17	INF_070 Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen... Leopold Aschenbrenner	Energy	57%
0.57	Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - European Pro League Group B(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Manifest 2027 have the option to buy tickets using mana?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-06	235_011 PE fund will emerge shortly to buy medium/big companies and install AI digital twin infrastructure. Salim Ismail	Markets/Stocks	47%
0.57	Will Manifest 2027 have the option to buy tickets using mana?(market prob: 64%)	manifold 2026-05-06	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.57	Will I do something interesting this week according to me(market prob: 63%)	manifold 2026-05-06	240_046 Public interest in any alien disclosure will fade within one or two days Alex Wissner-Gross	Media/Ads	43%
0.57	AHPA: Adaptive Hierarchical Prior Alignment for Diffusion Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-05	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.57	AHPA: Adaptive Hierarchical Prior Alignment for Diffusion Transformers	arxiv 2026-05-05	ROB_013 Research foundations enabling seamless human-robot interaction in complex 3D physical spaces — algorithms translating human natural-language intent directly into complex robotic actuation eliminate hard-coded robotics engineering, allowing systems to g... Jimmy Ba	Robotics	62%
0.57	Contrastive Regularization for Accent-Robust ASR	arxiv 2026-05-05	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.57	Text-Conditional JEPA for Learning Semantically Rich Visual Representations	arxiv 2026-05-05	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Hyp2Former: Hierarchy-Aware Hyperbolic Embeddings for Open-Set Panoptic Segmentation	arxiv 2026-05-04	AI_015 Localized, decentralized open-source AI models — the 'Last Economy' — will form the backbone of AI infrastructure, stripping monopolistic pricing power from centralized hyperscalers. Emad Mostaque	AI	35%
0.57	Algebraic constructions of code lattices in Narain conformal field theories	arxiv 2026-05-05	230_008 AI will bulk-solve math, physical sciences, engineering, medicine, and material sciences. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Quasinormal modes and continuum response of de Sitter black holes via complex scaling method	arxiv 2026-05-05	241_019 AI scaling laws have not hit an asymptote yet Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	FDA ANDA217554: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — DEVA HOLDING AS	fda 2026-04-27	CMQ_035 HBM4 16-layer stack design (required for Vera Rubin) places unprecedented yield and capacity strain on global memory fabrication facilities. Jensen Huang / Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	FDA ANDA210154: LENALIDOMIDE (LENALIDOMIDE) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-04-27	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.57	FDA NDA214120: ONUREG (AZACITIDINE) — BRISTOL	fda 2026-04-09	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	FDA ANDA219593: PREGABALIN (PREGABALIN) — UNICHEM	fda 2026-04-30	CMQ_009 Altman's claim of doctor-level AI diagnostic capability within 2-3 years is 'pure nonsense' — fails to account for medical communication, diagnostic uncertainty, and ethical complexity. Demis Hassabis	AI	60%
0.57	FDA BLA761044: STELARA (USTEKINUMAB) — JANSSEN BIOTECH	fda 2026-04-15	INF_027 AI infrastructure applied to structural biology will compress drug-development timelines from approximately a decade to weeks — potentially eradicating many major diseases within 10 years. Requires localized high-speed InfiniBand networking inside the DC. Demis Hassabis	Biotech/Longevity	38%
0.57	FDA BLA761467: KEYTRUDA QLEX (PEMBROLIZUMAB) — MERCK SHARP DOHME	fda 2026-06-12	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA BLA761467: KEYTRUDA QLEX (PEMBROLIZUMAB) — MERCK SHARP DOHME	fda 2026-06-12	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	Spread: Thunder (-15.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	238_028 Anthropic plugins will enable market-by-market disruption (could short stocks and announce plugins) Emad Mostaque	Markets/Stocks	31%
0.57	Will Trump visit China by May 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	232_021 No chance AI will be paused in the next three years given current administration and China competition. Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	75%
0.57	Will Trump visit China by May 8?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-14	242_037 China will land on the moon before end of 2030 China (government)	Space	46%
0.57	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5(market prob: 51%)	polymarket 2026-05-06	247_010 Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory Dave Blundin	AI	40%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Will Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections?(market prob: 65%)	manifold 2026-05-07	COD_ROB_003 At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	33%
0.57	Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?(market prob: 6%)	manifold 2026-05-07	242_047 Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.57	How many people will attend London Office Hours #056 by 9pm on Tuesday, 12 May 2026? 🍻🥂	manifold 2026-05-06	236_003 Jobs will get whisked away in many firms in 2026 Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	CAR: Query-Guided Confidence-Aware Reranking for Retrieval-Augmented Generation	arxiv 2026-05-06	CYB_011 Consumer commerce shifts from 'search and click' to 'ask and buy' — persistent AI agents with hyper-personalized memory navigate budgetary limits, ethical brand preferences, dietary restrictions, and logistical requirements with absolute precision, sev... Alex Finn	Consumer	44%
0.57	A Hybrid Method for Low-Resource Named Entity Recognition	arxiv 2026-05-06	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.57	A Hybrid Method for Low-Resource Named Entity Recognition	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_055 Multimodal voice recognition powered by generative AI will serve as the default user interface for humanoid physical workers — speak instructions, robot executes. Brett Adcock	Robotics	29%
0.57	facebookresearch/habitat-lab v0.3.4	github_release 2026-05-07	COD_SPC_005 NASA Dragonfly launches on Falcon Heavy in the July 2028 window Codex Research Pack	Space	33%
0.57	facebookresearch/faiss v1.5.0	github_release 2019-05-30	SEM_047 At 200,000-GPU scale, orchestration becomes a literal 'battle against entropy' — single cosmic-ray-flipped transistor can derail 100k-GPU training run. Jimmy Ba	AI/Hardware	71%
0.57	facebookresearch/balance 0.14.0	github_release 2025-12-14	247_057 Parameter scaling race is over; frontier labs plateauing at 10T parameters Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	41%
0.57	Canadiens vs. Sabres(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis	AI	48%
0.57	Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-10	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	Towards Metric-Faithful Neural Graph Matching	arxiv 2026-05-07	235_037 Auto-regressive transformers and diffusion models will consolidate into one unified architecture. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Debiased Multimodal Personality Understanding through Dual Causal Intervention	arxiv 2026-05-07	AI_036 Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) will fail catastrophically when applied to superintelligence — because humans will be inherently incapable of evaluating the incomprehensible logic and actions of an ASI; therefore, aligning superintell... Leopold Aschenbrenner	AI	49%
0.57	MTL-MAD: Multi-Task Learners are Effective Medical Anomaly Detectors	arxiv 2026-05-07	AUT_002 Models excelling at highly structured mathematical benchmarks exhibit a 'unified capability substrate' enabling dominance in seemingly unrelated fields (coding, logical reasoning, scientific discovery) — the 'mathematical skeleton' of the technological... Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	59%
0.57	PRISM: Iterative Cross-Modal Posterior Refinement for Dynamic Text-Attributed Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-07	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.57	de Sitter Wavefunction from Quadrangular Polylogarithms: Chain Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-07	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.57	de Sitter Wavefunction from Quadrangular Polylogarithms: Chain Graphs	arxiv 2026-05-07	242_002 Long-term petawatt compute will come only from lunar mass drivers Peter Diamandis	Space	37%
0.57	Spin and Quadrupole Sectors in Nonrelativistic Gravity	arxiv 2026-05-07	231_004 The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	Time-Dependent Dynamical Dimensional Transmutation in the $SU(2)$ Gross-Neveu Model with Time-Dependent Interaction Strength	arxiv 2026-05-06	231_019 Feynman Grand Prize for nanotech (Drexlerian assemblers) could be solved in next 2-3 years. Alex Wissner-Gross	Other	39%
0.57	Time-Dependent Dynamical Dimensional Transmutation in the $SU(2)$ Gross-Neveu Model with Time-Dependent Interaction Strength	arxiv 2026-05-06	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	Perturbations and greybody bounds of Euler-Heisenberg black holes surrounded by perfect fluid dark matter	arxiv 2026-05-06	240_032 PSI's GPD will solve some of the hardest physics problems over the next few years Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Perturbations and greybody bounds of Euler-Heisenberg black holes surrounded by perfect fluid dark matter	arxiv 2026-05-06	242_043 AI models will distill down to a few million parameters as end-state Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	Primordial black holes from inflation: on the decoupling between large and small scales	arxiv 2026-05-06	248_022 Deepseek-style hyperdeflation moments from algorithmic innovation will become more frequent but less effective at causing price swings. Alex Wissner-Gross	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	Molien--Weyl Singlet Counting and BFSS$_2$--Factorization in Gaussian Matrix QM	arxiv 2026-05-06	247_050 Virtual cell achievable through classical scaling without quantum computing Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	44%
0.57	FDA ANDA060469: TETRACYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE (TETRACYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — IMPAX LABS	fda 2026-04-17	245_010 Breaking will pursue a human-body microplastic solution (supplement) in addition to environmental plastic degradation Ben Lamm	Biotech/Longevity	41%
0.57	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Qinwen Zheng vs Jelena Ostapenko(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Valorant: G2 Esports vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha(market prob: 92%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	237_017 The entire SaaS market is going to zero because features can be rebuilt in five minutes with agents. Alex Finn	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Avalanche vs. Wild(market prob: 56%)	polymarket 2026-05-03	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Spurs vs. Timberwolves(market prob: 65%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-03-24	236_040 CEO will be last to go in AI wave of automation Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	42%
0.57	Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10?(market prob: 35%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	242_035 S&P will see massive reshuffling with huge winners; no company can project FCF beyond 5 years Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?(market prob: 40%)	polymarket 2026-05-05	242_036 Mid-cap/small-cap firms with high-labor ops will triple FCF while multiple compresses Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	42%
0.57	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	242_047 Frontier AI may solve most diseases in 5 years Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	39%
0.57	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?(market prob: 12%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	SEM_023 No AI bubble — semiconductor positive trend will remain robust through 2026 with 'crystal clear' growth visibility into 2027. Joseph Moore	Semis/Markets	63%
0.57	@MarySmith attends Manifest '26?(market prob: 38%)	manifold 2026-05-07	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	229_001 Figure will put robots on its own manufacturing lines (BotQ) this year to build robots. Brett Adcock	Robotics	62%
0.57	Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals(market prob: 48%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-01-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?(market prob: 11%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	247_047 Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 Peter Diamandis	Energy	50%
0.57	What goals will I achieve this week?	manifold 2026-05-10	243_042 Within-hour delivery of anything to home is focus going forward Dara Khosrowshahi	Consumer	51%
0.57	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 11, 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.57	LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend(market prob: 71%)	polymarket 2026-05-02	229_005 The global humanoid robotics industry will consolidate to far fewer than 10 players. Brett Adcock	Robotics	36%
0.57	Game Handicap: TOG (-1.5) vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (+1.5)(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-08	242_033 Companies will race to 80% token spend / 20% salary; good by 2030-2032 Dave Blundin	Labor/Jobs	49%
0.57	Free Lottery (Cosmic Explorer)(market prob: 40%)	manifold 2026-05-11	238_012 OpenAI aspires to have 100 AI scientists winning 100 Nobel Prizes Kevin Weil	AI	38%
0.57	What format will 'Jet Lag: The Game - Season Nineteen' take? (Read Description)	manifold 2026-05-07	234_026 AI rent-a-human service feature of scoring humor/visuals will be gone in months Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	40%
0.57	facebookresearch/vrs v1.0.2	github_release 2022-12-14	S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026	robotaxi_deployment	40%
0.57	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-03-31	241_036 No frontier AI company will emerge in Russia due to war Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	Cavaliers vs. Pistons(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	AI_021 The 2026-2027 window is the 'Great Disemboweling' of white-collar employment — millions of mid-career professionals (junior software developers, legal analysts, corporate marketers) lose jobs within a 12-18 month timeframe; resulting unemployment casca... Andrew Yang	Labor/Jobs	46%
0.57	Valorant: Joblife vs WIP Esports (BO5) - VCL France: Revolution Stage 2 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-07	243_027 Joby end-to-end eVTOL service in Abu Dhabi launching end of 2026 Dara Khosrowshahi	Auto/Transport	43%
0.57	Will América FC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will América FC vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw?(market prob: 32%)	polymarket 2026-04-27	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2025-11-12	236_011 Independent/third party presidential run possible in 2028 election Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	46%
0.57	facebookresearch/HolisticTraceAnalysis v0.2.0	github_release 2023-05-22	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	10%
0.57	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 2.1.0	github_release 2025-11-11	241_031 Scientists don't agree yet on approach for recursive self-improvement Eric Schmidt	AI	48%
0.57	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.7	github_release 2025-01-31	COD_AI_001 Vera Rubin becomes commercially available across major cloud and OEM partners by H2 2026 Codex Research Pack	Technology	51%
0.57	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.5.2	github_release 2024-06-14	231_002 Grok 5 launches in March with massive expansion in training set, parameters, and capability. Dave Blundin	AI	30%
0.57	facebookresearch/projectaria_tools 1.1.0	github_release 2023-08-07	240_020 New architecture won't map to current NVIDIA architecture; will create next Anthropic/OpenAI Dave Blundin	AI	46%
0.57	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	Spread: Pistons (-4.5)(market prob: 49%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	248_014 If China leapfrogs the West algorithmically, the open/closed publication equilibrium will flip. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	32%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	240_009 Government will intervene if NVIDIA does 10-year forward contract locking up TSMC Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	45%
0.57	Who will be North Sumatra rank 1 on the provincial round of 2026 Indonesia National Math Olympiad?	manifold 2026-05-13	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	MICROVISION, INC. (MVIS) (CIK 0000065770)	edgar_8k 2026-05-13	SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). Jensen Huang	Manufacturing	86%
0.57	Manifold Sampling via Entropy Maximization	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_003 Superforecaster consensus assigns 0.38% probability to AI-driven human extinction by 2100 vs domain-expert consensus of 3% — ~8x discrepancy per XPT 2022 adversarial collaboration tournament (89 superforecasters + 80 domain experts). Superforecasters m... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	EHR-RAGp: Retrieval-Augmented Prototype-Guided Foundation Model for Electronic Health Records	arxiv 2026-05-12	FUT_020 Profound structural collision: exponential AI cognitive bandwidth (Webb LAMs FUT_004) colliding with Zeihan demographic atrophy (FUT_007) forces corporations + sovereign states to delegate supply chain logistics, financial forecasting, infrastructure m... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Labor/Jobs	45%
0.57	Learning U-Statistics with Active Inference	arxiv 2026-05-12	248_023 Ternary (sub-bit) parameter precision will be optimal for AI models. Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	FDA BLA761053: OCREVUS (OCRELIZUMAB) — GENENTECH INC	fda 2026-05-08	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	FDA BLA761053: OCREVUS (OCRELIZUMAB) — GENENTECH INC	fda 2026-05-08	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA ANDA071198: LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM (LEUCOVORIN CALCIUM) — BARR	fda 2026-05-05	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 97%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	232_013 Recursive self-improvement loops likely to go live in the next 12 months; 2026 will be the most consequential year for humanity. Jimmy Ba	AI	47%
0.57	Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 15%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	Paris: Madison Keys vs Sarah Rakotomanga(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	IND_011 2024-2026 window represents 'AI's iPhone moment' — tech ecosystem moves rapidly beyond simple chatbots to living autonomous AI agents; this shift fundamentally breaks traditional SaaS business model, transitioning economy toward outcome-based pricing r... Jason Calacanis	Macro/Economy	58%
0.57	Will Android succeed in making it harder to side-load apps(market prob: 85%)	manifold 2026-05-14	CYB_009 Hardware-software alignment will force widespread foundational-codebase rewrites — exemplified by Midjourney's strategic migration from Google TPU architecture to native GPU framework, enabling hyper-fast personalization, HD generation, and massive par... David Holz	AI	77%
0.57	Unity Software Inc. (U) (CIK 0001810806)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	COD_ROB_002 1X ships first paid NEO Early Access units to US homes in 2026 Codex Research Pack	Robotics	27%
0.57	ROBERT HALF INC. (RHI) (CIK 0000315213)	edgar_8k 2026-05-14	SEM_028 Main characters for semi institutional portfolios: Nvidia, Broadcom, and high-growth connectivity firms like Astera Labs. Joseph Moore	Capital Markets	61%
0.57	ENSEMBITS: an alphabet of protein conformational ensembles	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.57	Towards a holistic understanding of Selection Bias for Causal Effect Identification	arxiv 2026-05-13	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	MLGIB: Multi-Label Graph Information Bottleneck for Expressive and Robust Message Passing	arxiv 2026-05-13	CMQ_063 Quantum compute integration with AI optimization algorithms and material-science discovery could drastically accelerate algorithmic efficiencies for Intelligence Explosion — potentially pulling superintelligence timelines closer. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum/AI	15%
0.57	FDA BLA761032: SILIQ (BRODALUMAB) — VALEANT LUXEMBOURG	fda 2026-05-07	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	FDA BLA761032: SILIQ (BRODALUMAB) — VALEANT LUXEMBOURG	fda 2026-05-07	FUT_019 Global market rapidly accelerates bio-industrial circumvention of fractured supply chains 2026-2031: combination of Webb agentic LAMs overseeing vast bio-reactors powered by sub-cent-per-kWh solar energy creates highly-localized completely-autonomous i... Multi-Forecaster Synthesis	Biotech/Longevity	31%
0.57	FDA ANDA215826: LEUPROLIDE ACETATE (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — ZYDUS PHARMS	fda 2026-05-06	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA NDA205422: REXULTI (BREXPIPRAZOLE) — OTSUKA	fda 2026-04-30	COD_BIO_002 An AI-designed Isomorphic or peer drug enters or completes Phase 1 by end 2027 Codex Research Pack	Biotech/Longevity	50%
0.57	FDA NDA022433: BRILINTA (TICAGRELOR) — ASTRAZENECA	fda 2026-05-07	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	FDA ANDA218148: ATROPINE SULFATE (ATROPINE SULFATE) — MANKIND PHARMA	fda 2026-05-07	240_056 Anthropic enterprise market share to continue growing (went from 40% to 73% in 3 months) Peter Diamandis	AI	54%
0.57	San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics(market prob: 46%)	polymarket 2026-05-09	246_006 OpenAI will IPO by end of 2026, Anthropic early-to-mid 2027 (may try end of 2026). Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Will "In the Grey" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?(market prob: 8%)	polymarket 2026-05-04	229_025 Competitors that can match Figure's current capabilities are at least two years behind. Brett Adcock	Robotics	46%
0.57	Sabres vs. Canadiens(market prob: 39%)	polymarket 2026-05-13	230_006 The frontier models will go dark — kept internal to benefit the labs in an all-out battle. Peter Diamandis	AI	48%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup prop bets	manifold 2026-05-15	242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	34%
0.57	PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) (CIK 0001633917)	edgar_8k 2026-05-15	TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis	—	12%
0.57	Smooth Multi-Policy Causal Effect Estimation in Longitudinal Settings	arxiv 2026-05-14	CMQ_042 As AI evolves from Generative to Agentic, structural computing bottlenecks shift away from GPU and heavily toward CPU and system memory. Morgan Stanley	AI/Compute	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA215260: SUGAMMADEX (SUGAMMADEX) — TAMARANG SA	fda 2026-05-12	IND_010 Autonomous orbital manufacturing (facilitated by companies like Varda Space Industries) will successfully return pharmaceutical products processed in microgravity that are commercially superior to those manufactured on Earth by 2026 — new Biotech front... Jared Isaacman	Biotech/Longevity	43%
0.57	FDA BLA761347: TECENTRIQ HYBREZA (ATEZOLIZUMAB AND HYALURONIDASE-TQJS) — GENENTECH INC	fda 2026-05-15	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	Will Putin visit China by May 31?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-03-31	235_033 Chinese eVTOL taxi service moving toward commercial operations in 2027. Peter Diamandis	Auto/Transport	52%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	S_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUS AGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winter	agi_general_capability	10%
0.57	Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5)(market prob: 62%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	FUT_024 XPT 2022 tournament assigned mere 2.3% probability to AI achieving gold-medal performance in International Mathematical Olympiad by 2025 — actual achievement empirically reached forcing systemic re-evaluation within forecasting community. Historical tr... Superforecaster Community	AI	100%
0.57	Will my nephew join Manifold before June 1?(market prob: 45%)	manifold 2026-05-16	247_045 1X Neo humanoid robot will be delivered this summer 2026 Peter Diamandis	Robotics	32%
0.57	FDA NDA021731: ELIGARD KIT (LEUPROLIDE ACETATE) — TOLMAR	fda 2026-05-06	233_019 Alpha plans to conduct a million-student pharmaceutical-grade randomized control trial on Timeback. Joe Liemandt	Education	35%
0.57	FDA ANDA212068: VASOPRESSIN (VASOPRESSIN) — SANDOZ	fda 2026-05-06	242_048 FDA will move to zero clinical trial model given enough Bayesian/computational evidence Alex Wissner-Gross	Biotech/Longevity	36%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.1.2	github_release 2022-04-12	238_038 Compute will remain scarce until Dyson swarm is built; scarce AI agent attention will be monetized Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	35%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.1.1	github_release 2021-08-19	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.7	github_release 2021-07-15	248_037 State data-center moratoriums will accelerate Dyson-swarm / orbital compute innovation due to constriction. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	10%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.5	github_release 2021-01-07	248_019 US data center moratoriums will push AI compute out to LEO / sun-synchronous orbit / Dyson swarm. Alex Wissner-Gross	Space	12%
0.57	facebookresearch/hydra v1.0.1	github_release 2020-09-15	241_049 Underage kids / AI vulnerability problem must be solved - line we can't cross Eric Schmidt	AI	51%
0.57	Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 16%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5)(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	233_009 A motivational learning bundle with video game designers will be released in 2026. Joe Liemandt	Education	36%
0.57	Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-05-11	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5(market prob: 70%)	polymarket 2026-05-17	235_025 Nvidia's margins unsustainable; cracks in armor but all chips made will sell. Dave Blundin	Markets/Stocks	45%
0.57	Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-17?(market prob: 45%)	polymarket 2026-04-20	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Round of 32	manifold 2026-05-17	235_027 Longevity VC market expected to grow from $8.5B in 2024 to $12-18B in 2026. Peter Diamandis	Biotech/Longevity	46%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Round of 32	manifold 2026-05-17	247_047 Vertical farming market will reach $40 billion by 2030 Peter Diamandis	Energy	50%
0.57	2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Round of 32	manifold 2026-05-17	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Spread: Thunder (-6.5)(market prob: 52%)	polymarket 2026-05-16	234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	67%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 64%)	polymarket 2026-05-15	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	233_011 Government ministries of education globally will wait and see until dramatically more proof exists before adoption. Joe Liemandt	Education	37%
0.57	Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-02-05	247_018 First version of social contract will be politicians writing checks in next election Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	46%
0.57	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?(market prob: 4%)	polymarket 2026-04-29	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	10%
0.57	Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners(market prob: 41%)	polymarket 2026-05-12	247_042 Professional Robotics League first US match on April 19, 2026 in Boston Alex Wissner-Gross	Robotics	65%
0.57	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House(market prob: 47%)	polymarket 2025-07-11	236_012 An independent candidate will get outsized support in 2028 despite attacks Andrew Yang	Geopolitics	51%
0.57	Do you like 2% odds?(market prob: 2%)	manifold 2026-05-18	246_023 Grok 5 release ~20% probability for Q2 2026 per PolyMarket. PolyMarket	AI	43%
0.57	CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) (CIK 0001769628)	edgar_8k 2026-05-18	231_017 A major supply chain attack from untrusted open-weight code generation models is absolutely a threat vector. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	42%
0.57	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?(market prob: 34%)	polymarket 2026-03-30	230_034 Abundance will be achieved by 2035. Peter Diamandis	Macro/Economy	41%
0.57	Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2025-07-03	247_025 Super PACs will determine election outcomes at order of magnitude bigger than before Dave Blundin	Geopolitics	50%
0.57	DashAttention: Differentiable and Adaptive Sparse Hierarchical Attention	arxiv 2026-05-18	240_013 Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs Sam Altman	AI	41%
0.57	FDA ANDA210689: FOSAPREPITANT DIMEGLUMINE (FOSAPREPITANT DIMEGLUMINE) — LUPIN	fda 2026-04-30	CMQ_010 True AGI requires genuine scientific-discovery capabilities (AlphaFold-class breakthroughs) — brute-force LLM scaling alone is insufficient. Demis Hassabis	AI	49%
0.57	Will David Njoku play for Kansas City Chiefs in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	237_010 In the next 2 years, everyone's AI agent will have a crypto wallet filled with USDC. Alex Finn	Crypto	43%
0.57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?(market prob: 1%)	polymarket 2026-05-22	240_045 White House to disclose something about aliens/UAPs in the next few months (rumors of June/July/summer) Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	39%
0.57	Will David Njoku play for Denver Broncos in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	S_MARS_2026 Mars uncrewed: 2026 transfer window	mars_uncrewed_landing	25%
0.57	Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #2 Playoffs(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	CMQ_036 SK Hynix will maintain industry HBM lead, capturing >50% of NVIDIA's total HBM procurement (HBM3E + HBM4) throughout 2026. Morgan Stanley	Semis/Memory	68%
0.57	Will David Njoku play for New Orleans Saints in 2026-27?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-03-02	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?(market prob: 0%)	polymarket 2026-04-13	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?(market prob: 90%)	polymarket 2026-05-26	246_022 Claude Mythos will NOT be released publicly near-term (PolyMarket ~7%). PolyMarket	AI	45%
0.57	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-04-23	238_061 Massive social unrest / trough in 2026-2027, rebound in 2028 Dave Blundin	Macro/Economy	50%
0.57	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-25	COD_SPC_002 The next US crewed lunar surface landing occurs on Artemis IV in 2028 Codex Research Pack	Space	22%
0.57	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?(market prob: 2%)	polymarket 2026-04-22	FUT_009 Wars 2026-2031 pivot decisively from ideological struggles to brutal localized conflicts over critical physical inputs — specifically energy, copper, and agricultural fertilizers. Global geopolitical map fractures into highly regionalized spheres of in... Peter Zeihan	Geopolitics	42%
0.57	What will the national average gas price be on July 1st?	manifold 2026-05-28	246_004 SpaceX will come out at $2T and run up very quickly to $3T. Peter Diamandis	Markets/Stocks	50%
0.57	Will 200 or more ships cross the straight of Hormuz in a day in 2026?(market prob: 47%)	manifold 2026-05-27	236_004 Amount of change between now and 2028 will be like nothing we've ever seen Dave Blundin	AI	50%
0.57	Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?(market prob: 31%)	manifold 2026-05-27	240_008 NVIDIA export controls will get even more aggressive in coming months Alex Wissner-Gross	Geopolitics	38%
0.57	Will my resin casted pepperoni mold within one year from today?(market prob: 81%)	manifold 2026-05-26	240_019 Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year Dave Blundin	AI	45%
0.57	Which site will have the highest average team score at ARML 2026?	manifold 2026-05-25	235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). Dave Blundin	AI	75%
0.57	Wikipedia's article on xAi's successor to Grokipedia under title Encyclopedia Galactica by Christmas eve 2027?(market prob: 9%)	manifold 2026-05-25	INF_007 OpenAI will dominate global AI data-center capacity by 2027 — centralization of compute power that parallels monopolistic utilities of the early industrial age. Alex Wissner-Gross	AI	43%
0.57	Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) (CIK 0001326801)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	CMQ_049 Traditional tech giants (Apple, Meta, Microsoft) with massive existing platform distribution will capture monopolistic shares of the consumer AI agent market via deep OS-level integration. Jason Calacanis	AI/Markets	50%
0.57	BXP, Inc. (BXP) (CIK 0001037540)	edgar_8k 2026-05-29	S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 First $1T+ IPO in 2026	ipo_trillion_plus	25%
0.57	Learning Context-Conditioned Predicate Semantics via Prototype Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-28	229_042 Figure believes there will be a single omni-model fusing language, vision, action, memory — not multiple specialized neural nets per task. Brett Adcock	AI	40%
0.57	Learning Context-Conditioned Predicate Semantics via Prototype Feedback	arxiv 2026-05-28	229_044 Positive transfer learning will continue to emerge, meaning more diverse data makes Figure robots broadly better at many tasks. Brett Adcock	AI	35%
0.57	Non-Perturbative Closed Form for the Typical Bipartite Mutual Information of Haar-Random States	arxiv 2026-05-28	CMQ_062 Physicists are successfully demonstrating quantum interference with increasingly larger physical masses — rapid quantum-hardware advancement. Alex Wissner-Gross	Quantum	62%
0.57	FDA ANDA212682: NEBIVOLOL HYDROCHLORIDE (NEBIVOLOL HYDROCHLORIDE) — PRINSTON INC	fda 2026-05-20	SEM_026 Nvidia's next 'Rubin' product cycle is the most critical factor for semi industry in coming year — further integrates logic + HBM. Joseph Moore	Semis/Products	71%
0.57	Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev(market prob: 100%)	polymarket 2026-05-29	247_036 Google's Q-Day for quantum breaking RSA moved up to 2029 Google	AI	46%